OK... Who's got the balls to take the Thunder -4.5 Game 4

[chase hardy]

I will be on thunder moneyline.

[riskyProps]

The only reason why the Mavs won last night is because the Thunder started to choke even more than the Mavs were. Yes, if you can blow a 23 point lead, you're choking. And guess what, they had Westbrooke in for the 4th Quarter too. Coincidence?

[blinky88]

OKC will win this game.....

[Texas_Actuarial]

As a Mavs fan, I think the Mavs escaped with a win there. Yeah defense accounts for some of it, but you can't bank on a team flirting with a playoff record of consecutive missed 3 point attempts. 1 for 17 is abysmal, but I think autocorrelation accounts more for this feat than anything. In the same sense that Jason Terry isn't the league's best 3 point shooter given that he went 9 for 10 back in game 4 against the Lakers, OKC isn't the worst in the league for going 1 for 17 in game 3.

I think OKC's propensity to continue shooting 3-point shots even through failure will make their score more volatile. If you are considering making a ML bet for OKC, I would recommend going ahead with the -4. With a team shooting an average of 17 3-point shots this series, they are banking their success on the high side of variance.

In so many words... a "live by the three, die by three" mentality adds value to the volatile team when betting spreads.

[WesJeffery]

Why is line OKC -4.5 in game 4? game 3 line was -2.5 and OKC lost and Vegas is giving them more points to cover?

[t-wizzle]

As a Mavs fan, I think the Mavs escaped with a win there. Yeah defense accounts for some of it, but you can't bank on a team flirting with a playoff record of consecutive missed 3 point attempts. 1 for 17 is abysmal, but I think autocorrelation accounts more for this feat than anything. In the same sense that Jason Terry isn't the league's best 3 point shooter given that he went 9 for 10 back in game 4 against the Lakers, OKC isn't the worst in the league for going 1 for 17 in game 3.

I think OKC's propensity to continue shooting 3-point shots even through failure will make their score more volatile. If you are considering making a ML bet for OKC, I would recommend going ahead with the -4. With a team shooting an average of 17 3-point shots this series, they are banking their success on the high side of variance.

In so many words... a "live by the three, die by three" mentality adds value to the volatile team when betting spreads.

Interesting. I don't know if the Mavs escaped with a win. They played a really clean game for the first 3 quarters and really tightened up on defense. The Thunder gave it a valiant effort but it was too little too late. The important thing to remember is that these two were very evenly matched in the first two games and i would honestly say that OKC outplayed Dallas in the first two despite splitting 1-1.

The line is 3.5 now, Thunder are still the play though.

[bachngocduong]

not -4.5 but ML for sure i will

[FindTheLock]

the mavericks have been spread covering machines for the most part. I wouldn't have the balls to pull the trigger betting against them the way they're playing. Dirk could break out at any moment and drop 40 ending the thunders season abruptly. If they don't cover this next one they will cover their home game easily. their bench is too deep and their defense is too involved. Kidd, marion, and Dirk know this might be their best looking run at getting a ring, and I don't think they are going to let a young team get in their way. When this series is over I think dallas is going to be getting some more rest.

[Foals]

really think that the mavs still win the series.

[Pivotpoint]

I'm seeing -4. I've seen some -3 1/2 's. Who thinks the line will drift lower?

[J Boom]

Mavs again

[bettilimbroke999]

Why is line OKC -4.5 in game 4? game 3 line was -2.5 and OKC lost and Vegas is giving them more points to cover?

Lines already down to 3 1/2 and will prolly be 3 or 2 1/2 by gametime

[blackbox]

I would have taken the Mavs +4 in a heartbeat. Just hope I can find it available. gl all.

[aznjeff07]

no play...i think thunder is the right play, but the edge in this game is too small to risk money imo

[lakerboy]

at 3.5 i like okc.

[suicidekings]

Lines already down to 3 1/2 and will prolly be 3 or 2 1/2 by gametime

The line is not going to migrate 2 whole points here... It will likely reverse and finish at -4.

[NBA_Brosuf]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm doing a small play in game 4. Just small enough for me taste the game a bit to get my addiction out of the way.

Dallas or OKC? hrmmm... I'm still doing my write up and right now, I just don't know. Spread might be my determining factor and other stuff but yeah....

[jacer333]

Why is line OKC -4.5 in game 4? game 3 line was -2.5 and OKC lost and Vegas is giving them more points to cover?

Books are leaning hard on the Thunder playing much harder in game 4. This has been the trend thus far in both conference series, the team losing the previous game comes out with much more will to win and even the series.

[Degenerate]

I will be on the OKC spread at -3.5.

[daimoshokage]

Refs ML for me

[sportsfanatic]

okla should probably win this one, but mavs have totally owned them in okla this season.

[t-wizzle]

The line is not going to migrate 2 whole points here... It will likely reverse and finish at -4.

I think it goes back to 4 as well.

[bettilimbroke999]

vegas is smart the public is going to pound Dallas like crazy but here's why im not.


-kD is going to drop a 40 spot

-Russel westbrook is going to land a triple double 18pts 10reb 14 ast 3 steals 1 block and a couple to's

FINAL SCORE OKC 111 DAL 85

Westbrook wouldnt have 14 assists if they put 3 guys on him, OKC gets buried again tonight, only reason they're not gettin swept is bc they shot 57% in Game 2, I mean hell when you bury every 3 pointer you shoot you're going to win

[aman86]

dallas is the play

[R6MC]

I plan on letting the fate of my hard earned dollars be decided by the efforts of the Oklahoma City Thunder basketball team.

[qukubau]

i'm on oklahoma city -3.5.

[betforbread]

Thunders will win but not over 4.5 points.

[t-wizzle]

Thunder -3.5 -110 (10x)

[NBA_Brosuf]

Thunder -3.5 -110 (10x)

You must have bought this early. The value on OKC has dropped about half a point. -4 now.

Although the public is on Dallas. Am I right?

[t-wizzle]

You must have bought this early. The value on OKC has dropped about half a point. -4 now.

Although the public is on Dallas. Am I right?

Haven't had a chance to check any numbers but I would think Dallas is getting more action

[NBA_Brosuf]

Haven't had a chance to check any numbers but I would think Dallas is getting more action

Well, in that case, fade the public.

LOL

[phillybadboy]

all the sbr sharp will be on thunder

[KiDBaZkiT]

OKC can't shoot that bad from beyond the arc like tonight and the refs will help being on OKC's side.

Look at the Ft disparity in some of these conference games, I mean I still think Miami would of won and prob covered last night but the refs refused to give the Bulls some deserving calls, simply cause the series would of ended with a bulls won las night. I am just gonna wait til half time to place my wager. You know if Dallas got a nice lead at the half that bitch is gettin cut into.

[KiDBaZkiT]

Also did anyone get a chance to see tonights officiating crew? Danny Crawford, who when officiating Mavs games I believe they are lie 3-17 or some ridiculous number like that. Also Tony Brothers, not only is he suspicious cause hes black and his last name is Brothers but he is sneaky, hes a good ref by Stern standards. Not like Javey and those goons last night, Im sure David gave them a talking to. Lets not forget Dallas has a Christian owner and a German superstar, in a Jews(Stern) league not exactly a recipe for big wins as the track record has shown.

[Wrigley]

Dallas Moneyline is the play