Others in another thread have asked me how to cap a chess game. Here's how.
Principle#1: Regardless of the players, the most likely result of any (top level) game is always going to be a draw. Look at http://www.ukrchess.org.ua/aerosvit2008/result_e.htm. After first round, only 2/6 games were decisive.
Principle #2: White wins most games. The typical strategy at top level chess is to win your games with white and draw them with black. If you ever see a matchup where the better player is black (without being MUCH better), expect a draw. The guy playing white is usually happy to draw the better player, and the favorite is usually not willing to work too hard trying to win with black.
Principle #3: Look for players that have a lot of "premature" draws. There are two ways to have a game end in a draw. The players can just 'agree' to it, as one offers a draw to his opponent at any point during the game. Alternatively, a draw can be "forced" if most, or all, of the pieces are traded off. A king can't checkmate another king. If you see two guys who tend to agree to draws, you can expect a draw.
1] www.chesslive.de - at this site you can look up previous results between any two players w/ either color.
2] Learn about the players. Some play a type of style such that 90% of their games are draws. Some are wild and have more decisive games.
Match-ups:
a) Shirov - Jakovenko
Shirov has played this guy w/ white 5 times. 3 were draws and 2 were wins by Shirov. There is no way this guy is beating Shirov (a top 10 player). Line is currently -303 on Shirov. It's worth it.
Betting the draw is a bit risky here. A draw is definitely the most likely result, but Shirov won his first round game so is probably looking to keep it going against this weaker player.
b) van Wely - Eljanov
Van Wely is a solid player. He lost his first round game so is probably looking to make up for it with white. If I had to bet, I'd suspect a draw (as usual), but I think anything could happen here. I'm staying away.
c) Svidler - Carlsen
All of the previous games between these two have been draws. Carlsen won his first game, so he probably won't mind drawing with black against the #2-3 player in the tournament. Svidler might not try anything too risky with white against this hot player. He is young and has been constantly improving. I like the draw here at -159 currently. If it's not a draw (which I'd find highly surprising), either could be the winner.
d) Karjakin - Nisipeanu
All of their previous 4 games [with Karjakin as white] have been *agreed* draws. The last 2 even before move 20 (early in the game). I expect, strongly, another draw here. They are very evenly matched even if they were to play for a win. If you want to make one bet on chess, this is it.
Questions?
Mathdotcom's Chess Plays for tomorrow morning (games start at 8am eastern):
Carlsen/Svidler Draw
Shirov to beat Jakovenko
Karjakin/Nisipeanu Draw
Principle#1: Regardless of the players, the most likely result of any (top level) game is always going to be a draw. Look at http://www.ukrchess.org.ua/aerosvit2008/result_e.htm. After first round, only 2/6 games were decisive.
Principle #2: White wins most games. The typical strategy at top level chess is to win your games with white and draw them with black. If you ever see a matchup where the better player is black (without being MUCH better), expect a draw. The guy playing white is usually happy to draw the better player, and the favorite is usually not willing to work too hard trying to win with black.
Principle #3: Look for players that have a lot of "premature" draws. There are two ways to have a game end in a draw. The players can just 'agree' to it, as one offers a draw to his opponent at any point during the game. Alternatively, a draw can be "forced" if most, or all, of the pieces are traded off. A king can't checkmate another king. If you see two guys who tend to agree to draws, you can expect a draw.
1] www.chesslive.de - at this site you can look up previous results between any two players w/ either color.
2] Learn about the players. Some play a type of style such that 90% of their games are draws. Some are wild and have more decisive games.
Match-ups:
a) Shirov - Jakovenko
Shirov has played this guy w/ white 5 times. 3 were draws and 2 were wins by Shirov. There is no way this guy is beating Shirov (a top 10 player). Line is currently -303 on Shirov. It's worth it.
Betting the draw is a bit risky here. A draw is definitely the most likely result, but Shirov won his first round game so is probably looking to keep it going against this weaker player.
b) van Wely - Eljanov
Van Wely is a solid player. He lost his first round game so is probably looking to make up for it with white. If I had to bet, I'd suspect a draw (as usual), but I think anything could happen here. I'm staying away.
c) Svidler - Carlsen
All of the previous games between these two have been draws. Carlsen won his first game, so he probably won't mind drawing with black against the #2-3 player in the tournament. Svidler might not try anything too risky with white against this hot player. He is young and has been constantly improving. I like the draw here at -159 currently. If it's not a draw (which I'd find highly surprising), either could be the winner.
d) Karjakin - Nisipeanu
All of their previous 4 games [with Karjakin as white] have been *agreed* draws. The last 2 even before move 20 (early in the game). I expect, strongly, another draw here. They are very evenly matched even if they were to play for a win. If you want to make one bet on chess, this is it.
Questions?
Mathdotcom's Chess Plays for tomorrow morning (games start at 8am eastern):
Carlsen/Svidler Draw
Shirov to beat Jakovenko
Karjakin/Nisipeanu Draw
