Why Do People Make Sports Gambling So Difficult???

[pavyracer]

Sports gambling is simple. Pick winners and most times the price will work in your favor. I have never met someone who picks winners on a regular basis complaining about lines.

[Darkside Magick]

Its all tout speak.

before the internet, the touts sold "inside info" on their infomercials. Then when peopel got smart to that scam, they sold handicapping and ability to figure out which team had an edge based on thousands of games worth of data.

Then when guys all got the same data touts had to change their approach again. Then it was back to inside info. Which as it turned out was pretty factual considering how many schools were cheating. At least in the NCAA stuff. But they still couldnt win consistently enough for people.

So then they took their math and started selling varience, using the odds and changes to predict what guys were betting what way and then they evolved that into the so called originators versus steam chasers versus stale numbers guys. And that spawned its own genre of touts and forum warriors.

The only way to make money consistently betting sports is to play both sides with an edge, which right now is nearly impossible. You can try and beat it betting one side but to do that you have to pretty much get the very best number every single bet you make, which is almost as impossible as picking the right side in the first place.

Baseball is the easiest sport to make money at (aside from maybe WNBA, but the limits in the WNBA are so ridiculous that it is laughable) but at least in bases you can roll a few bucks over a couple times and make something somewhere near respectable in the 9 months you have. But once football starts guys will piss it all back again because the NFL is basically the biggest sucker season ever thought of. Yet guys think it is somehow their answer to riches. Pretty much the only way to make money in the NFL is to bet maybe 10-15 games a season for massive amounts and hope you go 90%. Trying to grind it out with so few games is a joke, and the so called variances and edges are meaningless with that few games played. by the time you think you have it figured out the season is over.

But it is the big time sports betting sport so it isnt a secret it is also the one where the books clean up and they actually start getting enough post ups to pay back the guys they have been slow paying all summer.

[GunShard]

I hear all this sht about variance and distribution, whatever the fck that nonsense is




all sports gambling comes down to is outsmarting the public. Vegas doesn't set lines based on what they believe is gonna happen, vegas sets lines based on what the public believes is gonna happen. If you can outsmart the average bettor (which is very easy to do) you can make a ton of money in gambling



and by outsmarting the public, it basically means that u continuously find teams and matchups that are severely overvalued or undervalued by the public and you exploit those situations. That's how you make money in sports gambling, not by any gay "system", not by following some phony "expert" and not by worrying about money line movements or variance



you make money by evaluating teams and matchups and finding ways to exploit the system by outsmarting the public

Duh. Read my signature above my avatar. That's been on there all year.

[MarlinsFan2212]

Nobody will say shit to you if you post every one of your picks for the next couple months.
If your hitting >55%, then keep doing what your doing.

If you dont post your picks, then you will always have skeptics.

[shari91]

Nobody will say shit to you if you post every one of your picks for the next couple months. If your hitting >55%, then keep doing what your doing. If you dont post your picks, then you will always have skeptics.

He's already tried that several times and failed miserably. Every time this guy flukes a win he starts a thread like this one.

Seriously dude, how many times are you going to make these threads? You've already been through this before on here. Twice. Remember the NFL season and your locks? You started a thread just like you did yesterday asking which books took big bets because you were such a big gambler. And of course you started to post plays. The kind of ones with titles like "you're an idiot if you don't take this under". Game goes over... brahma forgets the thread Finally you had enough and decided you were quitting gambling. I don't blame you because posters were literally calling you the Fade Machine in your threads. http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...-gambling.html But then you come back in April to start fresh and make a thread identical to this one now. Same thing: Ask advice but really you just wanted to brag about your supposed gambling superiority. Of course as predicted, you started to post NBA plays and again turned into the losing square who busted out. Yet now you're back. Oh and congrats on your great NBA playoff run when you stopped posting plays and disappeared. Amazing how that happens!

Don't waste your time. This kid has no hope of going pro. If anything his only hope is to become a tout but buries himself repeatedly with the losers he posts. If you're bored go back and read through his posts. Or save your time and just look at the ones from when he first joined in December. He starts an NBA thread to track his plays and admits that although he's new to gambling, his goal is to hit 66%. He bumps his empty thread an hour later because no one had given him any attention. The plays go 3-6 and the thread is dead before it begins. Then he apologises to someone in another thread for the slow reply as he was working on a class presentation but he found a line that was "tremendous" so he was putting a whopping $300 on it. Massive play for such a tremendous line. A few weeks later he made the "I'm quitting gambling" thread I posted above. Returns in April and starts the same thread as this one which is just his way of attempting to brag about plays he supposedly hit when he disappeared from the forum. He also made a duplicate of the where can I get big bets down thread he started yesterday in S&I. Posts NBA plays, goes busto and leaves. Now he's back claiming he went 18-4 on his break from SBR during the NBA playoffs and has gambling all figured out. Who needs math? Just pick winners. Just another attention deprived kiddie on summer break from school.

