An even chalkier play (AND a surprise) for Thursday morning
Rafa Nadal -2000
vs Kei Nishikori to win 1.25 unit
We all know who Rafa is, lets get to Nishikori. He's an 18yo Japanese star, dubbed the "Japanese Roger (Federer)" by those in his native country, and by all accounts he's an extremely talented, promising young player. His most notable accomplishment this far has been upsetting American James Blake in the Delray Beach tournament finals.
He is ranked world #113. He's had great training, I think he has a good heart, Rafa is his favorite player and all that, but as of this moment he doesn't have all the tools necessary to defeat his idol. Beyond that, if you're thinking "Rafa isn't on clay where he's superhuman", Nishikori up until this tournament had played only 4 times on grasscourt.
Andy Roddick laid the boot on Nishikori 6-2, 6-4 a little while back. This may start out 2-2 but relax, Nadal is too much for the young Japanese to handle right now.
Nadal 6-4, 6-1
Mardy Fish +600
vs Andy Roddick to win 1.5 unit
The #'s will suggest to back Andy, particularly that overwhelming 8-1 H2H advantage over Fish which figures to be in his head psychologically. Especially considering the lone match Fish did win was a couple of years ago.
Still, I think there's value here in that Fish is a turbulent type of player, good enough to force this beyond 2 sets, probably not good enough to win it in 2 unless Roddick helps him along the way, but I really see this going into a third. From there, Fish has to play well, but I don't think you ever want to lay an eye popping # believing you're going to deal with a third set (in BO3 structure).
Only .25u is risked here so don't go 7-30 on me, but these odds warrant the play. I honestly do see this one going three sets and Fish having an opportunity to pull the upset.
Fish 5-7, 6-2, 7-6
vs Kei Nishikori to win 1.25 unit
We all know who Rafa is, lets get to Nishikori. He's an 18yo Japanese star, dubbed the "Japanese Roger (Federer)" by those in his native country, and by all accounts he's an extremely talented, promising young player. His most notable accomplishment this far has been upsetting American James Blake in the Delray Beach tournament finals.
He is ranked world #113. He's had great training, I think he has a good heart, Rafa is his favorite player and all that, but as of this moment he doesn't have all the tools necessary to defeat his idol. Beyond that, if you're thinking "Rafa isn't on clay where he's superhuman", Nishikori up until this tournament had played only 4 times on grasscourt.
Andy Roddick laid the boot on Nishikori 6-2, 6-4 a little while back. This may start out 2-2 but relax, Nadal is too much for the young Japanese to handle right now.
Nadal 6-4, 6-1
Mardy Fish +600
vs Andy Roddick to win 1.5 unit
The #'s will suggest to back Andy, particularly that overwhelming 8-1 H2H advantage over Fish which figures to be in his head psychologically. Especially considering the lone match Fish did win was a couple of years ago.
Still, I think there's value here in that Fish is a turbulent type of player, good enough to force this beyond 2 sets, probably not good enough to win it in 2 unless Roddick helps him along the way, but I really see this going into a third. From there, Fish has to play well, but I don't think you ever want to lay an eye popping # believing you're going to deal with a third set (in BO3 structure).
Only .25u is risked here so don't go 7-30 on me, but these odds warrant the play. I honestly do see this one going three sets and Fish having an opportunity to pull the upset.
Fish 5-7, 6-2, 7-6
