The Masters Final Round Play

[VegasInsider]

With Woods comfortably back of McIlroy and many players ahead of him, I'll be making the following play:

Tigers Woods (Final Round Score) U71.5 (-135)

Let's forget about the 3rd Round and how many shots Tiger left on the course. He's still swinging the club well, although not as precise with his iron play as on Friday. Tiger didn't make the putts he needed to early in the round, then he tried to be patient, then when he got chances he didn't take advantage. He wasn't at his best today, but he swung the club than the 2-over par, 74, shows. He'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder on Sunday and doesn't have a choice but to attack. In the past, when Woods has been forced to do this, we've either seen brilliant rounds or just average...and average for Woods in the final round of The Masters is well inside 71.5. One thing I'm comfortable doing is laying -135 on Tiger shooting 1-under par tomorrow. I won't be making any hedge plays, instead banking on Tiger to shoot 71 or better. I do think there is some value is taking The Field vs. McIlroy at +115. There are a whole hell of a lot of players behind him.

Goodluck on your plays tomorrow.

[Br0nxer]

mcilroy is the play

like i told you yesterday. he would pull away and win

taking him against the field -150.

easy money

[BGboothA]

Tiger under par is a nice bet with that price

[iceminers26]

If Tiger was only a few strokes back entering Sunday than I would say go ahead and lay that big juice, (135), on his round going under, but he is a boatload back which IMO knowing that he has that fkn prick mentality and will go for 1st or bust, I think this is a bad play especially laying that kind of juice. Not saying he doesn't pull it off but I just feel he will be pushing to much trying to make up that big gap and it will do him in eventually...I would go the other way, just my thoughts. GL

[BGboothA]

I don't think 135 is that big here. I don't have it front of me. But I have to assume that tiger goes under par on Sunday more than 65% of the time.

[Br0nxer]

I don't think 135 is that big here. I don't have it front of me. But I have to assume that tiger goes under par on Sunday more than 65% of the time.

i wouldnt put a penny on this crybaby when he doesnt have a chance to win on sunday

remember him feigning an injury on a sunday a couple years ago when he had no shot

[rymille83]

should be an exciting sunday

[VegasInsider]

Bronxer,

I respect your opinions, but continually coming into my threads just saying "Tiger sucks" isn't really helping anyone. I think my golf record is saying enough and the last 3 nights I've made nice writeups to help those that might not wager on golf every week like I do. I wouldn't mind it as much if you added some insight and just bash plays.

And for the record...I give Rory 50/50 he wins tomorrow. Very very doubtful that Tiger wins, but there are A LOT of quality plays behind him. Someone from that group is going to shoot 68 tomorrow and McIlroy better not think that he's going to coast by.

[zam77]

We are talkin about final round, Augusta and Tiger here... not a bad play considering he's at least showing a more competitive side than he has been.

[Br0nxer]

Bronxer,

I respect your opinions, but continually coming into my threads just saying "Tiger sucks" isn't really helping anyone. I think my golf record is saying enough and the last 3 nights I've made nice writeups to help those that might not wager on golf every week like I do. I wouldn't mind it as much if you added some insight and just bash plays.

And for the record...I give Rory 50/50 he wins tomorrow. Very very doubtful that Tiger wins, but there are A LOT of quality plays behind him. Someone from that group is going to shoot 68 tomorrow and McIlroy better not think that he's going to coast by.

you told me mcilroy was backing up and had no shot

and i told you he would pull away today and win

i like my position

[VegasInsider]

If Tiger was only a few strokes back entering Sunday than I would say go ahead and lay that big juice, (135), on his round going under, but he is a boatload back which IMO knowing that he has that fkn prick mentality and will go for 1st or bust, I think this is a bad play especially laying that kind of juice. Not saying he doesn't pull it off but I just feel he will be pushing to much trying to make up that big gap and it will do him in eventually...I would go the other way, just my thoughts. GL

I have to disagree with you here on a couple points. First, I don't think -135 are really that high of odds...especially when betting golf. I wager on it every week, so maybe I'm just used to seeing this kind of odds. Secondly, Tiger has seen these pins placements for Sunday at Augusta for 15 years. He will be aggressive, no question about it...but he also knows that some pins CANNOT be accessed unless you play the ridge either behind or next to the landing area. That being said, when he doesn't hit his spot...he'll be looking at 30 footers for birdie instead of 8-12 footers or closer. All four par-5's will be reached in two regardless if he's leading by 5 or trailing by 10...so there won't be any risk/reward choices to be made there. He'll make more putts tomorrow and I highly doubt he'll miss another three inside of 4 feet. Should be fun to watch.

[Roxxyfish]

hmm Rory looks good , i stillhave to go with my pick Jason Day

you told me mcilroy was backing up and had no shot and i told you he would pull away today and win i like my position

[VegasInsider]

you told me mcilroy was backing up and had no shot

and i told you he would pull away today and win

i like my position

I absolutely DID NOT say that McIlroy "had no shot". Please don't put words in my mouth to try and strengthen your argument. However, I didn't think that McIlroy would pull away like he did the final 5 holes on Saturday...that was pretty impressive, especially when things weren't quite going his way when him and Day were backing up the field slightly.

