"Fade the Public" Strategy

[TheMoneyShot]

Public wins in mlb if there willing to lay the juice , Phillies +21 units Astros -32 units for the year . It looks like the public wins more then they lose if you ask me.

That's why some books belly up in the Summer because they get hit hard on favorites in baseball. Basketball and Football... it's not like that.

[jjgold]

You have to raise an eyebrow when you have 75% on team A @ -133 and it closes @ -110....just my 2 cents

Why?? It could be sharp action

Extra Innings your a fukkin square

[Tech N9ne]

Brahma is obviously an idiot

He will be broke after a few weeks of football

[lakerboy]

\Now just get some real money up and u 2 can become an SBR Pro.. u have 0000 respect here cuz u claim to bet with pinnacle yet your Indian ass live's in East LA.. Pony up the 200 or u will be nothing more than the Mr. McFeely of SBR..

Thanks donker. You can come to brampton,ontario , canada anytime and we can meet up. I could teach a pro like you a few things about gambling. We can go for a nice $200 lunch.

[brahmabull117]

Brahma is obviously an idiot He will be broke after a few weeks of football

I'll fukk you till you love me fa\*\*ot

[Tech N9ne]

I'll fukk you till you love me fa\*\*ot

TR88 is that you?

It all makes sense now. Go post some more losing locks u dumbfukk

[brahmabull117]

TR88 is that you? It all makes sense now. Go post some more losing locks u dumbfukk

u mad brah????

[Tech N9ne]

Wow your such a high roller

Get it up to 5k then we can talk son

Run along now

[k13]

Week 1 Det at TB

Public will be 60/40 Det

Line is -3

If the line goes -2.5 who do you pick?
If the line goes -3.5 who do you pick?
If the line stays the same who do you pick?

[lakerboy]

If the line goes to -2.5 and u took det -3 you lost.at its current status of -3 you take bucs ml.not available I know

[brahmabull117]

Wow your such a high roller Get it up to 5k then we can talk son Run along now

y u mad tho?

[jjgold]

Bramer your not a square, I can see it clearly

Do not pay attention to who the public is one makes zero sense

[brahmabull117]

Bramer your not a square, I can see it clearly Do not pay attention to who the public is one makes zero sense

all I care about is winning that

[I/O]

I agree with most of what you're saying. But to completely ignore line movement is just as negligent as blindly following the public. Sometimes Vegas does bet on a side. They're not always 50/50 trying to rake the juice and most of us know this for fact, so it pays to watch the line movement.

The main point of your posts is to be an intelligent bettor, don't blindly tail vegas. And any long term winner here will agree with you. And being intelligent is creating angles any way you can and sometimes line movement factors into that. And sometimes Vegas bets a side and loses.

Edit: Fukk off pal

[Tech N9ne]

all I care about is winning that

[No coincidences]

jj's got to be loving this thread.

[icancount2one]

I took a 300 bankroll and turned it into 1500+ in 1 week gambling on a sport I have never gambled on before in my life (went something like 11-4 this week)



I do it by being an intelligent sports analyst, not by relying on silly gimmicks like you do

You're betting too high for your roll, cool sample size bro, etc.

I'm sure nobody has EVER thought of just betting heavy favorites. Have fun when the other shoe drops.

[brahmabull117]

I'm sure nobody has EVER thought of just betting heavy favorites.

I don't just blindly bet big favorites like a moron


I bet on games that have a very good chance of winning (much better chance than the odds would indicate)



for example, I put good money on the angels against the mariners. Yea it was - 250 odds, but the Angels are 11-0 at home against the Mariners when Jered Weaver is starting



I'll play - 250 odds everyday of the week when the favorite has an 11-0 recent record

[No coincidences]

Bramer your not a square, I can see it clearly

Do not pay attention to who the public is one makes zero sense

It has nothing to do solely with what the public is on in and of itself. That is only part of the equation. There are plenty of good public plays out there.

When RLM comes into play, you'd be foolish not to consider following sharp money -- and even more foolish fading it. For instance, if you like a -130 fave and it goes to -115 with the public on the other side, you need to either strongly consider the dog or lay off the -115. It's far from 100%, but it hits a hell of a lot more often than 50%, which is what we're all looking for.

[No coincidences]

I don't just blindly bet big favorites like a moron


I bet on games that have a very good chance of winning (much better chance than the odds would indicate)



for example, I put good money on the angels against the mariners. Yea it was - 250 odds, but the Angels are 11-0 at home against the Mariners when Jered Weaver is starting



I'll play - 250 odds everyday of the week when the favorite has an 11-0 recent record

You do realize what your win % has to be to make money long-term betting like this, right?

I would love to see a thread where you actually track your plays, because despite the fact that you claim to be up big, you've been buried multiple times in multiple sports before and we all know this. Keep a thread with tracked plays for a month in bases and see what happens.

[brahmabull117]

You do realize what your win % has to be to make money long-term betting like this, right? .

of course I do, do you think I'm stupid??



I play big favorites only when it's a very smart play. For example, the yankees are 18-3 when CC Sabathia starts against everybody except the Boston Red Sox


I'll lay 200 easily on a CC start against some scrub because there's an extremely high chance that the Yankees will win that game (much much much higher than the 2-1 vegas odds would indicate)



same thing with Roy Halladay, the phillies are 19-4 when he starts. That's an 83% winning percentage, I'll gladly lay 200 odds on him as well

[No coincidences]

of course I do, do you think I'm stupid??



