How to destroy the books in NFL PRESEASON WEEK 1..

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  • 4TH AND STUPID
    SBR MVP
    • 08-08-09
    • 2349

    #1
    How to destroy the books in NFL PRESEASON WEEK 1..
    11-5 2006
    9-7 2007
    10-6 2008
    8-8 2009
    11-5 2010





    listed above is the win-loss record (understated since it counts a PUSH as a loss) over the last 5 years in the NFL playing OVER/UNDER in week 1 of NFL preseason


    every year week 1 of nfl preseason has over/under lines understated with serious value on the over.


    give it a shot.... put 100 dollars or 1 unit on every single game in week 1 on the OVER at -110.




    good luck
  • dfresh
    SBR Hustler
    • 08-30-10
    • 53

    #2
    GL but this is not your normal offseason.
    Comment
    • KKoz9
      SBR MVP
      • 09-07-06
      • 1982

      #3
      Have to disagree, if you have to bet on these dog games then any blanket general rule like that is very shaky.

      I would always lean toward the under, especially the first two games. Backups play the majority of the games and the offenses are usually plodding, boring, basic, and ineffective.

      If anything, I think targeting in on games with new coaches, coaches that historically care about winning preseason games more (and have stated so) like Belichik, Shanahan, etc. or teams that have EXPERIENCED, capable backup QBs (Det, Dallas, Philly, Pitt, NYG, Cle, Oak, SD, STL) is a better strategy.
      Comment
      • warriorfan707
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-29-08
        • 13698

        #4
        preseason games tend to go under you meymon
        Comment
        • MLnflhandicapper
          Restricted User
          • 08-09-11
          • 6

          #5
          Wow
          Comment
          • SpreadSniper
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-17-09
            • 6125

            #6
            with the lack of training camp, OTA's and the overall struggles players have had to endure throughout the lockout, I would imagine that offenses will be pretty horrible across the board this weekend. Lots of guys are still not in football shape, timing is off and a lot of the rookies haven't even had a chance to learn the playbook.

            It's a lot easier for a defense to get back in the swing of things, they just run around trying to stop the guy who has the ball.... Offenses are much more indepth, involved and susceptible to "time off".

            This is going to be some of the ugliest football we have seen in a long time me thinks.
            Comment
            • warriorfan707
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-29-08
              • 13698

              #7
              defenses will struggle too though
              Comment
              • 4TH AND STUPID
                SBR MVP
                • 08-08-09
                • 2349

                #8
                Originally posted by warriorfan707
                preseason games tend to go under you meymon

                lol @ the b1tches doubting this thread.


                3-1 so far tonight on OVERS.



                and im 3-0 on sides as well


                this is what u call a fukin clinic
                Comment
                • Rich Boy
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-01-09
                  • 9714

                  #9
                  Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID
                  lol @ the b1tches doubting this thread. 3-1 so far tonight on OVERS. and im 3-0 on sides as well this is what u call a fukin clinic
                  Wow, thats an amazing smaple size

                  You sir are a GOD, congrats on destroying the books.
                  Comment
                  • 4TH AND STUPID
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-08-09
                    • 2349

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Rich Boy
                    Wow, thats an amazing smaple size

                    You sir are a GOD, congrats on destroying the books.


                    the total sample size is only 16 games moron, therefore a 3-1 start is pretty good..




                    im sorry you dont understand simple math nor can you read. typical attributes of hating degenerate posters like you, mad after a days worth of solid losing
                    Comment
                    • Shafted69
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 07-04-08
                      • 6412

                      #11
                      Not bad of a start here and thanks for the post.

                      Hope you go 15-1 and put all the books out of business.
                      Comment
                      • samdapatriotsfan
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-10-08
                        • 1585

                        #12
                        Nice sh1t 4th. I am gonna hop on the over for a couple of the Friday games as well. GL!!!
                        Comment
                        • Skidcom
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-17-06
                          • 1796

                          #13
                          Kinda wish I had read this post earlier. Maybe I'll switch to Overs GL
                          Comment
                          • BIGDAY
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 02-17-10
                            • 48245

                            #14
                            Good luck bro.
                            Comment
                            • Glitch
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 07-08-09
                              • 11795

                              #15
                              nice call
                              Comment
                              • Frostware
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 11-20-10
                                • 205

                                #16
                                ya that's a good start for sure. Wish I read it yesterday.
                                Comment
                                • KKoz9
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-07-06
                                  • 1982

                                  #17
                                  3-1 = +1.9 units

                                  it will even out or down through 16 games
                                  Comment
                                  • wantitall4moi
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-17-10
                                    • 3063

                                    #18
                                    well all the nay sayers who think it is a coin flip can now safely bet the unders since they should be dominant for the rest of the week right?

                                    Its like a guy who has a 'system' that he says is 20-6 and then shows part way through it is 5-0. Guys just make fun rather than doing what they contend would be 'smart' and bet for it to deviate back to the mean.

