I like this site for election probability analysis. It's a blog done at least in part by Nate Silver, of PECOTA fame. Love or hate PECOTA, I think you have to respect Silver's creativity and innovation in statistical analysis.
What this site attempts to do is incorporate various polls to estimate win probabilities in each state, and then use monte carlo methods to get national win probabilities. I didn't slog through all the details, but it appears to be pretty well done.
Obviously, the election's not for a while, and there's a lot more information to consider than just poll numbers. Still, they seem to be pretty diligent in updating their numbers, and it will be interesting to see if the site can accurately foreshadow price changes in the political futures markets. Definitely a site I'll be checking often.
Right now at matchbook, prices are McCain +200 / Obama -190. Silver has the win chances favoring Obama, but only 53/47. I think it's reasonable to assume that the closer we get to the election, the more predictive power the polls have, so the numbers should converge, implying either Obama's price will come down, or his poll numbers will go up.
Thoughts?