"Fade the Public" Strategy

[brahmabull117]

why in the world do people still believe in this garbage???



you realize your whole "ZOMG I'm on vegas side" is a bunch of nonsense??



u realize vegas doesn't attempt to beat the public, they just try to hit 50% so they can mazimize the juice on both sides?? It boggles my mind how many people on this site think they will make money long term just betting the opposite of what the public does



you make money in sports gambling by being an intelligent bettor and good money management, not blindly following vegas' moves like a retard

[jjgold]

Solid post

Its a silly strategy

No way to tell who public is anyway

Fukkin squares

[Naz18]

Exactly it's the same retards that think they can make money blindly fading jjgolds spreadsheet....

[maersksealand]

why in the world do people still believe in this garbage???



you realize your whole "ZOMG I'm on vegas side" is a bunch of nonsense??



u realize vegas doesn't attempt to beat the public, they just try to hit 50% so they can mazimize the juice on both sides?? It boggles my mind how many people on this site think they will make money long term just betting the opposite of what the public does



you make money in sports gambling by being an intelligent bettor and good money managing, not blindly following vegas' moves like a retard

few years back I tried this one out...I had to stop after I lost something like 7 in a row...

[brahmabull117]

Solid post Its a silly strategy No way to tell who public is anyway Fukkin squares

exactly



make intelligent picks based on your own analysis, stop relying on silly gimmicks

[TheCentaur]

You've heard of Paul the Octopus? I've got Donald the Yellow Tang. That fish is money in MLB and college bowl games.

[k13]

So which teams will the "public" be on in week 1 of the NFL??? Against the spread obviously. GO.

Should be easy..

Edge is very small in every angle you look at it long term. You have to look inside the angle to create an angle angle to have a profitable edge. This is beyond the scope of your mind.

[brahmabull117]

have to look inside the angle to create an angle angle to have a profitable edge. .

[GunShard]

Playboy_1 fades the public multiple times and won money. The public was on the Clippers, he bet on the Cavs and won:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/938162-mark-my-word-lock-watch-cavs-night.html

Playboy_1 fades the public again. The public was on Lakers -11, he bet on the Cavs +11 and won:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/945849-those-who-thinks-lakers-will-big-night.html

Paco followed the public and lost money. The public was on Colts -2.5, he bet $6300 on the Colts -2.5 and lost:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/833025-6300-colts-2-5-a.html

The line movement is how you know where the public is dumping their money. Also pay attention to reverse line movement.

[Extra Innings]

You have to raise an eyebrow when you have 75% on team A @ -133 and it closes @ -110....just my 2 cents

[GunShard]

So which teams will the "public" be on in week 1 of the NFL??? Against the spread obviously. GO.

Should be easy..

Edge is very small in every angle you look at it long term. You have to look inside the angle to create an angle angle to have a profitable edge. This is beyond the scope of your mind.

Last season in 2010.
The public was on the 49ers -3 in Week 1, Alex Smith's 49ers -3 over Hasselback's Seahawks +3. The Seahawks won.

[Naz18]

GunShard your just picking specific examples....

[Extra Innings]

In the end, have fun explaining why a book moves a number from -120 to -105 with 3/4 of the action on that team.

[rfr3sh]

Well you can't blindly fade the public thatd be dumb there's more to it

[Extra Innings]

Well you can't blindly fade the public thatd be dumb there's more to it

[brahmabull117]

In the end, have fun explaining why a book moves a number from -120 to -105 with 3/4 of the action on that team.

why would I even give a sht in the first place???




you win in sports gambling by smart analysis and good money management, not relying on silly gimmicks

[Extra Innings]

why would I even give a sht in the first place???




you win in sports gambling by smart analysis and good money management, not relying on silly gimmicks

And sportsbooks stay in business by managing their lines appropriately. They pay attention to what side certain players are on

[tanner40]

Nothing is 100% but we only need to hit 53%.

"Fading the public" is a better strategy and will make you more money than following the public

[brahmabull117]

And sportsbooks stay in business by managing their lines appropriately. They pay attention to what side certain players are on

sportsbook stay in business by managing their lines to attempt to have 50-50 action to maximize the juice



is ur goal to be a 50% winner on your bets??? if not, then STFU

[Extra Innings]

sportsbook stay in business by managing their lines to attempt to have 50-50 action to maximize the juice



is ur goal to be a 50% winner on your bets??? if not, then STFU

I'll gladly take 50% on +130 while you and the public are hammering -170's. People like you make me a winner. Don't hate on me because you're a fukcin' loser...I make money in this game

[Cap dat 4ss]

why would I even give a sht in the first place??? you win in sports gambling by smart analysis and good money management, not relying on silly gimmicks

I agree with most of what you're saying. But to completely ignore line movement is just as negligent as blindly following the public. Sometimes Vegas does bet on a side. They're not always 50/50 trying to rake the juice and most of us know this for fact, so it pays to watch the line movement.