[jjgold]

Man this guy has been exposed
He should quit while he is ahead

[Bo$$ Bet$]

bro bull ima believer call me and give me a winner u fukk

[deltgen]

Thanks for exposing this guy, Shari91.

[Richkas]

I hear all this sht about variance and distribution, whatever the fck that nonsense is




all sports gambling comes down to is outsmarting the public. Vegas doesn't set lines based on what they believe is gonna happen, vegas sets lines based on what the public believes is gonna happen. If you can outsmart the average bettor (which is very easy to do) you can make a ton of money in gambling



and by outsmarting the public, it basically means that u continuously find teams and matchups that are severely overvalued or undervalued by the public and you exploit those situations. That's how you make money in sports gambling, not by any gay "system", not by following some phony "expert" and not by worrying about money line movements or variance



you make money by evaluating teams and matchups and finding ways to exploit the system by outsmarting the public

I think if you met all these guys your talking about...you would see a trend...all the math guys are pussies and know nothing about sports...

[dante1]

Just another unseasoned kid who thinks a run of two or three makes him invincible. He is on the path to finance companies, losing his pay check and kicking a can down the alley. These jokers are really funny I wish he would post I need some fade action.

[paco]

Dammmmmnnnnnnnn...

Shari just owned homeboy

[thechaoz]

Fade the mariners.... Make millions... Ez game

[LarrysKid]

@shari91-Well done exposing the fraud, you are an extremely valuable asset to this site. You can't go around bragging that you are an exceptional bettor when the evidence shows the contrary. Just admit that you are a less than mediocre capper and try to learn a few things from this site. My picks are crappy and every time I start a picks thread to try and keep myself honest and under control it's like hitting a doom switch. I hit like 30-40 percent and just give up and take a couple weeks off. The reason people make sports gambling so difficult is because it is difficult. If it were easy every schmuck would be making millions and retiring at age 40 to live on an island they purchased.

[No coincidences]

I just started betting baseball for first time ever - I'm already 2-0 after finishing the NBA playoffs with like a 75% winning percentage (I will be 3-0 after cards beat cubs today)



when are you morons gonna understand that I'm the real deal?

[No coincidences]

Hey bramha -- how's your asshole feel? Shari tore you a new one.

[greva]

Not the first time shari owns this kid..

He buried himself..

[d2bets]

The only correct answer is to make +EV bets, but of course there is more than one way to skin the cat. I'm of the opinion that a tiny fraction (and I mean TINY) of those who had the approach of "picking winners" (regardless of method or system) have won long-term, while a huge portion (nearly all with a clue) of those who bet based on line movement, arbitrage, middling, bonuses, etc. won long-term.

[Tech N9ne]

Everyone seems to have the answer yet most still live in their parents basement

[Glitch]

this reminds me of that gopher guy that kept poppin up every sunday during football season. lol remember that sh*t??? please someone know what im talkin about.

[kmarinouofm]

my favorite line... "i went like 75% in nba playoffs, i just started playing baseball for the first time and I am already 2-0"

wow... 2-0....

[shari91]

Everyone seems to have the answer yet most still live in their parents basement

No, most of us definitely don't have the answer. That's why a site like this is valuable. If we all had it, we wouldn't be here. Unfortunately you'll still get guys like this who like to purport that they know everything about everything. How about just string a decent record along after like 100 plays? That's a start. How about just stick around here long enough to even make 100 plays? The majority of us suck and that's why we're here to learn, chat, etc - but there's a way to go about things that's just a little more cool than this.

[durito]

lol at the think tank

i remember about a year ago the fukin king of smart asses and self proclaimed king of the think tank-monkeyfokr could not even go 50% on a free shot with rebate wager , I think it was over a 100 games

a bunch of clowns over thinking a coin toss

jealous much?

[senseionline]

only at sbr can u found public burial every week here

[paco]

And today ur singing a different tune in a different thread? Gambling is not easy.

[mafioso]

Its all tout speak.

before the internet, the touts sold "inside info" on their infomercials. Then when peopel got smart to that scam, they sold handicapping and ability to figure out which team had an edge based on thousands of games worth of data.

