Parlaying Large ML Favorites

[dkp]

Where this discussion gets funny is on the assumption that all bets with the same ML odds represent the same chance of winning. You still have to handicap the individual game, don't you?

[Glitch]

cincinnati moneyline, jets moneyline hahaha

[THE PROFIT]

All of these threads talk about +EV, getting the best odds, maximizing profits & minimizing risks, getting odds at a better value, blah blah blah. I don't care if you get a +12 dog or a -150 ML fav at the greatest odds in the world to maximixe your profit, if they don't hit you're fuked!!! Kansas-6+125 tonight vs A&M has value jizzed all over it, but it didn't hit! It didn't hit at +125, +110, +100, -105, -110, -5687256597, so I like to focus more on picking winners at whatever they're charging for them than losing the least amount on losers. Not trying to be a smartass but I think picking winners is the most profitable way to gamble. All I'm saying is on this forum it seems there's alot more effort put into bankroll management systems, kelly, & +EV than fundamental handicapping. I for one would like to see more of that.

[20Four7]

Profit you are so wrong there. Maybe there was value in Kansas maybe not. You need to find bets that have value. If X team has a 45% chance of winning and Y has a 55% chance of winning and you can get Y at +100 that's a good bet..... If you get Y at -180 it's not a good bet even tho they have the greater expectation to win. Now getting X at +160 is a great bet given there chances of winning. Now in game play becomes different because everyone is looking at the NOW not the end.

[pico]

big mistake for john to fire ganch.

[andywend]

so I like to focus more on picking winners at whatever they're charging for them than losing the least amount on losers. Not trying to be a smartass but I think picking winners is the most profitable way to gamble.

You will NEVER pick enough winners to overcome paying "whatever they're charging for them". YOU'RE JUST NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

There's a good reason why every successful gambler spends as much time shopping for the best lines as they do researching the game in the first place.

There are way too many variables when it comes to sporting events and if you throw value out the window and just bet what you think are winners at whatever price you find them, monetary losses are almost all but assured.

[LT Profits]

All of these threads talk about +EV, getting the best odds, maximizing profits & minimizing risks, getting odds at a better value, blah blah blah. I don't care if you get a +12 dog or a -150 ML fav at the greatest odds in the world to maximixe your profit, if they don't hit you're fuked!!! Kansas-6+125 tonight vs A&M has value jizzed all over it, but it didn't hit! It didn't hit at +125, +110, +100, -105, -110, -5687256597, so I like to focus more on picking winners at whatever they're charging for them than losing the least amount on losers. Not trying to be a smartass but I think picking winners is the most profitable way to gamble. All I'm saying is on this forum it seems there's alot more effort put into bankroll management systems, kelly, & +EV than fundamental handicapping. I for one would like to see more of that.

Short-term thinking at its finest.

A play has value if it would show a profit if you made the same bet over and over. If you set fair odds on a play at +115 and you are getting +125, the play has value REGARDLESS IF YOU LOSE ONE INDIVIDUAL PLAY OR NOT! Remember, it;s a marathon, not a sprint.

[LT Profits]

A perfect example is I went against Venus Williams today with Sabine Lisicki +375, because I give Venus a 23% chance of losing this match. Now are the odds against me TODAY, of course. But if I make this same play 100 times, I expect to go 23-77, +9.25 units, so I could live with a loss.

[blix177]

All of these threads talk about +EV, getting the best odds, maximizing profits & minimizing risks, getting odds at a better value, blah blah blah. I don't care if you get a +12 dog or a -150 ML fav at the greatest odds in the world to maximixe your profit, if they don't hit you're fuked!!! Kansas-6+125 tonight vs A&M has value jizzed all over it, but it didn't hit! It didn't hit at +125, +110, +100, -105, -110, -5687256597, so I like to focus more on picking winners at whatever they're charging for them than losing the least amount on losers. Not trying to be a smartass but I think picking winners is the most profitable way to gamble. All I'm saying is on this forum it seems there's alot more effort put into bankroll management systems, kelly, & +EV than fundamental handicapping. I for one would like to see more of that.

+EV is great, if ever consider selling a line.

[TigerPawsSC]

A perfect example is I went against Venus Williams today with Sabine Lisicki +375, because I give Venus a 23% chance of losing this match. Now are the odds against me TODAY, of course. But if I make this same play 100 times, I expect to go 23-77, +9.25 units, so I could live with a loss.

This would be excellent, if there was any possible way to handicap a tennis match that precisely.

[donjuan]

This would be excellent, if there was any possible way to handicap a tennis match that precisely.

If only...

[Flying Dutchman]

big mistake for john to fire ganch.

Ganch was fired?

I thought he was one of the "owners."

Anyone know where he went?

Or did he "do" John's wife/GF/boyfiend/dog, etc and there is no recovering from said act?

[WileOut]

Unless the bookmakers are hanging biased markets (and they are), the vig won't be any different whether you're betting fave parlays or dog parlays.

If they're biased in favor of the ML faves (as is generally true in NFL, NBA, and Euro soccer), then the dog parlays will be higher vig.

If they're biased in favor of the ML dogs (as is generally true in MLB), then the fave parlays will be higher vig.

I'm just not sure what Ganch meant by "biased toward".

So books are generally biased in favor of ML favs for NFL and NBA, and biased in favor of ML dogs for baseball.....according to Ganch. Does this mean they generally give a better price for NFL/NBA ML favs than dogs, and give a better price for ML MLB dogs than favs?

Or is it the opposite, generally a worse price on NFL/NBA ML favs, and a worse price on MLB ML dogs?

[kisado]

Parlay with 'Hit by the Mob +900'

correlation imo

Excellent.

[MrX]

I'm just not sure what Ganch meant by "biased toward".

So books are generally biased in favor of ML favs for NFL and NBA, and biased in favor of ML dogs for baseball.....according to Ganch. Does this mean they generally give a better price for NFL/NBA ML favs than dogs, and give a better price for ML MLB dogs than favs?

Yes.

[maheldman]

if you are only betting $50, you shouldn't be betting at all. just like in poker, if you are playing the penny stakes, most likely, your decision-making is compromised. my 2c