Need help from a math major

Br0nxer · 08-15-11, 07:57 AM

Shoot. Recent harvard graduate here. Majored in math.

ACoochy · 08-15-11, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by hornsrgrt

Ok...my local guy is moving the lines so bad I can offset the bet in Vegas and lock in some $ on a handful of games. For example, today he has the Rangers at -175 and LAA at +155. I can bet the Rangers elsewhere at -147. I am betting the dog with the local guy at the max bet...3000 per game...I can manipulate within a spreadsheet to determine the midpoint of locking in the profit to the point I don't care who wins.... In this case I could bet the dog with the local and the payout would be $4,650 while I could bet $4,550 to win $3,095 in Vegas on the favorite....basically I win $95 if the favorite wins or $100 if the dog wins... Is there a way to come up with a formula based on the odds of both teams if I just want to lock in the middle? This has worked like a charm over the last 8 days...up 8k....and heading back to Vegas in the morning...

Find a arbitrage calculator...Google it as it will be ur best friend when working out %

milwaukee mike · 08-15-11, 08:11 AM

with the spread being around $100 i wouldn't worry too much about $5 or so either way, it will even out in the long run. just rough it out like you've been doing or lean the profits more to the side you like.
can't believe you found a local that takes $3000 bets, and has enough lines that far off to let you be up $1000/day (that's 10 games/day??!!)

hornsrgrt · 08-15-11, 08:52 AM

getting closer to $150 to $250 per game....anywhere from 4 to 6 games where lines are off..

wantitall4moi · 08-15-11, 09:29 AM

LOL thats just an 8 cent arbitrage. A little less than 33 bux a thousand. No math major required. Thats how and why baseball was a gold mine. Now with bad limits and more books moving on air it is harder to do.

There are ways to fool around with it. But for no risk balance it out. you can take some shots with Runlines, or go a little heavier on one side than the other and just have a break even side. In this case you take 3K on the Angels if they win you profit 240 if Rangers win you break even. Or if you think your bookie is 'sharp' with his heavy Rangers line you bet the -147 and then bet an Angels line somewhere else.

Problem is he is dealing 20 cent lines, if he had a dime line Angels would be 165, and you more than double your profits.

gamemastere · 08-15-11, 09:30 AM

Arbitrage Calculator

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/arbitrage-calculator/

ACoochy · 08-15-11, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by gamemastere

Arbitrage Calculator http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/

Thanks Gamer...Knew there was one there somewhere...

wantitall4moi · 08-15-11, 12:14 PM

that calculator doesnt work, or at least doesnt give a balanced result. It still forces you to do the math yourself. It is basically showing the hold a book would have if they gave those sets of numbers out.

Glitch · 08-15-11, 12:21 PM

scalpulator.com

Rich Boy · 08-15-11, 12:22 PM

Scalpulator is simple to use

http://www.scalpulator.com/

wantitall4moi · 08-15-11, 12:29 PM

lol same thing. nvm had wrong prop marked.

edit, the formula is irrelevant, all you need to know is that the ROI is constant for every break point. And every 5 cents is .8%. So you should be able to do it in your head, especially if you do it long enough.

Glitch · 08-15-11, 12:31 PM

closest thing to that we had on the internet was bodog right? big dog lines.

wantitall4moi · 08-15-11, 01:07 PM

all scalps/arbitrages do is turn the player into the bookie and gives the player the advantage of balancing his action perfectly, to where he locks in a predetermined profit depending on what action he takes.

some guys used to use sharp lines at a book they thoght was sharp anyway and then bet into 'soft' lines at a book that was perceived as less smart. Some did well others didnt. But in doing this they also set up even larger spreads around the market. These days it just doesnt happen. But people will still look at places like Pinnacle, and the greek and a few other books deemed as 'sharp' and use them as a barometer.

I always laughed at this and still do, as we habitually beat Pinnacle on their openers as well as scalping the crap out of them when their software moved numbers too much. But credit to them they never complained or flagged my account. Nor did they pull the shenanigans other books use like different odds for different accounts or selective limiting of limits. Even after I had to re-open when they closed to US players it was the same. That is why Pinnacle was the best, not because they are supposedly better than everyone else in terms of putting up a 'good' line. But because they booked the old fashioned way and werent afraid to do it. That is why I always laughed at people scared of them, but also why Pinnacle thrived, because they used that fear to keep players at bay or at least hoonest.

hornsrgrt · 08-15-11, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by gamemastere

Arbitrage Calculator

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/

thanks....this works great...

uva3021 · 08-15-11, 03:50 PM

set it out algebraically

your ROI is 1-(155/255 + 147/247) = 1.27%

and optimal return in dollars is x = (100-x)*155/100 - 147 = 8/2.55 = $3.14

thus 100 - x = $96.86 on the underdog, and of course $147 on the favorite

hornsrgrt · 08-15-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by uva3021

set it out algebraically

your ROI is 1-(155/255 + 147/247) = 1.27%

and optimal return in dollars is x = (100-x)*155/100 - 147 = 8/2.55 = $3.14

thus 100 - x = $96.86 on the underdog, and of course $147 on the favorite

uva...thanks...I am still trying to figure this out...I am getting too old...
I am trying to write it in excel but I guess I can use the link above...
I couldn't even get back to the 1.27% on the ROI...
This is what I have wasted time trying to figure out...
Thank you again.

mr.inpak · 08-15-11, 04:45 PM

put your self in position to either win or push win with the bad line $1000-$1555 or $1447-1000 in the long run you will do better then even it out

uva3021 · 08-15-11, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by hornsrgrt

uva...thanks...I am still trying to figure this out...I am getting too old...
I am trying to write it in excel but I guess I can use the link above...
I couldn't even get back to the 1.27% on the ROI...
This is what I have wasted time trying to figure out...
Thank you again.

here, just enter american odds in blue cells

Attached Files

scalp_1.0.xlsx (9.1 KB, 176 views)

gamemastere · 08-15-11, 05:33 PM

Very generous with the points hornsrgrt, thanks!

Hope it helps you to continue making money. GL