Then when guys all got the same data touts had to change their approach again. Then it was back to inside info. Which as it turned out was pretty factual considering how many schools were cheating. At least in the NCAA stuff. But they still couldnt win consistently enough for people.

So then they took their math and started selling varience, using the odds and changes to predict what guys were betting what way and then they evolved that into the so called originators versus steam chasers versus stale numbers guys. And that spawned its own genre of touts and forum warriors.

The only way to make money consistently betting sports is to play both sides with an edge, which right now is nearly impossible. You can try and beat it betting one side but to do that you have to pretty much get the very best number every single bet you make, which is almost as impossible as picking the right side in the first place.

Baseball is the easiest sport to make money at (aside from maybe WNBA, but the limits in the WNBA are so ridiculous that it is laughable) but at least in bases you can roll a few bucks over a couple times and make something somewhere near respectable in the 9 months you have. But once football starts guys will piss it all back again because the NFL is basically the biggest sucker season ever thought of. Yet guys think it is somehow their answer to riches. Pretty much the only way to make money in the NFL is to bet maybe 10-15 games a season for massive amounts and hope you go 90%. Trying to grind it out with so few games is a joke, and the so called variances and edges are meaningless with that few games played. by the time you think you have it figured out the season is over.

But it is the big time sports betting sport so it isnt a secret it is also the one where the books clean up and they actually start getting enough post ups to pay back the guys they have been slow paying all summer.

This is truly one of the best posts/replies I have seen in maybe 12 years.
the roll over baseball thing is awesome, you have 9 months of games everyday to pick and choose a spot and double up after a win, I cant tell you how many times this season Iv hit 4 in a row and turned 400 into 2700 or more, but this as you forgot to mention takes severe descipline. If you lose a play You must get back to even before you can start
For example, best case senerio ofcourse is
You bet a baseball game or total, I prefer totals
say for example you win 400 today
Now you dont have to bet again today,tomorrow, next day, you pick and choose your spots where you feel extremely comfortable now you bet the 400 profit
If you win you go 800 or 750 or whatever you won including juice
Say you win Now you bet the 1500 or whatever it is on one last game, Again, you dont have to do this within a week or even a month, You hit, you start over, You lose anytime during you start over.

This can be done with baseball because of the sheer number of games played, Its asking to much to try it in the NFL or College Football, As with football you dont have the luxury of being patient.

Anyway loved your post everything was spot on.

[hawley]

Wow Shari really put him in his place

[pavyracer]

The only correct answer is to make +EV bets, but of course there is more than one way to skin the cat. I'm of the opinion that a tiny fraction (and I mean TINY) of those who had the approach of "picking winners" (regardless of method or system) have won long-term, while a huge portion (nearly all with a clue) of those who bet based on line movement, arbitrage, middling, bonuses, etc. won long-term.

Gamblers who are gifted naturally in picking winners will always be succesful. 30 years ago there were no spreadsheets, complex math formulas and all the other gimmicks people use today to track line movement and find slow line moving books. And people still made money sports gambling.

Here is my advice to novice gamblers who are just starting. Start by picking winners first and don't worry about line movements or +EV bets. When you can demonstrate on paper that you can hit 57-60% on a large sample of bets in various sports then start learning the details of math modeling and all the other time consuming crap. Picking winners should be the #1 priority. All the other crap you can learn later.

[KKoz9]

do tell how to achieve this "easy" goal

[MoneyLineDawg]

Don't over think the line.
If you break down a game, and you like the price, bet it.
Simple.
I repeat, don't over think the line, I've seen so many people talk them self out of a winning wager because they say " I like Boston, but the line is too low, something must be up..." and lay off, only to watch Boston win.

Agreed 100%......been doing really well in baseball the past few months and I don't even follow line movements or all that BS. I see a pitching matchup and or team I think WILL win that given game and the price is decent or better I bet it. No more second guessing and analyzing this factor or that streak. 8-1 the last 2 days using this "formula" and I have collected (and not had to pay out) from my local the last 4 times we settled up

[ScreaminPain]

Go post this thread in the thinktank and get educated

This response is sooooo true...

The Op is simply stating the easiest method to be a millionaire. First, get a million, place it on the winner! Now you have a million....can't be easier than that!

[pavyracer]

Agreed 100%......been doing really well in baseball the past few months and I don't even follow line movements or all that BS. I see a pitching matchup and or team I think WILL win that given game and the price is decent or better I bet it. No more second guessing and analyzing this factor or that streak. 8-1 the last 2 days using this "formula" and I have collected (and not had to pay out) from my local the last 4 times we settled up

That's what I'm taling about!