How could anyone take a bet on Hillary to win the Dem nomination at this point, at Mbook ppl will take +4500 on Hillary to get the nomination, what are they betting on, odds Obama has a heart attack?
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Maybe Obama loads up on Hillary at those odds and drops out. easy money.Comment -
I'd assume it's because some bettors with preexisting Obama positions are taking in to account time-value-of money.
In other words, some bettors have profit and don't want to have to wait the nearly 3 months until the actual convention for it to be realized.Comment -
There are rumors of a video where Michele Obama is at that church, basically ripping the sh1t out of white people, says the word whitey. They were supposed to drop it right after Hillary dropped out.....effectively destroying Obama securing an easy win for McCain
Word is.....they may drop it before she bows out. If it's the bombshell all the analysts think, it may be worth Hillary's time to hang in for just a few more days.Comment -
Yeah, a last minute bombshell that will cost Obama, or back room deals with superdelegates to get Hill the nomination.Originally posted by JBC77Comment -
I guess if the video rumor is true......that would be one hell of a payout if you bet it.
Obama is assoicated with a lot of shady characters, only a matter of time before they come back to haunt him. He may win the demo primary....but he's done.
He insulted every white gun owner east and west of the Missippi and refered to his own grandmother as a "typical" white woman. The guy can't win a white state.Comment -
You can currently pick up Obama on Matchbook at -3400, which is about -3469.39 after commission.Originally posted by Ganchrow
If we assumed Obama were now 100% guaranteed to win the nomination (which of course he isn't), then then this would correspond to an edge of 2.882%.
Considering that the acceptance of the nomination is about 85 days away (that's assuming it takes place on the third day of the convention, which I believe to be historically accurate), then this corresponds to an annualized return of about (1+2.882%) 365.25 85 -1 ≈ 12.987%.
It would have to each bettor to determine for himself whether 12.987% annualized (slightly less after taking into account the risk involved) is a sufficient return on investment.Comment -
Well I don't understand that b/c the nomination is within a week of being decided, true the actual dem convention is a few months away but after he locks up 41 delegates that's it he wins, not sure what the price on Hillary not winning at that point will be but would have to become like selling a bond which interest rates nowadays are fukin nothinOriginally posted by GanchrowComment -
The rules of these bets typically specify that the wager isn't graded until the actual nominating event.Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
Ignoring the slight risk of Obama dropping out prior to the nomination (for whatever reason), betting Obama at -3400 would be exactly like a buying a Matchbook bond.Comment -
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton will concede Tuesday night that Barack Obama has the delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, campaign officials said, effectively ending her bid to be the nation's first female president.
The former first lady was not ready to formally suspend or end her race in a speech Tuesday night in New York City. But if Obama gets to the magic number of delegates, 2,118, she was prepared to acknowledge that milestone, according to aides who declined to be identified.
Obama effectively secured the magic number Tuesday, based on a tally of pledged delegates, superdelegates who have declared their preference, and another 15 superdelegates who have confirmed their intentions to The Associated Press.Comment -
Not sure how you claim it's not 100% chance she won't win the nomination Ganch but you are clearly not paying attention to the news. It's over, she has conceded she has offered to be his VP, I mean I'm not sure what you consider a true 100% lock, but this is it.Comment -
It's certainly very, very close to 100%, but obviously not quite. For example ... what if he were to die?Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
But that was hardly the point of my posts insofar as they were written under the prevailing assumption that his nomination is indeed guaranteed.Comment -
How quickly we forget.
Hillary was about a 30-1 dog to win the New Hampshire primary in Feb. the night before they voted - she pulled that one off.
It's not a question of whether she can pull a 30-1 upset, it's whether she can do it again!
As recently as yesterday afternoon, she was about a 12-1 dog to win the South Dakota primary. At the moment, Intrade and Betfair are showing her at around -200 to win.
And you want to lay around 35-1 against her?!?!Comment -
If I may add my two cents...Nothing is ever %100...There is always something that could happen. Say the tapes get released and it causes the democratic party too much enbarrasement...and all of the delegates move from Obama to Hillary. This is deffinityl a possibility folks.(thats why its called gambling)Originally posted by SBR_JohnComment -
Agreed, the risk involved at this point is that he is killed/dies or withdraws for some unknown reason after locking up the nomination. It is one of the strangest bets I have ever seen in that while I have to concede the odds have been steadily rising in the last week Mbook had it at -2500 against Hil last week and now Hil not to win is -4500, it is at this point the closest thing to an absolute buy a ticket cash a winner bet as I have ever seen, and I have to believe that this -4500 will be off the board in the next couple hours.Originally posted by GanchrowComment -
Sorry bro, but if you took a "longshot" bet on Clinton you are going to have to get a sniper rifle to cash it, the race is over the odds against her winning should be calculated like a bond. I put a dime (all I had in mbook at the moment was 1200) on her not to win as a joke it pays 27 bucks LOL, pretty good interest rate, I plan on selling it back later on in the week when it's officially announced and betting 3 bucks to win the 1000 back afterwards and buyin a pizza on my no Hillary 20. I suggest any1 wanting a free 20 bucks put a dime on Hillary right now and enjoy a free pizza on me in two or three days.Originally posted by Art VandeleighComment -
Race is over, but I won't put up Dollars to win pennies. Not worth it with that crazy bitch. Perhaps Bill and she have hired a hitman; they certainly have the money for it. I'm just saying...Originally posted by GanchrowComment -
Originally posted by HedgeHog
Matchbook put up a new line
Odds a hitman doesn't kill Obama -3600Comment -
I agree that clearly the only people betting on Hillary at this point must be Obama backers who simply want to get their winnings now - a small "early w/d" penalty as Ganch suggested, I can't seriously believe anyone is actually betting thinking she can winComment -
you got to be nuts to vote for that black piece of garbage
He is black trash
blacks cannot coach let alone run a CountryComment -
just bettin that he will be the democrat candidate, 1000 to win 27 b/c it would pretty much take him being killed at this point to avoid it, as far as him becoming president I have no wager on that nor will I be votingOriginally posted by jjgoldComment -
Ganch
How do old Obama bettors cash in, today, by betting on Hillary? If they scalp they still have to wait the 3 months.Comment -
Yes, you're right, the two Matchbook markets aren't actually fungible.Originally posted by mathdotcom
Obviously in the case of the Hillary YES bet it would largely be those with Hillary NO positions who'd be doing the betting (including those arbing between the two markets).Comment -
Good point, as I predicted all the "action" if you want to call it that is on, Obama and Hillary not to win, all -3600 and -4500 are empty and is now -9000 (1.1% interest for 3 month loan) and -5000 (2% interest for 3 month loan), so get your Matchbook bonds that will pay unless Obama is killed prior to end of AugustOriginally posted by GanchrowComment
