Went 3/5 today, one of the wins being a +175 dog.
My picks for today are:
Svidler to win @ -270
Svidler to win again @ -289
Svidler/Jakovenko no draw @ +140
Svidler/Jakovenko no draw again @ +130
Carlsen/Alekseev no draw @ +140
Svidler to win is now -350 and Carlsen/Alekseev no draw is close to EV.
Svidler v Jakovenko
Jakovenko continues his awful performance. He was lucky to escape against Ivanchuk today, who didn't convert the win only because of time trouble. Svidler finally won a nice game (with black) against Onischuk. With white he's definitely going to try for a win against the weakest seed. Svidler is by far the better player, and should have excellent chances getting the full point. That is why I bet him hard, and also the no draw equally hard.
Carlsen/Alekseev
I bet the no draw here at +140 because Carlsen so far is 4.5/5. So statistically speaking, it's not a bad bet even though Carlsen has 2 draws previously w/ Alekseev. Alekseev had a good rest w/ his quick draw today, but it will be tough for him to hold off Carlsen who even went for the full point against Shirov in a dead drawn ending (that paid off when Shirov blundered). I can't imagine him settling for less against the weaker Alekseev. If the tournament ended today, Carlsen would be the world #2 rating-wise. And he's only getting better. I only avoided betting him to win because of the juice at -405. Technically I think betting him at -405 is still good value, but I'm staying away.
I may include a couple of small plays later on a couple of "cheap" dogs. Decided to follow the coach's advice and only take my top couple of picks and hit them hard rather than betting the whole board. That's been hard to do so far because of the unusual number of decisive games.
-mathdotcom
My picks for today are:
Svidler to win @ -270
Svidler to win again @ -289
Svidler/Jakovenko no draw @ +140
Svidler/Jakovenko no draw again @ +130
Carlsen/Alekseev no draw @ +140
Svidler to win is now -350 and Carlsen/Alekseev no draw is close to EV.
Svidler v Jakovenko
Jakovenko continues his awful performance. He was lucky to escape against Ivanchuk today, who didn't convert the win only because of time trouble. Svidler finally won a nice game (with black) against Onischuk. With white he's definitely going to try for a win against the weakest seed. Svidler is by far the better player, and should have excellent chances getting the full point. That is why I bet him hard, and also the no draw equally hard.
Carlsen/Alekseev
I bet the no draw here at +140 because Carlsen so far is 4.5/5. So statistically speaking, it's not a bad bet even though Carlsen has 2 draws previously w/ Alekseev. Alekseev had a good rest w/ his quick draw today, but it will be tough for him to hold off Carlsen who even went for the full point against Shirov in a dead drawn ending (that paid off when Shirov blundered). I can't imagine him settling for less against the weaker Alekseev. If the tournament ended today, Carlsen would be the world #2 rating-wise. And he's only getting better. I only avoided betting him to win because of the juice at -405. Technically I think betting him at -405 is still good value, but I'm staying away.
I may include a couple of small plays later on a couple of "cheap" dogs. Decided to follow the coach's advice and only take my top couple of picks and hit them hard rather than betting the whole board. That's been hard to do so far because of the unusual number of decisive games.
-mathdotcom