Only pick an underdog or a road team if you're convinced it has a chance- Good rule?

[cleaveland]

to win the game outright

The rule: Only pick an underdog or a road team if you're convinced it has a chance to win the game outright

Is that a good sportsbetting rule? It comes from Bill Simmons' "NFL Playoff Manifesto 4.0" and I've always thought that was the best rule out of Simmons' rules, you can read them all here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/060106a

I can't understand when people take a team plus the points because they think the team can keep the game close. I see posters say things like "I don't expect them to win but I think they'll cover".... If you don't think they've got a chance to win why take them?

[OmgUrMom]

if you think this is a "good rule" save your money and don't bet anything you don't plan on losing.

This shouldn't be a rule, its common fukking sense.

Would it ever make sense to bet an underdog or road team if you were convinced THEY DIDNT have a chance?

[cleaveland]

if you think this is a "good rule" save your money and don't bet anything you don't plan on losing.

This shouldn't be a rule, its common fukking sense.

Would it ever make sense to bet an underdog or road team if you were convinced THEY DIDNT have a chance?

I can guarantee you a lot of people taking the T-Wolves tonight don't think they have a chance to win but "14 points is an awful lot", you know.