SUMMER SURPRISE - Attack on Iran - John, Hillary Rise

[ritehook]

A few months ago I rated a US attack (or one by Israel, with US support) at about 50% probable, "before Bush leaves office."

I'll make it now at about 65%, and before the summer is over.

I wouldn't bet on it tho. For one, last time I so speculated a poster righteously informed me that betting on a war was immoral as hell.

Agree.

And second, no book is booking this bet, and they should not.

And third, there are counter-indications.

Like, when an Israeli cabinet member within the past few weeks called for an attack soon on Iran, his boss, PM Olmert, distanced himself from the remark (but didn't denounce it).

Several leading Dems have denied that Bush has recently asked for much increased funding for anti-Iran groups (as reported by Andrew Cockburn in the Washington magzaine Counterpunch)

Moderate voices close to Bush like Condi Rice and Gates would quelch it. Well, if Bush asked Condi to dance naked down Pennsylvania Ave while belting out choruses from The Stars and Stripes Forever, Washingtonians would be treated to one of their most amusing sights in years.

And it looks like Gates was brought on board to give cover to the Bushites.

European allies would not like it - tho they did agree with the US that Iran deserved much tougher sanctions since the flap with the UN's AIC.

A war and the subsequent closing of the straits would make $4 a gallon seem a terrific bargain.

Gee, I've almost convinced myself that the attack will not occur!

Got to go out for a while but will later list some of my reasaons to believe it will, likely late July, early August.

[Willie Bee]

ritehook, if in your travels you see any book offering odds on who Dumbya gives a presidential pardon to before leaving office, let me know. I've yet to see that in the past, but would love to have a little fun with the subject if some book does offer it.

[ritehook]

ritehook, if in your travels you see any book offering odds on who Dumbya gives a presidential pardon to before leaving office, let me know. I've yet to see that in the past, but would love to have a little fun with the subject if some book does offer it.

You pitched me a softball here, Willie.

In Clinton's last few weeks in office the Lob and their whores swarmed Billy Bob's office begging, pleading, cajoling, maybe even offering up more Monicas, to get a full pardon for one Jonathan Pollard.

Who is Jonathan Pollard? Anyone can google the name, but I'll tell you that he is considered by both active and retired folks in the US intelligence establishment as the most horrific spy in the history of this country.

While working in a sensitive intelligence post for the Navy, and privy to all kinds of Top Secret info, he for years stole that informatin and passed it on to the Israeli govt.

It involved not only US covert agents in Europe and Russia but also top secret US defense secrets, re weaponry etc.

Israel not only used this information to its own advantage, but sold it worldwide to the highest bidder. Thus, some of the secrets of our latest military hardware ended up in China.

Some of America's secret and sleeping agents in Europe and the Soviet Union were compromised, many then losing their lives.

The US intelligence community considers Mr Pollard to be the most damaging spy in American history.

He is serving a life sentence. His apoligists say (see the many FREE JONATHAN POLLARD websites) he was acting on behalf of a friendly US ally and so should not have been so severely punished.

Meanwhile, he is considered a hero by many in Isreal, and has been made a Colonel in the Mossad, with back pay piling up.

What could deter Bush from pardoning him, tho, is that Israel may not want the heat that such publicity would generate. There is much more awareness now of the power of the Lob, and of the strange relationship the US has with this MidEast state, than there was a scant 8 years ago.

To block the heat, the Israeli govt may sacrifice poor Jon to the greater good. I'd make it 50-50 that a pardon comes thru, in Bush's last day or two in office.

[jjgold]

We cannot afford another War, it would put us in a depression for good.

[pavyracer]

ritehook, if in your travels you see any book offering odds on who Dumbya gives a presidential pardon to before leaving office, let me know. I've yet to see that in the past, but would love to have a little fun with the subject if some book does offer it.

George W will pardon curious. Mark my words.

[Willie Bee]

You pitched me a softball here, Willie.

Good one bringing up Pollard. Was thinking that Scooter Libby probably would open at -1200 or higher.

[ritehook]

Why An Attack On Iran Is More Likely Than Not

Reason Numero Uno is that Bush's main handlers, operating now, as before, through the grey eminence Cheney, want it.

Like, desperately want it.

I really don't argue anymore with the purblind who don't recognize the power of the Lob. Or that a de facto coup of neocons took place after 911. (Neocons have the same priorities as the Lob, tho not so openly stated.)

They've been pushing for it for a few years now. All part of the general scheme for "regime change" in the MidEast. A worthy goal in the eyes of these worthies, one worth the final sacrifice of every US soldier and the total destruction of the once mighty US economy.

They have George the Disgraceful convinced he is Chruchill. They seem to also have him convinced that if he leaves office with Iran on the verge of being a nuclear power he will be rudely knocked off his churchillian perch.