I play big favorites only when it's a very smart play. For example, the yankees are 18-3 when CC Sabathia starts against everybody except the Boston Red Sox


I'll lay 200 easily on a CC start against some scrub because there's an extremely high chance that the Yankees will win that game (much much much higher than the 2-1 vegas odds would indicate)



same thing with Roy Halladay, the phillies are 19-4 when he starts. That's an 83% winning percentage, I'll gladly lay 200 odds on him as well

You ask this question, then support your "strategy" with this. I don't even know where to begin, other than to say good luck. You're going to need it.

[Inkwell77]

Espn streak for cash is an amazing tool for looking at which side the public is on. Especially if you don't have some service telling you what the side the public is on.
I understand the majority of the time these games are just win/lose, but I gotta say, there is money to be made by fading certain public plays in the streak for cash.
For instance, yesterday the Seattle Storm played the Atlanta Dream on the road. Streak for cash had more than 65% betting on the Storm. Yet, the line for the game was Dream -5 and started at Dream -1.5
Looked like a great example of a quality time to fade the public, and it worked.

[brahmabull117]

You ask this question, then support your "strategy" with this. I don't even know where to begin, other than to say good luck. You're going to need it.

good job ignoring the rest of the post like a fa\*\*ot

[No coincidences]

good job ignoring the rest of the post like a fa\*\*ot

We're obviously dealing with a kid here who thinks he's found the holy grail. Betting on CC and Roy all the time -- what a novel concept!

All I can say is good luck and keep posting your plays. In fact, I suggest tracking them in a thread.

[wantitall4moi]

That was another tout invention. After they had used up the 'inside info' angle, and the 'I am a great handicapper' angle, and 'I have an awesome database' angle they started out with the 'we know what the books are doing' angle. Which then lead to the 'we know the market' angle and the 'the public always loses' angle morphed out of that.

because they preyed on the guys who lose and dont think anyone can win. (which they cant, now especially) and fed it into the whole 'market' angle and it just took off.

Basically any angle or theory or process was invented by someone trying to sell it to someone else as a way to beat the system.

There is no secret formula to win at sports betting.

All you need is discipline, a decent bank roll (or the ability to stay within a budget regardless of size), and the ability to get the best possible number on the team you like when you want to bet. Thats pretty much it. Someone that is really good enough to win doesnt need all the angles or advantages peopel all love to talk about. It just helps them make more money. Sure prices, lines and limits have something to do with it. But that should just make a difference on how much you make. it shouldnt all have to be necessary to turn you from a loser into a winner.

If guys are that close to the break even mark in their ability to actually pick winners then they should be doing it for fun anyway. And only on certain occasions not on a daily basis.

[brahmabull117]

We're obviously dealing with a kid here who thinks he's found the holy grail. Betting on CC and Roy all the time -- what a novel concept! All I can say is good luck and keep posting your plays. In fact, I suggest tracking them in a thread.

except I don't bet on CC and Roy all the time. I want nothing to do with Roy against the cubs, I want nothing to do with CC against the red sox. I want nothing to do with either pitcher if the phillies/yankees offense is struggling


I'm not even gonna take Roy tonight against the dodgers tonight because he already lost to them and the dodgers pitcher tonight owns the Phillies



It's all about taking smart plays, yes I take some big favorites, but only if it's a very smart play

[k13]

Espn streak for cash is an amazing tool for looking at which side the public is on. Especially if you don't have some service telling you what the side the public is on.
I understand the majority of the time these games are just win/lose, but I gotta say, there is money to be made by fading certain public plays in the streak for cash.
For instance, yesterday the Seattle Storm played the Atlanta Dream on the road. Streak for cash had more than 65% betting on the Storm. Yet, the line for the game was Dream -5 and started at Dream -1.5
Looked like a great example of a quality time to fade the public, and it worked.

I took Chicago Sky ML (1.6%), Vancouver white caps ML (5%), KC Royals ML (5.2%) yesterday.

Streak 4 cash is great for a fade in the right situation/sports.

Very good in cfb/cbb/nfl, just have to watch late line movement too.


Can you believe this shit I'm picking a team that won 2 out of 22 games all year and I feel good about it.

[Tech N9ne]

We're obviously dealing with a kid here who thinks he's found the holy grail. Betting on CC and Roy all the time -- what a novel concept!

All I can say is good luck and keep posting your plays. In fact, I suggest tracking them in a thread.

[ehp6737]

Guy with a wrestler as his avatar = a booger eater posting from his parents basement = could care less what he thinks about gambling......or anything else for that matter

[brahmabull117]

Guy with a wrestler as his avatar = a booger eater posting from his parents basement = could care less what he thinks about gambling......or anything else for that matter

[Inkwell77]

I took Chicago Sky ML (1.6%), Vancouver white caps ML (5%), KC Royals ML (5.2%) yesterday.

Streak 4 cash is great for a fade in the right situation/sports.

Very good in cfb/cbb/nfl, just have to watch late line movement too.


Can you believe this shit I'm picking a team that won 2 out of 22 games all year and I feel good about it.

haha, the Whitecaps were a great play. Wasn't it Vancouver tie or win and everybody was still on Chicago to win outright!!!

When you think about how many people play streak for cash it is an unbelievable representation of what the public is on.

I'm taking the Braves today with the other 96.6% of the people on the site who bet that game!! lets get this streak to 4, haha.

[Extra Innings]

Why?? It could be sharp action

Extra Innings your a fukkin square

square following sharp. Ill assume youre playing stupid.

[Cap dat 4ss]

EI, quit over complicating this. Brahma is givng us a formula to free money baaically. EI pal, its all about taking smart plays. Thats it. Im gonna give ot a shot tonight and tell ya how it works out innings. First bet is phils ML. This is easy

[Extra Innings]

Arizona -180 was this jerkoff's play tonight....it's 9-0 Houston