If you have McIlroy TO WIN...I like your position too.

[CharlestonCock]

On this also VI, good luck to all!

[Br0nxer]

I absolutely DID NOT say that McIlroy "had no shot". Please don't put words in my mouth to try and strengthen your argument. However, I didn't think that McIlroy would pull away like he did the final 5 holes on Saturday...that was pretty impressive, especially when things weren't quite going his way when him and Day were backing up the field slightly.

If you have McIlroy TO WIN...I like your position too.

you told me i was crazy and that mcilroy was "leaking oil"

[iceminers26]

I have to disagree with you here on a couple points. First, I don't think -135 are really that high of odds...especially when betting golf. I wager on it every week, so maybe I'm just used to seeing this kind of odds. Secondly, Tiger has seen these pins placements for Sunday at Augusta for 15 years. He will be aggressive, no question about it...but he also knows that some pins CANNOT be accessed unless you play the ridge either behind or next to the landing area. That being said, when he doesn't hit his spot...he'll be looking at 30 footers for birdie instead of 8-12 footers or closer. All four par-5's will be reached in two regardless if he's leading by 5 or trailing by 10...so there won't be any risk/reward choices to be made there. He'll make more putts tomorrow and I highly doubt he'll miss another three inside of 4 feet. Should be fun to watch.

First part, (135) might not be considered high for you and some others but I rarely play anything over the standard (110) so in my view its relatively high. Everyones different when it comes to their cutoff range on juice so don't mean any disrespect with my post, we just have different cutoffs.

Second part, you did your homework on this play...I'm not playing anything in this tourney so I wish you nothing but the best of luck with your wager. GL.

[VegasInsider]

you told me i was crazy and that mcilroy was "leaking oil"

Once again, you've put words in my mouth to make your argument. I DID say that McIlroy "was starting to leak oil badly the final 9 holes"....you are right about that and it's the truth

NO WHERE in the entire thread did I call you crazy for backing Rory, liking Rory to win or being a supporter. If you don't remember....here is the link to the thread:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1026323-people-tiger-win.html?slf=31

[Br0nxer]

here is what betting tiger in any form or fashion does to your money

[VegasInsider]

First part, (135) might not be considered high for you and some others but I rarely play anything over the standard (110) so in my view its relatively high. Everyones different when it comes to their cutoff range on juice so don't mean any disrespect with my post, we just have different cutoffs.

Second part, you did your homework on this play...I'm not playing anything in this tourney so I wish you nothing but the best of luck with your wager. GL.

Thank you for the support miners!

I don't really like to play anything in the -135 range besides golf. I'm kind of like you and try to stay under -110. Golf is so tough because there can't be line movements since one-half shot is worth so much in terms of odds. If the wager read Woods U71, it would expected that the odds on that play would be +115 or more. Odds can change up to 50 cents for one-half shot.

[VegasInsider]

here is what betting tiger in any form or fashion does to your money

Betting Tiger in certain situations can be profitable...like I have.

I've backed Tiger three times this season and I'm 3-0. I've backed him TWICE in tournament matchups against the #1 player in the world Martin Kaymer and he's defeated him. The third wager was Tiger U70.5 in the Second Round of The Masters. Hopefully we can make it 4-0 tomorrow. The TO WIN wager for .25 units is most likely lost however.

[iceminers26]

Thank you for the support miners! I don't really like to play anything in the -135 range besides golf. I'm kind of like you and try to stay under -110. Golf is so tough because there can't be line movements since one-half shot is worth so much in terms of odds. If the wager read Woods U71, it would expected that the odds on that play would be +115 or more. Odds can change up to 50 cents for one-half shot.

valid point, similiar to tennis cap, a 1/2 point one way or the other can change the price quite a bit.

[valaub04]

Tiger has played 14 Masters as a professional. In those 14 tourneys his final round scoring average is 70.71 strokes. He has shot higher than 71 only twice. Those times were in 2003 and 1999 with both scores being 75. I like your play VI.

[iifold]

Why is Day 17-1 to win?

[playersonly69]

Tiger will most likely break 70 as a matter of fact

[valaub04]

to try and get money on him. as soon as he (Jason Day) got a 1 shot lead today - Saturday - he started backing up immediately. I definitely think he would wilt under full pressure on Sunday. JMO.

[Giroux]

Betting Rory to win is a bad bet imo. It is very very very hard to lead wire to wire (or have a share of the lead). Golf like any other sport is a game of numbers, and Rory is due for a bad day. I will gladly take the field at +120 over Rory.

[VegasInsider]

U71.5 looks pretty damn good

[bamacards]

tiger under is looking good--nice job with your pick

[VegasInsider]

Winner!

2-0 this week on Tiger O/U plays. Should cash Tiger Top 10 for 1 unit and lose Tiger to win for .25 units

[Broken-Ear Glen]

hey yo brezzy...lemme show you how to keep the dice rollin' over there