These folks may appear as somber academics but they are in truth raging, foaming-at-the-mouth fanatics. They have an objective, just like they did 11 years ago when they decided to get rid of Saddam, and went in search of a vessel into which to pour their blind hate.

They found one. He's still here . . .

2- A few months ago they got rid of Admiral Fallon, chief of CENTCOM, head of all US forces in the Gulf. Fallon was an outspoken opponent of any military action against Iran.

A more pliable military man took his place, and the top yes-man, Petraeus, will ascend to the post in August.

3- According to Washington-based journalist Andrew Cockburn, Bush about 2,3 months ago made a "finding" that significantly increased US aid should be made available to anti-Iranian groups and factions in the region. A preparation for regime-change.

These would include Kurdish groups operating in the Iranian mountains, and Sunni groups allied to al-Queda who hate the Iranians.

Also, significantly increased aid to a group opering in Iraq, about 12 miles from the Iranian border. This group is called Mujahideen-e-Khalq, or MEK.

MEK is a weird blend of Marxism and Islam. It is commanded by an Iranian woman, who calls herself "president of Iran." Most of the commaders of the military wing of MEK are also women.

MEK, however, was labelled a "terrorist" group by the US Dept of State about a dozen years ago. This does not prevent it from operating inside a country under US control, nor apparently, if Cockburn is correct,in getting US financial aid.

4- Neocons have a good lock on McCain, who seems now to be just a more intelligent GW Bush. Obama has seemingly held out the hand of surrender to the Lob, but they and the neos likely do not trust him that much.

They would rather have a safe affair between John and Hil.

I think there is a good chance that Hil continued her expensive money-burning campaign agasint Obama so as to set herself up as a great alterntive, should history and the unfolding of events slip Barak a mickey finn.

Remember, Obama is not yet the Dem candidate in fact. The nominating convention does not come down until late August.

If Bush lies us into a war with Iran, the denizens of Moronia will rallly to support. Just like populations everywhere and at all times rally to the govt's support in the early stages of any war.

Some concocted story will be broadcast, casting the mullahs or Pres Adm---------- as the Acme of Evil. And "supported" by all sorts of suspect "evidence" showing how their weaponry in the hand of the militia (most in fact bought on the open market,and made largely in Russia and India) comes from Iran.

Same old same old. But the Moronocracy will gear itself up into high dudgeon.

As the neocons well know.

And elect a real war hero, McCain,as the guy to prosecute this crusade against Pure Evil.

And Hill can tell the Dem convention that a pussy-footer peacenik like Obama can't win, and since she has always wished to obliterate Iran, then nominate her.

For all this to occur the attack should take place sometime in late July through the second week of August.

Perfect timing.

[Deuce]

Will not happen. Just can't. Resources too far depleted.

[ritehook]

I hope it doesn't happen. I don't, as noted, see it as 100%.

If the sacrifice of those poor 4000+ soldiers, and the hundred of thousands of innocent Iraqis dead, mutilated or displaced by this disgraceful neocon adventure did anything, it absolutely heightened awareness of more citizens of the Moronocracy that something is rotten in the state of America.

That a defact coup has taken place. For if the neos had full sway, they would have already gotten little boy George to do it.

But they still want it. Just take a quick read of their many rags next time in Barnes & Noble, like to pick up your preseason magazines.

Weekly Standard, edited by Billy Kristol, son of the fanatic for Israel founder of neoconism (and a former Marxist Trotskyite).
They were even praising Hillary during the Demo primiries, as she was clearly a lot more hawkiish that Obama.

New Republic, acctually a "neo-liberal" rag, but witht he same foreign policy objectives as the Standard.

National Reveiw, of late trying to get a little distance between themselves and the pure haters, but not really having much success.

Lots of others.

[ritehook]

I would include an air attack on Iran by Israel as the same as an American attack, and so it would be viewed in the region.

The US would support it, logistically and otherwise.

And a direct US attack on Iran need not be a repeat scenario of the Iraq disaster. With days long carpet bombing - Shock and Awe - followed by a massive troop invasion.

The US doesn't have the "necessities" for that kind of thing right now.

Likely an attack on the presumed underground nuke facilities, with the "bunker buster" ordinance. And an attempt to co-ordinate a ground incurssion or uprising of certain internal elements to overthrow the mullahs - this is where the Kurds and wild groups like MEK come in.

The US may also opt to declare their belief that Iran is developing nukes, and blockade the country.

A blockade is the equivalent of a declaration of war. If Iran responds militarily, as it has the interntional right to do, that will provide fodder for the Moronocracy Prop Machine.

[ritehook]

Ah well, in a short time the '08 NBA season will be history, and this board will go into a long snooze until August,and the start of preseason foots.

Me too. I will post around July 4 a very interessting piece by an established US journalist (Pulitzer winner!) that appeared online one year ago, and another indication of the growing awareness of the power of extra-American forces operating in the land in the Halls of Power.

