Define "VALUE" Betting...??!!

[nikossf]

Is it different for each sports? how do you come up with your "value"? What constitutes value in a play?
momentum, bounce back, revenge theories..all welcome..

[BettingGeek]

Fading Brock and JJ are value plays

[iceminers26]

All sorts of different things for me and yes IMO it does vary sport to sport. I don't have any angles or shit like that, mostly just a feel or how I think it will go down compared to the line.

For instance I liked the Nats the other night at 2.5/1 because no way in hell should Hamels been that big a fav and the Nats were hitting the ball well the past few games, so IMO they had a shot and the odds justified me taking a shot on them.

For tennis, if I think a dog can force a 3 setter and the odds are there, say 2:1 or better... I'll usually take a stab on it because I feel its good value.


I don't really trend it out like some but can't blame them at times.... like SF's under streak in MLB... that was good value to ride that trend or the Rangers run there a month or so back.

[Rich Boy]

The payout is higher than it should be

[iifold]

A long term winning bet...

[BettingWizard]

The Mariners tonight were value


To me the situational stuff is seperate from the actual "value".

You come up with the value and then see if the situational stuff like revenge hurts or helps the value you are getting. Or sometimes you will go in reverse, look at the situation, and then see if the number is the right price for the side you are looking at.

[Jaug]

Probability defines value. You figure a team has 55% chance of winning and you get +100 then that is good value.

[wantitall4moi]

no such thing, just another term made up by touts then borrowed by wanne be sharps who think they are smart enough to know exactly what chance a team has to win then compare it to the given odds.

One way to look at is if you look at several factors in one game then determine how they compare to themselves. if a team is -5 and a ML of -140 then you might say the -140 is a 'value' line. Or it could just be that everyone thinks the dog will win SU and didnt bother with the points. No way of knowing. So to me that still isnt a value play, because it is still guessing.

The classic is always when these smart guy takea a game like that, tells people to hammer the ML, then lose 21-20 in a game with a last minute FG. They still claim their side had 'value' even though it lost. So the infamous 'right side, wrong result' comment. You had a favorite lose SU doesnt matter how, why or what the odds, they lost.

The only way I really look at value is if the team I like is paying more when I bet them at any other time. So they bounce around from -110 to -125, if I got them at -110 I got the best value. Doesnt matter if they win or lose I still got the best price.

So value iMO is not related to 'worth' whatsoever. It just means how much you had to pay for them. So if you played a team +165, they win but closed +173 you didnt get good value even though you won. So it goes both ways. A winning bet can have bad value.

[Rich Boy]

no such thing, just another term made up by touts then borrowed by wanne be sharps who think they are smart enough to know exactly what chance a team has to win then compare it to the given odds. One way to look at is if you look at several factors in one game then determine how they compare to themselves. if a team is -5 and a ML of -140 then you might say the -140 is a 'value' line. Or it could just be that everyone thinks the dog will win SU and didnt bother with the points. No way of knowing. So to me that still isnt a value play, because it is still guessing. The classic is always when these smart guy takea a game like that, tells people to hammer the ML, then lose 21-20 in a game with a last minute FG. They still claim their side had 'value' even though it lost. So the infamous 'right side, wrong result' comment. You had a favorite lose SU doesnt matter how, why or what the odds, they lost. The only way I really look at value is if the team I like is paying more when I bet them at any other time. So they bounce around from -110 to -125, if I got them at -110 I got the best value. Doesnt matter if they win or lose I still got the best price. So value iMO is not related to 'worth' whatsoever. It just means how much you had to pay for them. So if you played a team +165, they win but closed +173 you didnt get good value even though you won. So it goes both ways. A winning bet can have bad value.

Bets are won/lost before the game even starts

[Dirty Sanchez]

Fading Brock and JJ are value plays

Listen who's talking

[Demonata]

I define value by finals picks. No one should be heavily favored if they both made it to the finals.

[pavyracer]

There is no value unless you hit a winner. What's the value if you have Cubs +200 instead of +180 like the closing line and the Cubs lose 11-1?

[neverstoppers23]

I think sometimes people look to hard, and want to be too clever. For example people who took Pit yesterday, is something I will never understand. I have made money the last 3 years overall gambling and I just keep it simple. People want to over complicate the process.

[iifold]

The Rays +150 First Five Innings in the second game tomorrow night...

[iceminers26]

There is no value unless you hit a winner. What's the value if you have Cubs +200 instead of +180 like the closing line and the Cubs lose 11-1?

Its over time numbnuts... If I beat the closer by 20 cents per play, after a week, month, year ... I'm going to be up quite more than if I slept on the #. And to state to your losing theory, it too is over time... you lay 2 to 1 100 times in a row and I'll lay 1 to 2, I'll bet even though my winning percentage is lower, I'll be up in terms of units... which is all that matters. And yes if you want to take this as a challenge, I'm all for it.

[Naz18]

Fading Brock and JJ are value plays

Fail.....You would lose to the juice....

[Naz18]

There is no value unless you hit a winner. What's the value if you have Cubs +200 instead of +180 like the closing line and the Cubs lose 11-1?

Looks like someone has been spending too much time in Players Talk....

[SportsMushroom]

if a play has value is subjective

to find value in a line you have to make calculations which are based on many factors with no real numerical value, its all guess work essentially


and anyhow you think all these 'sharps' on sbr that come up with value plays actually sat down and did the math that actually determines if its a value play or not? they dont, they just pull a number out of their asses (take the yankees today they are -120 when they should be -140) their mind is so far ahead in the evolutionary chain that in 5 seconds they can come up with the correct line that is more accurate than the million dollar technology the books use to determine the lines

[pavyracer]

Its over time numbnuts... If I beat the closer by 20 cents per play, after a week, month, year ... I'm going to be up quite more than if I slept on the #. And to state to your losing theory, it too is over time... you lay 2 to 1 100 times in a row and I'll lay 1 to 2, I'll bet even though my winning percentage is lower, I'll be up in terms of units... which is all that matters. And yes if you want to take this as a challenge, I'm all for it.

I am up big time and never looked at the closing or open line ever. I just pick winners.