What % of home runs are solo?

[rm18]

7/5/2011 6:00 PM Jim Thome's 600th home run will be If player doesn`t hit his 600th home run in the 2011 season wager has no action. Max wager is $300. MLB.com for results.
4401 Solo Home Run +175
4402 1 Man One +200
4403 2 Men On +250
4405 Grand Slam 3 Men On +550

+175 huge edge obviously but you tie money up and Thome might not even get to 600

[Whippit]

look like terrible odds

solo home run should be at least +250

[rm18]

You really think less than 40% of homers are solo? Look at todays boxes

[InTheDrink]

326 of his 593 homers are solo

9 grand slams and 258 with one or two on

grand slam should be over +1000

he has one solo this year and three with one on

[harlee71]

Just the ones where no one is on base....

[yisman]

+175 is good odds for solo homer.

Other lines are unbettable, of course.

[rm18]

16 of 21 homers today were solo, I know that is not the percentage but I think is around half maybe not sure

[yisman]

Last year, more than half were solo.

42.58% of 2010 home runs were multi-run shots.

[Whippit]

69% chance that someone gets on base each half inning

>>50% chance there's traffic when the dinger's ding gets dung

not to mention a guy tossing meatballs is more prone to allow pre-ding baserunners

100% chance this prop is designed to assrape

[yisman]

69% chance that someone gets on base each half inning

>>50% chance there's traffic when the dinger's ding gets dung

This is not true.

BTW, if someone hits a solo home run, that counts as getting on base.

[rm18]

Thome's % would be lower than league average though because guys like Weeks and Granderson at the top of the lineup will be at 70% + but maybe 52-53% chance that it is solo then

[rm18]

it is a bad line the grand slam is under 2% and they have it only +550

[Whippit]

Thome's % would be lower than league average though because guys like Weeks and Granderson at the top of the lineup will be at 70% + but maybe 52-53% chance that it is solo then

exactly, #4 hitters have lots of traffic

that's why they're called CLEANUP

[rm18]

exactly, #4 hitters have lots of traffic

that's why they're called CLEANUP

this is true but pitchers are also more careful when guys on, I am sure his walk % is higher and homer % lower with guys on and vice versa

[InTheDrink]

the one thing you will have to take into account is that he pinch hits from time to time now

most pinch hitting situations are when runners are on base

also i posted his career stats....in a normal situation he's not less likely to hit a solo homer than the rest of his career because he's always played in pretty good lineups where guys would get on base a lot

[yisman]

I'd wait and see.

Twins going interleague now, which means they may not bring him back for another week or two.

Take a look at end of June/beginning of July and see if line is still up.

[Whippit]

yisman your trophies are piling up

pretty soon they will obscure your poasts

[dynamite140]

grand slam maybe

[dynamite140]

or 3 hr maybe

[neverstoppers23]

Why would you even think about betting on this prop, there are way too many unknown variables for my taste.

[konck]

He will also get some pinch hitting roles on days he doesnt start....In these cases he
comes up with men on base

[yisman]

4 homers away now.

[gryfyn1]

you can see on the batting splits of Baseball-Reference.com. The answer is:

for his career he has 55% with no one on

so for this year:
AL: 60.2% solo homers
MLB: 57.1% Solo

2010
AL: 59.3%
MLB: 57.4%

2009
AL: 59.1%
MLB: 58.5%

[rm18]

line is at heritage now and fixed told this was hot


Jim Thome 600th Home Run
Sat 7/30 5:05PM (PST)
3701 Solo Home Run -135
3702 1 Man On +255
3703 2 Men On +505
3704 Grand Slam (3 men on) +1000
* Note: Must Hit his 600th Home Run in 2011 Season, if not, wagers are No Action. $500 Max Wager.

[yisman]

rm you never said what the original book was. Otherwise I would've bet it.

[rm18]

it was at greek sorry, and I saw bookamker put it up for one day also then it went down but was at greek for a long time

[InTheDrink]

7/5/2011 6:00 PM Jim Thome's 600th home run will be If player doesn`t hit his 600th home run in the 2011 season wager has no action. Max wager is $300. MLB.com for results. 4401 Solo Home Run +175 4402 1 Man One +200 4403 2 Men On +250 4405 Grand Slam 3 Men On +550 +175 huge edge obviously but you tie money up and Thome might not even get to 600

moot point

can't imagine anyone would have played it with 2 on

hope you stayed away

[Fischnasty]

thats a really good question.