(The good stuff is under "teaser tool")
This post reports the performance of the “Edgar line” over the last 3 weeks, from March 1-21.
(Yes, I recognize that it is a fairly small sample size. To be perfectly candid, I did not track it at this level of detail before I began posting the numbers here in late February.)
Once again, I do not myself – and don’t recommend – blindly following the estimated pointspread number as an indicator of what to play.
But if I would have done that over the last three weeks, I would have been all right.
======================================== ====
(1)
MARCH 1-21 – STRAIGHT BETS
(a)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 2.4 points or more:
44-38-3, with 2 "no plays" --– winning percentage of .537
(I am making the rather obvious–to-me assumption that the first Nash injury game and the first Iverson injury game are “no plays”)
(b)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 2.9 points or more:
38-31-3 --- winning percentage of .551
(c)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 3.2 points or more:
34-27-3 --– winning percentage of .557
======================================== ==
Now, here’s what’s interesting:
18 of the 38 losses in March so far have been by 4.5 points or less against the closing number.
So:
(2)
“EDGAR LINE” AS A TEASER TOOL
(a)
Using all games with a gap of 2.4 points or more between the closing line and the “Edgar line”:
Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?
yes-65, no-19, push-1
“winning” percentage:
.774
So a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.597
(b)
Using all games with a gap of 2.9 points or more between the clsoing line and the “Edgar line”:
Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?
yes-57, no-14, push-1
winning percentage:
.803
So a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.642
(c)
Using all games with a gap of 3.2 points or more between the closing line and the “Edgar line”:
Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?
yes-51, no-12, push-1
winning percentage: .810
so a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.653
======================
um . . . . holy cow!!!
=======================
I will put up a second post that has the game by game detail, for anyone who would like to see it.
Once again, I have tried to slice the data a few different ways to see if there is a particular KIND of play that has a standout level of success (big dog/little dog/favorite, home/ road, etc.)
But so far I have not unlocked anything beyond these “teaser tool” numbers – which are actually pretty exciting, to me at least.
This post reports the performance of the “Edgar line” over the last 3 weeks, from March 1-21.
(Yes, I recognize that it is a fairly small sample size. To be perfectly candid, I did not track it at this level of detail before I began posting the numbers here in late February.)
Once again, I do not myself – and don’t recommend – blindly following the estimated pointspread number as an indicator of what to play.
But if I would have done that over the last three weeks, I would have been all right.
======================================== ====
(1)
MARCH 1-21 – STRAIGHT BETS
(a)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 2.4 points or more:
44-38-3, with 2 "no plays" --– winning percentage of .537
(I am making the rather obvious–to-me assumption that the first Nash injury game and the first Iverson injury game are “no plays”)
(b)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 2.9 points or more:
38-31-3 --- winning percentage of .551
(c)
When the gap between the closing line and “Edgar line” is 3.2 points or more:
34-27-3 --– winning percentage of .557
======================================== ==
Now, here’s what’s interesting:
18 of the 38 losses in March so far have been by 4.5 points or less against the closing number.
So:
(2)
“EDGAR LINE” AS A TEASER TOOL
(a)
Using all games with a gap of 2.4 points or more between the closing line and the “Edgar line”:
Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?
yes-65, no-19, push-1
“winning” percentage:
.774
So a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.597
(b)
Using all games with a gap of 2.9 points or more between the clsoing line and the “Edgar line”:
Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?
yes-57, no-14, push-1
winning percentage:
.803
So a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.642
(c)
Using all games with a gap of 3.2 points or more between the closing line and the “Edgar line”:
Did the indicated play come within 4.5 points of the closing line?
yes-51, no-12, push-1
winning percentage: .810
so a teaser using any two of these indicated teams, randomly selected, has the following chance of winning:
.653
======================
um . . . . holy cow!!!
=======================
I will put up a second post that has the game by game detail, for anyone who would like to see it.
Once again, I have tried to slice the data a few different ways to see if there is a particular KIND of play that has a standout level of success (big dog/little dog/favorite, home/ road, etc.)
But so far I have not unlocked anything beyond these “teaser tool” numbers – which are actually pretty exciting, to me at least.
