Pound the hell out of Miami Game 5

[t-wizzle]

76ers fed off the home crowd today and their strong effort was to be expected but they are completely overmatched. Being a fan, I would love nothing more than to see them keep it close but I am a realist - Game 5 is going to be a blowout. Line should be Miami -11 or so... Either way, Heat are a gift.

[BettingWizard]

76ers ML

[t-wizzle]

76ers ML

Don't do it. Money down the drain.

[Mammon]

Maybe we see -10

[t-wizzle]

Line is 10.5. I only see this going higher.

[Ninersnut]

11 is way too much. Sixers are the play if it creeps higher. Only been one blowout in this series. Sixers got the monkey off their backs catching lighting in a bottle in the last minute. Look for them to play alot more relaxed and keep this relatively close. Last minute fouls will have the Heat winning by 8. + points will be the play here.

[t-wizzle]

Ninersnut, you're from philly. Why the hell are you a niners fan. Makes no sense.

[Ninersnut]

Ninersnut, you're from philly. Why the hell are you a niners fan. Makes no sense.

[t-wizzle]

So is anyone taking this? Great opportunity to take Miami when the whole world isn't on them. 76ers got no shot tomorrow night... Gonna be ugly

[hawley]

i get the feeling Miami wrap this series up comprehensively here

[migz]

t-wizzle, are you going to bomb Heat? Where do you see the line moving?

[stefan084]

I think that line (-10.5) is right on--no bet for me unless I get a good live bet

[Git Lo]

lines have been pretty sharp on miami series except game 2 obvs if anything all in on the ML but I am leaning towards the spread, they are gonna be hungryyyyy.

[NBA_Brosuf]

I'm playing the totals only. I like miami to win but I'm not too sure if they will blow out or keep it close. ML on heat smells good.

[Avenger]

It's another uncappable game, like today's Bull/pacer's game... if you're an action junkie like me, you'll still bet it... but that's because you have no self control.

Of course the Heat could cover it... that's not the question. the real question is does the NBA want a 5 game series or a 7 game series? And if you know the answer, you're god, congratulations.

[NY Playa]

heat by 15 or more....

[NittanyLionsFan]

Ninersnut, you're from philly. Why the hell are you a niners fan. Makes no sense.

Im from Arizona and Im a Chiefs Knicks Blue Jays LA Kings and Penn State fan. And I went to the University of Nebraska. Does that make sense? Idiot.

[JOHON8]

Funny how it went from -10 to -10.5 even with so many people on Philly.

[chico2663]

the heat suck and lebron is a joke

[Git Lo]

Im starting to lean Miami more and more if its at 10.5 its just gonna be an all out blowout. No crowd energy for Philly its all bad for them.

[t-wizzle]

t-wizzle, are you going to bomb Heat? Where do you see the line moving?

I don't see it getting any lower that's for sure. I think it will stay around 10.5/11 ....
In the next couple hours, the juice will change or the line will move - always happens late morning.

[cloudagh]

I would think Miami plays this game with some sense of desparation. They know Boston is resting. The more this series lingers the more likely that Boston gets fresh legs. Not sure abt the points, cause it could be 15-16 points with 2 minutes to go and lebron and company take a seat. I might be tempted to go ML if I had to have action on this game, but that value would be weak. Put the ML with something else you feel strong about in a parlay?

[MysteryMung]

ML is so steep, but I want to bet it pretty bad

[SparJMU]

If you want to compare this series to the Bulls-Pacers, then this situation calls for a Miami blowout. Obviously the series has been very close at times and the Sixers are more than capable of covering a 10.5 point spread. Just like Indiana was very close with Chicago at times, yet they were blown out last night. These two series seem very similar in a lot of ways, and I think both underdogs made their last stands in game 4 with the home crowd.

Of course this is meaningless speculation. If someone had the resources, they could gain some intelligent insight by looking at historical 1st round NBA playoff series in which a heavy favorite can close out a series in game 5.

[SparJMU]

Figured I would add a little more info to my last post in case anyone was thinking about putting in the research, I beat you to it.

My database only goes back to the 2006-2007 season, but here is what I found: There are only three examples in which a favorite won the first 3 games, and lost game 4, with the opportunity to close out the series at home in game 5. Obviously alarms should be going off immediately that a 3 game sample is tiny, but I will give results anyway.

April 2008, #3 Spurs were -5 against #6 seed Phoenix. Spurs took a 9 point lead in the first half, and eventually held off the Suns to win by 5.

April 2010, #4 seed Celtics were -7 against #5 seed Miami. Celtics took a 10 point lead in the first half, and eventually won the game by 10.

April 2011, #1 seed Bulls were -9 against the #8 seeds Pacers. Bulls took an early lead and eventually blew them out.

Just my two cents, and this is probably a -EV bet because of how much juice these books put on money lines, but a MIA and OKC money line parlay is about as close to a "lock" as you are going to get. You can probably get it around -210. Turn $800 into $1,181. Or find a betting exchange with much better lines and bet them each indivually.

[cornhuskfan]

Figured I would add a little more info to my last post in case anyone was thinking about putting in the research, I beat you to it. My database only goes back to the 2006-2007 season, but here is what I found: There are only three examples in which a favorite won the first 3 games, and lost game 4, with the opportunity to close out the series at home in game 5. Obviously alarms should be going off immediately that a 3 game sample is tiny, but I will give results anyway. April 2008, #3 Spurs were -5 against #6 seed Phoenix. Spurs took a 9 point lead in the first half, and eventually held off the Suns to win by 5. April 2010, #4 seed Celtics were -7 against #5 seed Miami. Celtics took a 10 point lead in the first half, and eventually won the game by 10. April 2011, #1 seed Bulls were -9 against the #8 seeds Pacers. Bulls took an early lead and eventually blew them out. Just my two cents, and this is probably a -EV bet because of how much juice these books put on money lines, but a MIA and OKC money line parlay is about as close to a "lock" as you are going to get. You can probably get it around -210. Turn $800 into $1,181. Or find a betting exchange with much better lines and bet them each indivually.

Thats a hell of a database to be able to pull that info up on your own. Best of luck with you wagers.

[asjulian]

yeah miami wins this one in a blowout, sixers would have to get lucky on 3s

[THEGREAT30]

probably good idea

[t-wizzle]

Lebron is so immature, he took issue with a good hard foul by Spencer Hawes last game and I could see something like that motivating him to want to win by 20+. The guy is such a punk.

[politicin]

Heat/Spurs ML parlay!!

[thfootball]

hopefully yesterdays results will be like today, covers on the spread. taking miami to cover the spread

[Preston09]

The line is to big and it might be moving in the wrong direction. At least against the public.

[The Coach's Desk]

The public is burying miami ...bad sign


Philly +10.5

[STAY STRONG]

Miami 1H over looks strong to me.

[brahmabull117]

I don't like the spread here at all


Miami has only beaten Philly by 11+ points once in 8 matchups this year



however, a Miami/Oklahoma City parlay is definately worth a look