The main point of your posts is to be an intelligent bettor, don't blindly tail vegas. And any long term winner here will agree with you. And being intelligent is creating angles any way you can and sometimes line movement factors into that. And sometimes Vegas bets a side and loses.

Edit: Fukk off pal

[lakerboy]

you fade the public when they are heavy on one side and the line doesnt move in ats sports like the nfl and nba. i know when to fade the public and i know when to go with them.

[tatehill2000]

Now this is a muther fer that has it welcome to the world of

You have to raise an eyebrow when you have 75% on team A @ -133 and it closes @ -110....just my 2 cents

[Extra Innings]

you fade the public when they are heavy on one side and the line doesnt move in ats sports like the nfl and nba. i know when to fade the public and i know when to go with them.

I hope that's what the OP is talking about, at least that's how I think of it...guy comes off as a complete and utter dipshit so I guess he thinks fading the public is taking the opposite side of where the action is

[TheMoneyShot]

There's so many theories and explanations to look at. But if you think you're going to steam roll what where the Public is going... think again. Here's an example:

There were a few college football games last year in which the line opened up at -6.5 but everyone was on +6.5. On game day the line moved to -7 and then -7.5 but my service said 80% was on +7 and +7.5 right when Mirage moved the line to -8 (which they tend to do majority of the time) at game time I hit it for 2 units. There's no reason why the spread should go that direction. I went 3-0 last year in games opening up like that. You just need a keen eye... study your opening spreads etc.

National TV Games NCAA Football like ESPN at 7:45 Eastern doesn't matter who the favorite was last year... + Points won almost every time. If you wanted to play a system. Just take + points one week. Keep on doubling up.... The favorite never won 3 straight weeks last year. Football is where the money is made.... stick to your own systems and beliefs... and never doubt what you preach.

[brahmabull117]

I'll gladly take 50% on +130 while you and the public are hammering -170's. People like you make me a winner. Don't hate on me because you're a fukcin' loser...I make money in this game

I took a 300 bankroll and turned it into 1500+ in 1 week gambling on a sport I have never gambled on before in my life (went something like 11-4 this week)



I do it by being an intelligent sports analyst, not by relying on silly gimmicks like you do

[donkdown]

you fade the public when they are heavy on one side and the line doesnt move in ats sports like the nfl and nba. i know when to fade the public and i know when to go with them.

\Now just get some real money up and u 2 can become an SBR Pro.. u have 0000 respect here cuz u claim to bet with pinnacle yet your Indian ass live's in East LA.. Pony up the 200 or u will be nothing more than the Mr. McFeely of SBR..

[Cap dat 4ss]

So a guy has one good week in MLB and creates threads telling others how to be successful. Only on SBR. I'm heading across the street for a bit. I've been reminded why I'm not here as much anymore

Donk, I live in the US and bet pinny as do many others.

[Extra Innings]

I took a 300 bankroll and turned it into 1500+ in 1 week gambling on a sport I have never gambled on before in my life (went something like 11-4 this week)



I do it by being an intelligent sports analyst, not by relying on silly gimmicks like you do

Well if you went 11-4 I better keep my mouth shut and move along

[brahmabull117]

Well if you went 11-4 I better keep my mouth shut and move along

good choice, numbnuts. You're not even fit to carry my jock strap when it comes to sports gambling

[Extra Innings]

good choice, numbnuts. You're not even fit to carry my jock strap when it comes to sports gambling

I can tell by reviewing some of you're comments regarding the Arizona/Houston matchup...good luck slamming -200 plays

[brahmabull117]

I can tell by reviewing some of you're comments regarding the Arizona/Houston matchup...good luck slamming -200 plays

you win in sports gambling by maximizing value


I'll gladly play a - 500 moneyline if I perceive the real chance of that team winning to be 10-1



a -180 moneyline in this case (the astros/dbacks game) seems like a lot, until you do some research and realize that houston is like 2-12 their last 14 road games, 3-7 last 10 games vs Arizona and has lost 12 out of 16 games since the all star break overall



the real moneyline for Houston in this game should be like +600

[tonyp0387]

Public wins in mlb if there willing to lay the juice , Phillies +21 units Astros -32 units for the year . It looks like the public wins more then they lose if you ask me.

[chemicalbrother]

You have to raise an eyebrow when you have 75% on team A @ -133 and it closes @ -110....just my 2 cents

Well you can't blindly fade the public thatd be dumb there's more to it

blindly doing anything is dumb.

including a 'bet only when 60% is against your side' caveat in your model is pretty obviously profitable.

home underdogs in any sport where 60%+ is on on the road fave is a must in modeling. not saying by itself it's profitable, but when combined with other handicapping, it separates plays nicely.

[tonyp0387]

I can tell by reviewing some of you're comments regarding the Arizona/Houston matchup...good luck slamming -200 plays

And +170 is a smart bet? Taking underdogs doesn't make you sharp its all about cashing tickets.