Boston +5 is a terrible bet

[james4512]

Theres just no way boston loses this game close. Their late game execution is so good and miamis is just so bad. If the heat win it will be a blowout so chose your side wisely and your welcome

Boston +180/heat -5 are the only plays BOL

[Money]

yeah i think bostons a good play

[VegasInsider]

Huh? So Boston either wins or loses handedly?

I've watched every Celtics game this season and there is absolutely no reason to think the Celtics can't win a close game. I'm not really sure what you're basing your opinion on.

[d2bets]

Huh? So Boston either wins or loses handedly?

I've watched every Celtics game this season and there is absolutely no reason to think the Celtics can't win a close game. I'm not really sure what you're basing your opinion on.

That's exactly what he's saying. He's saying if it's close Boston will win, so bet the ML.

Don't necessarily agree. Might want to check how many games Boston lost by 5 or fewer.

[d2bets]

Theres just no way boston loses this game close. Their late game execution is so good and miamis is just so bad. If the heat win it will be a blowout so chose your side wisely and your welcome

Boston +180/heat -5 are the only plays BOL

13/26 Boston losses were by 5 or fewer, and another 2 (15/26) by 6 or fewer. I don't understand why Boston can't lose close. Not saying they will, but your assumption is overstated.

[james4512]

That's exactly what he's saying. He's saying if it's close Boston will win, so bet the ML.

Don't necessarily agree. Might want to check how many games Boston lost by 5 or fewer.

it doesnt matter how many games boston has lost by 5 or fewer its amount of games heat have won by 5 or fewer and theres not many.

Vegas - Im not saying boston cant win because they can im just saying they wont lose by less than 5

[VegasInsider]

That's exactly what he's saying. He's saying if it's close Boston will win, so bet the ML.

Don't necessarily agree. Might want to check how many games Boston lost by 5 or fewer.

That's not at all what he's saying. He is saying that Boston will either win the game or lose by more than 5. Which is exactly the same as saying Miami either loses SU or wins ATS.

[d2bets]

it doesnt matter how many games boston has lost by 5 or fewer its amount of games heat have won by 5 or fewer and theres not many.

Vegas - Im not saying boston cant win because they can im just saying they wont lose by less than 5

So one side of the ledger matters, but the other doesn't? Seems pretty silly. If you stretch it to 6 then Miami has won a lot within that number (16 times).

[d2bets]

That's not at all what he's saying. He is saying that Boston will either win the game or lose by more than 5. Which is exactly the same as saying Miami either loses SU or wins ATS.

And isn't that the same as saying if it's close Boston will win.

[jjax107]

Taking Boston to win until they lose a playoff game, why go against them

[RL75]

Pretty good analysis. Breezing through the Heat's schedule they are 6-15 straight up in games decided by 5 or less (including playoffs) . I didn't bother to check how the record shakes out against playoff teams.

[VegasInsider]

You obv don't get what is trying to be said. I'm done explaining, someone else can.

[riskyProps]

I don't think the Heat could beat the spread if it's 5 points.

[d2bets]

You obv don't get what is trying to be said. I'm done explaining, someone else can.

Well now we agree, because that's how I feel as well.

[BernardMadoff]

Doesnt make much sense to me, any senario occur.

[san2c]

tons of logic up in this thread

[Scorpion]

Boston +5.5

[Nookx]

I understand why you would think that its Boston ML or Heat -5 but you gotta leave it up to the math and not your initial hunch.

[sweethook]

oh i like it gl.

[Fasttrack]

Liking Boston plus the points.

[james4512]

dont take the points folks thats what im saying, either lay the 5 or take the celtics ML

[HoulihansTX]

If Boston loses by four you will be ridiculed.

BOL

I'm laying the points no matter.

[milwaukee mike]

i would strongly disagree.
there's a lot more value in boston +5 -110 than there is in boston ml +180.

like d2bets said, 1/2 of boston's losses were by 5 points or less so if they have the 35% chance of winning necessary to justify +180 then they have a 67% chance of covering the spread based on past performance...

or put another way, if they win this game 35% of the time, do you really think that 15% of the time, or 1 OUT OF EVERY 4 LOSSES, that boston wouldn't keep it within 5 points? I STRONGLY DON'T. you would have to think that more than 75% of the time if boston loses this game it will be by more than 5, which is completely illogical and not based in boston's history this season.

[DANO74]

Boston covers tomorrow.They know how to finish games.

[SportsPedagogy]

He is saying that Boston has more composure then the Heat. He is saying that If its a close game in the final minutes of an important game Boston > Miami .

[Muscles]

Ill take Boston +5 all day. Certainly possible for them to lose by 1-5. I think they will win the game, but I'll be safe and take the points and the better team. Miami didn't beat top teams all season.

[kidkonggolf]

I really like Celts too. BOL

[AikenJ]

i would strongly disagree.
there's a lot more value in boston +5 -110 than there is in boston ml +180.

like d2bets said, 1/2 of boston's losses were by 5 points or less so if they have the 35% chance of winning necessary to justify +180 then they have a 67% chance of covering the spread based on past performance...

or put another way, if they win this game 35% of the time, do you really think that 15% of the time, or 1 OUT OF EVERY 4 LOSSES, that boston wouldn't keep it within 5 points? I STRONGLY DON'T. you would have to think that more than 75% of the time if boston loses this game it will be by more than 5, which is completely illogical and not based in boston's history this season.

Oh math, how did you get into sports?

[ShogunRua]

After reading this thread, I think I will place a bet on Boston +5.

[Fed_42420]

I understand why you would think that its Boston ML or Heat -5 but you gotta leave it up to the math and not your initial hunch.

whats all this crazy talk about math, what the hell does math have to do with basketball?? Ive never thought about or considered math at all. But Im a player, I try to get into the teams and their players and how they are playing and feeling. I dont see how you could ever win just basing plays on past games math, things are always changing...

[tshizzle]

I actually like boston at +5. Don't think it will be a blowout either way.

[james4512]

i would strongly disagree.
there's a lot more value in boston +5 -110 than there is in boston ml +180.

like d2bets said, 1/2 of boston's losses were by 5 points or less so if they have the 35% chance of winning necessary to justify +180 then they have a 67% chance of covering the spread based on past performance...

or put another way, if they win this game 35% of the time, do you really think that 15% of the time, or 1 OUT OF EVERY 4 LOSSES, that boston wouldn't keep it within 5 points? I STRONGLY DON'T. you would have to think that more than 75% of the time if boston loses this game it will be by more than 5, which is completely illogical and not based in boston's history this season.

this is why your a career loser because you dont go by what you see you make up stupid statistics that are irrelevant. Ok so boston lost 13 games by 5 or less well how many of those were coming off of back to back? How many were against losing teams? How many were when someone was injuried? How many were with perkins out of the line up? I can bet if you factor this exact lineup for boston vs the exact line for miami in the same time frame you will only get 1 or 2 games that would ACCURATELY influence the data. thanks for the effort but it was useless

[bleek88]

miami is going to give boston a taste of their own medicine tomorrow.

[bleek88]

Miami will win by 5. I dont know why all your homers are on Boston, did u see them end the regular season? Or are you basing your statements on the Knicks series.

[ThaTopMoron]

that is why I have BOS +10 in a teaser Heat win it will be by 5-10... not a couple points and certainly not a blowout, if Celts get down DD in 1h, they will of course make a rally no doubt.