                                    so funny how guys that use math as an example dont have a frigging clue as to how it works.
                                    Comment
                                    • rfr3sh
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-07-09
                                      • 10229

                                      #19
                                      hope you do well tonight I'm not betting preseason though
                                      Comment
                                      • a4u2fear
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-29-10
                                        • 8147

                                        #20
                                        Why take a dumb luck chance at overs when there are obvious unders?
                                        Comment
                                        • 22dsnyd22
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 10-26-09
                                          • 386

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID
                                          11-5 2006 9-7 2007 10-6 2008 8-8 2009 11-5 2010 listed above is the win-loss record (understated since it counts a PUSH as a loss) over the last 5 years in the NFL playing OVER/UNDER in week 1 of NFL preseason every year week 1 of nfl preseason has over/under lines understated with serious value on the over. give it a shot.... put 100 dollars or 1 unit on every single game in week 1 on the OVER at -110. good luck
                                          actually... i have a hunch that books on the contrary customers who make plays based on stats like this... could be wrong though.
                                          Comment
                                          • bradleysnyder
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 04-18-07
                                            • 6662

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID
                                            11-5 2006
                                            9-7 2007
                                            10-6 2008
                                            8-8 2009
                                            11-5 2010





                                            listed above is the win-loss record (understated since it counts a PUSH as a loss) over the last 5 years in the NFL playing OVER/UNDER in week 1 of NFL preseason


                                            every year week 1 of nfl preseason has over/under lines understated with serious value on the over.


                                            give it a shot.... put 100 dollars or 1 unit on every single game in week 1 on the OVER at -110.




                                            good luck

                                            i would not call those records destroying unless your betting $10,000 per game
                                            Comment
                                            • cant call it
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-29-10
                                              • 8817

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by warriorfan707
                                              preseason games tend to go under you meymon
                                              Originally posted by warriorfan707
                                              defenses will struggle too though
                                              so which is it, over or under??
                                              Comment
                                              • Qtip
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 02-18-11
                                                • 367

                                                #24
                                                the lack of off season will hurt offenses, Under is the play week 1. Defenses less effected as they don't run on timing.
                                                Comment
                                                • JMUplayer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-27-09
                                                  • 2765

                                                  #25
                                                  I like looking at the QB matchups.... esp going against rookie starters or guys that just normallly are horrible but in line for a lot of snaps...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Superman455
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 09-23-08
                                                    • 366

                                                    #26
                                                    Thanks for the insight GL with you wagers
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BetWeather
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 06-30-10
                                                      • 796

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by JMUplayer
                                                      I like looking at the QB matchups.... esp going against rookie starters or guys that just normallly are horrible but in line for a lot of snaps...
                                                      Oh look everyone... somebody with a brain
                                                      Comment
                                                      • D3 Mighty Ducks
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-17-09
                                                        • 11939

                                                        #28
                                                        For some reason I don't think you're going to have the same kind of success like last night tonight.

                                                        GL however!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 4TH AND STUPID
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-08-09
                                                          • 2349

                                                          #29
                                                          i almost feel as if people on this forum don't like to see other people win, even when they share their info and picks with everyone else.


                                                          so many fukin haters its rediculous ! this isnt a 'system' or some crazy trend etc.... its a simple fukin thing . i laid it out very striaght forward yet people are still over-analyzing the shit out of it.

                                                          so many degenerates here man its jokes.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 4TH AND STUPID
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-08-09
                                                            • 2349

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by a4u2fear
                                                            Why take a dumb luck chance at overs when there are obvious unders?
                                                            so what were the 'obvious' unders tonight ?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • SprtsCapnGuru
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-16-10
                                                              • 1386

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID
                                                              i almost feel as if people on this forum don't like to see other people win, even when they share their info and picks with everyone else. so many fukin haters its rediculous ! this isnt a 'system' or some crazy trend etc.... its a simple fukin thing . i laid it out very striaght forward yet people are still over-analyzing the shit out of it. so many degenerates here man its jokes.
                                                              Nothing wrong with winning and showing it! Most on this site are haters and call out the losers, but when someone wins they want to justify why it won't continue! Keep doin your thing.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bobbyk1133
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-05-10
                                                                • 2245

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by 4TH AND STUPID
                                                                i almost feel as if people on this forum don't like to see other people win, even when they share their info and picks with everyone else. so many fukin haters its rediculous ! this isnt a 'system' or some crazy trend etc.... its a simple fukin thing . i laid it out very striaght forward yet people are still over-analyzing the shit out of it. so many degenerates here man its jokes.
                                                                I agree there are a TON of haters on betting forums. Trolls will always rule the internet. There are also just as many glory-hunters too.

                                                                So far your overs are lookin' good. Defenses seem to have no clue wot's going on in the 4th quarter.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Pete0
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-09-10
                                                                  • 3849

                                                                  #33
                                                                  so how is this system doing so far ?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Pete0
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 04-09-10
                                                                    • 3849

                                                                    #34
                                                                    bump.



                                                                    so how much did this system make ?? I would like to know.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • 4TH AND STUPID
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 08-08-09
                                                                      • 2349

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Pete0
                                                                      bump.



                                                                      so how much did this system make ?? I would like to know.




                                                                      as much as your mom made last night giving lapdances to old men
                                                                      Comment
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