Is this +EV?

[Cap dat 4ss]

I buy a $100 ticket from St. Judes. One winner gets a house valued at $490,000. They give away twelve other prizes all valued over $100 but I am unsure of the exact value. A total of 7,000 tickets will be sold so the chance of winning the house is 1/7000 (.01428571%), < 1/10th of 1%, but if I win the house I turn $1 into $4900. So, is this a +EV move to buy the ticket?

[rm18]

yes each ticket wroth over $70

[Cuse0323]

Shit is for charity, who cares if it's plus EV for fcks sake.

[rake922]

I hope you get your money back for some fun in the sun

[dtp]

It all depends on if you want the action or are looking to hedge.

[chemicalbrother]

when you do your taxes next year, claim the $100. don't worry so much about 'value'.

[Cap dat 4ss]

Shit is for charity, who cares if it's plus EV for fcks sake.

It is clearly going torwards a good cause, was just curious if it was +EV or not. I don't think it is, probably close to even value, possibly slightly -EV.

Will deduct the $100 on taxes next year, even if I win the house.

[Cap dat 4ss]

So here are the other prizes, + the $100 tax deduction.
Other prizes include:

• a 4' x 6' above-ground saferoom and installation, courtesy of Ground Zero Shelters
• Frontier City/White Water Bay Season Summer Package
• a $1,000 gift certificate to OnCue Express
• a $1,000 **** gift card, courtesy of Pinnacle Dental
• six-month weekday golf membership to Fairfax Golf Course
• a $1,000 shopping spree at Conn's
• gift certificates totaling $1,000 to Central State Beauty & Massage Academies
• private party package, courtesy of OKC's Finest Photo Booth
• Life Fitness C1 stationary bike, courtesy of Fitness Equipment World
• dinner for two, once per month for one year at Charleston's Restaurant
• fondue for two, once per month for one year at The Melting Pot
• Talo® Smart Touch Kitchen Faucet and accessories package, courtesy of Brizo®
• Avenger pool table, courtesy of Family Leisure

[fishmonger]

No it's not. In order for it to be +ev the house would have to be valued at 700,000. Your chances are 1/7000 but your payout is 1/4900. So basically you are paying $100 for a ticket that is worth $70.

[Extra Innings]

Shit is for charity, who cares if it's plus EV for fcks sake.

It is clearly going torwards a good cause, was just curious if it was +EV or not. I don't think it is, probably close to even value, possibly slightly -EV.

Will deduct the $100 on taxes next year, even if I win the house.

You'll have to dish out well over 200k in taxes if you win that house.

[Cap dat 4ss]

You'll have to dish out well over 200k in taxes if you win that house.

I would have to pay property taxes on this. Would I also have to claim it on my income tax?

[Cap dat 4ss]

yes each ticket wroth over $70

No it's not. In order for it to be +ev the house would have to be valued at 700,000. Your chances are 1/7000 but your payout is 1/4900. So basically you are paying $100 for a ticket that is worth $70.

Think I see it now.
total of about $500,000 in prizes. They will be collecting $700,000 in money from selling 7,000-$100 tickets. So, $500,000/$700,000= $.7142 X 100 = $71.42 is the true value of each ticket. $71.42 - $100 = -$28.57 for every $100 spent EV.

[Extra Innings]

I would have to pay property taxes on this. Would I also have to claim it on my income tax?

I see it as contest winnings....half the fukcs on the Price is Right never get to touch the stuff they win, they simple sell it, pay the taxes, and keep the balance.

[Extra Innings]

So you bill will be 171,500 @ 35%

[LVHerbie]

Shit is for charity, who cares if it's plus EV for fcks sake.

when you do your taxes next year, claim the $100. don't worry so much about 'value'.

Ironically when you looking at something with high payout relative to the cost of entry utility and taxes have a huge impact on the expected value...

[boeing power]

US government is crooked, no taxes on winnings in canada, not even on lottery

[shari91]

US government is crooked, no taxes on winnings in canada, not even on lottery

Same here in Australia. Not even taxes on gambling winnings unless you want to declare your profession as gambler on your tax return. I remember when I first learned about the Price is Right thing EI mentioned. I was still living in Canada and had a big debate with a friend who just couldn't believe the US would tax you if you won a couch, love seat and a set of knives. Bloody thieves.