I've been betting for decades and whenever I start a new sport I give it 3-4 Years to avoid a knee jerk reaction. My first impressions on baseball was that it was pure randomness and that was why the books offered such competative odds. The main reason I continued studying it was the overwhelming posts on various forums stating that baseball was the best conduit to make money and so on went my quest for this holy grail of betting.
Fast forward 4 years and I have now come to the following conclusions. Yes it is completely random, as a quick average of any of the stats in this sport will tell you, there's not half a run (I'm being generous) in any of it. So this suggests its all down to prices over the long haul but it appears the books have this covered in the randomness will kill the favorite while the vig will kill the dog. Nobody is going to bet every game so stats are useless.
Betting totals does have some hope in that if the bettor bets not to lose as opposed to trying to win and using the best odds he has a chance. Trends are like all trends, good while they're winning and thrown in the bin on a bad run. I wasted 5 hours of my ever decreasing life looking up the often posted umpire bias, well it was a waste of life. In reality these people have no control on the game changing things like the batter hitting the ball, and thats the major part of who wins and at what score.
As a betting propostion Baseball is pathetic and a good look at what goes on highlights the complete unpredictability. 50 year old plus coaches dressed in playing gear, players in the dug out laughing while those on the field make a desperate mistake, coaches leaving in a pitching starter thats obviously at the end of his tether, putting in reliefs just because its the 8th innings, the list is endless and its not if you can pick out some smart coaches like NFL, they're all suited to play gum chewing jokers.
So there you go, good luck to the delusional idiots that think thay can beat this game (I leave out people who spend every waking hour watching the sport as like any sport, knowledge is king) your winning run is the purest sense of randomness.
Fast forward 4 years and I have now come to the following conclusions. Yes it is completely random, as a quick average of any of the stats in this sport will tell you, there's not half a run (I'm being generous) in any of it. So this suggests its all down to prices over the long haul but it appears the books have this covered in the randomness will kill the favorite while the vig will kill the dog. Nobody is going to bet every game so stats are useless.
Betting totals does have some hope in that if the bettor bets not to lose as opposed to trying to win and using the best odds he has a chance. Trends are like all trends, good while they're winning and thrown in the bin on a bad run. I wasted 5 hours of my ever decreasing life looking up the often posted umpire bias, well it was a waste of life. In reality these people have no control on the game changing things like the batter hitting the ball, and thats the major part of who wins and at what score.
As a betting propostion Baseball is pathetic and a good look at what goes on highlights the complete unpredictability. 50 year old plus coaches dressed in playing gear, players in the dug out laughing while those on the field make a desperate mistake, coaches leaving in a pitching starter thats obviously at the end of his tether, putting in reliefs just because its the 8th innings, the list is endless and its not if you can pick out some smart coaches like NFL, they're all suited to play gum chewing jokers.
So there you go, good luck to the delusional idiots that think thay can beat this game (I leave out people who spend every waking hour watching the sport as like any sport, knowledge is king) your winning run is the purest sense of randomness.