But otherwise, time for a break.

[ritehook]

We cannot afford another War, it would put us in a depression for good.

Not a long war, jj, of course you're right, the death of the dollar due to the Iraq disaster has ruined the economy,from the fairly healthy animal it was during the Clinton years

A short bombing campaign, and then to push Iran into chaos by sponsoring uprisings by various dissident groups. That would be the most likely scenario if it does in fact come down . . .

[ritehook]

Good one bringing up Pollard. Was thinking that Scooter Libby probably would open at -1200 or higher.

Riiiiight!

I forgot the Scooter.

Slam dunk.

Pollard is a longer shot. Doubt any book will offer odds on either tho.

[ritehook]

George W will pardon curious. Mark my words.

As I said in another thread (curious's perpetual one here), I think it possible that he has been Pardoned by God.

But if so would not make book that his ghost will not show up up at the Bash and just ghost all you lying motherphuckers who couldn't show respect for a man wounded in combat while serving his country, phuck you all, scumbags.

And he won't then be confined to a wheelchair. So if you hear strange noises in you room at some witching hour, better crawl deeper under the covers.

[ritehook]

Will not happen. Just can't. Resources too far depleted.

One of the reasons it can't be 100%.

But a short war, bombing campaign only, targeted assassinations, and massive support for internal and external enemies of the Iran govt . . . don't rule it out completely.

[pavyracer]

Odds for Iran war in 2008:

No war -10000
War +11000

[ritehook]

Odds for Iran war in 2008:

No war -10000
War +11000

Well, you have to define "war." If like Iraq, no. But a quick bombing campaign and material and intelliegence support for dissident groups . .. .?

Or a bombing raid by Israel, as they did in Iraq around '81,and in Syria more recenty? I equate that with an American attack, as the US will know of it and be providing intelligence.

And so it will be viewed in the region.

[pavyracer]

Well, you have to define "war." If like Iraq, no. But a quick bombing campaign and material and intelliegence support for dissident groups . .. .?

Or a bombing raid by Israel, as they did in Iraq around '81,and in Syria more recenty? I equate that with an American attack, as the US will know of it and be providing intelligence.

And so it will be viewed in the region.

With oil going towards $200 a barrel, it will take a much bigger arguement than Iraq war to convince American people about going to war with Iran.

[TeamPlayer]

With oil going towards $200 a barrel, it will take a much bigger arguement than Iraq war to convince American people about going to war with Iran.

pavracer,

1.) Bush can bomb iran and make war with them WITHOUT any approval from Congress or the American people!

2.) In the last iraq war bill that was passed, congress wanted to put in a provision that told Bush that he must get approval from Congress before launching another war. It was removed. You know why??? The New York Times reported that when Nancy Pelosi was asked why did you remove it, she said "because the Israel asked us to."

3.) Oil prices are rising already because Iraqi oil supply is not available because of our invasion and because the Saudis are furious at us for making them less safe by creating an unstable situation in Iraq that threatens their own safety!

[ritehook]

pavracer,

1.) Bush can bomb iran and make war with them WITHOUT any approval from Congress or the American people!

2.) In the last iraq war bill that was passed, congress wanted to put in a provision that told Bush that he must get approval from Congress before launching another war. It was removed. You know why??? The New York Times reported that when Nancy Pelosi was asked why did you remove it, she said "because the Israel asked us to."

3.) Oil prices are rising already because Iraqi oil supply is not available because of our invasion and because the Saudis are furious at us for making them less safe by creating an unstable situation in Iraq that threatens their own safety!

Unfortunately, what you say is factual. Esp #1 & #2.

Bush now has carte blanche to attack Iran without any Congressional debate or approval. In effect, Pelosi and her Democrat co-leaders in Congess betrayed the folks that gave them their landslide congressional victories.

They were sent to Wash DC to stop the war. They could do it by the simple expdient of cuttting funds for it. They won't. And they've acquiesced in adavance to the next war.

On # 3, there are different reasons for the jumps in oil, but the weak dollar coupled with runaway speculation is perhaps the major one. Speculating on the continuing rise of oil has artifically pushed the price higher, with zero to do with supply and demand, either current or projected.

It's fueled by the weak dollar, a dollar badly weakened by a long, draiing counter-productive war. A finance minister of Saudi Arabia just said that the specuations was crazy, that oil should be no more than around $80 a barrel.

We've seen the same kind of wild speculation in the last 10-12 years. The dotcom madness, when any stock that has a techhy-sounded name was lusted after. And the recent real estate bubble - we are now living in the dampness created when it burst.

[flyingillini]

Odds for Iran war in 2008:

No war -10000
War +11000

I will put 500 on +11000 that is a good bet

[ritehook]

I will put 500 on +11000 that is a good bet

Me too. But no book or exchange that I know of taking bets on this, and if they did the numbers would not be this exagerrated