RICKY ROMERO --- BLUE JAYS +111 at THE GREEK

[nobs]

OH MY. This has to be the play of the week. The Jays should be -150 here, but The Greek has them at +111.

Ricky Romero is probably the most underrated pitcher this year. He doesnt get any credit, but he a 2.75 ERA this year. His record is only 7-7 because he doesnt get run support. This guy a WHIP of 1.18 this year, and is averaging 7 innings per start which is pretty good. Nearly 2 .5 K to walk ratio.

Wakefield is going for Boston. This dude is almost 50 years old. Dude was pitching in the majors when I was in Junior high. He has an ERA of almost 5, barely a 1 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. He has given up almost 1 hit per inning pitched this year. Dude doesnt even start a lot of games, he has been in 19 games and has 74 innings so thats less than 4 innings per appearance. So I doubt he goes longer than 5 tonight.

The Red Sox used 4 from the bullpen last night and The Jays didnt use any out of the bullpen last night. So if this game gets into the bullpens, the Jays have an advantage in that their bullpen is rested.

I just love the Jays here at +111 and looking at some alternate runlines too. I think the Jays win this game pretty huge.

[nobs]

Just took Jays - 1 1/2 +170

and Jays +111 parlayed with Jays under 10. Red Sox score 3 tops

[Fishhead]

+115 AT MB
+114 AT 5D

It pays to have outs and to shop.

[rfr3sh]

+114 at pinny

07/06 12:39 PM +110 -120 at 5d fisher

[jayc88]

+115 / -116 at matchy

[benjy]

I conditionally love this play; still have to check the line up cards.

[nobs]

+115 AT MB
+114 AT 5D

It pays to have outs and to shop.

True Fishhead, but I just dont think I trust too many books right now. So I am the Greek and Carib only right now. I know I am giving up some money but I dont want to be in 10 books and I will take the +111 and be happy that I only have to sweat the game not the payout. And I wouldnt play at 5 dimes if Tony had it at +214.

[nobs]

I conditionally love this play; still have to check the line up cards.

I love this play like crazy benjy. Romero is only 7-7 because he gets less run support then a Mariner, but he has been pitching lights out this year.

[boeing power]

you guys see romero's career stats against bawston, scary

[face]

i don't think ricky romero is so great, and like boeing power says, boston has hit him hard.

[Cookie Monster]

Just to put thing into perspective:

Yea, Romero is very good. Maybe a 110 or better ERA+ pitcher. However, he is facing the most powerful offensive in the majors (1 run scored less than NYY, but better peripherals).

Wake is old, but for a knuckleballer standards he is still fine. As the pitch does not need considerable strength, they old very well. And the high walk rate is pretty common for knucklers. They usually make for it with very low BABIP, although Wake has been somewhat unlucky on that regard.

Moneylines are usually smaller than expected when Wakefield pitches. Boston at home with an average pitcher vs Toronto (Romero) should be -135 or so, currently it is -120. The problem with Wakefield is the high variance: he could be bombed early, or could easily have a no-hit late into the game.

I agree, Toronto may be the smart play, but it is not as clear-cut as you make it.

[rm18]

Boston under 5 runs free money

[ScreaminPain]

Ricky Romero is probably the most underrated pitcher this year. He doesnt get any credit, but he a 2.75 ERA this year. His record is only 7-7 because he doesnt get run support. This guy a WHIP of 1.18 this year, and is averaging 7 innings per start which is pretty good. Nearly 2 .5 K to walk ratio.

The Red Sox used 4 from the bullpen last night and The Jays didnt use any out of the bullpen last night. So if this game gets into the bullpens, the Jays have an advantage in that their bullpen is rested.

I tend to agree with you NOBS. I use my own rating system which has Romero rated 37th out of 221 starting pitchers. Wakefield is rated 163rd. I know that might not conincide with other ratings, but it works for me. For instance, I see Sagarin has Romero at 15th. For various reasons, this game doesn't pass one of my filters, so I'm going to pass, but I agree with your assessment of Romero.

Good Luck on your action...

[rm18]

Romero way higher than 37 but in Fenway against a team that takes a lot of walks not the best mathchup for him

[og4667]

Wakefield has lost his last 3 starts vs the Jays but Ricky tends to get hit hard by the Red Sox.

[james4512]

ricky already pitched at fenway this year and didnt even make it to the 5th innings. But jays might get a bunch of calls because of last nights debocle

[nobs]

Boston under 5 runs free money

I love the under 5

[azimm11]

ricky roooooooooo

[nobs]

Price now -115/+105 at the greek.

i wouldnt be surprised to see The Jays close as a small favorite

[DemoralizdDreamr]

The jays had there weakest line up in a month playing yesterday.
No escobar, thames and hill.
Things are gonna be different today.

[nobs]

Steam coming in on the Jays. They are down to +100 now. They were +115 in places earlier this morning. Quite a move.

[nobs]

I think the Jays win 6-1

[jjgolf]

it's a trap to bet toronto

[thebestthereis]

always bet against the red sox at home when the line is -120 or less or even when they are underdogs they never win at fenway so your value is through the roof. romero has been dominant at fenway for years with a miniscule era. get after this one asap. good luck!

[CoachemUp]

Not sure if this been noticed, but I read that Adrian Gonzalez will be out of the line-up. That would have moved the line presumably.

[icemaster47]

I am liking the Jays tonight too, let's cash it

[lolguy999]

come on jays

[gummo]

Should come out a winner here.

[rfr3sh]

romero has an alltime era over 7.5 against these fukks its just one of those bad matchups

[Inspirited]

I wonder how well these "too good to be true" lines do. I just recall a string of losses.

[Lord and Master]

i love how people think a guy sporting a 2.75 ERA could possibly be underrated. if your first name is pedro in the years 99-2002 then yes, otherwise no

[thebestthereis]

Chalk up another win at Fenway for the Sox at near even money, they continue to give money away. People wanna bet them when they are -200 but when the line is -120 or less they think the other team has a better chance....unreal but great for those that know what is going on. The same exact scenario happened on father's day when everyone thought gallardo and the brewers were gonna beat Wakefield. People will never learn.

[nobs]

LOL, here come the non -pro know it all after the game. They always appear to pat themselves on the back claiming they were on the winning side after the game. They never appear when the play wins. LOL. Its just too funny.

Its a lot harder to post plays before the game then to wait until after the game to decide which side you were on, but then non pros wouldnt know anything about that.