I agree with the other thread on this board re the Derby, posted by dodif (tho I did not read that thread until I finished my 'capping).
PYRO to win
Also have to agree with dodif that you just can't use the likely fave, Big Brown. He has promise - having won all three of his races by a total of almost 30 lengths - but breaking from post 20, and not having the minimum experience that has been for near a hundred years required of a Derby winner - well, not for me.
Tho he may overcome all that, against a mediocre field of 3 year olds. But I'll go against him, and will also dutch him out in all the exotic bets.
Racing, as I've said, is a mug's game. And tht's what I'm gonna bet - mug money. About what I'd pay for a mug of suds.
Churchill for the first few races this morning was "sloppy," and drying out, which would make it more like "sticky."
If rain stays away it will be "fast" come posttime for the Derby, but thunderstorms are predicted.
If the track is "off," I will include in both my straight betting and exotics (pretzel money) # 12, SMOOTH AIR, who won twice on off tracks, was second last out to Big Brown, and has hit the board in all 7 of its starts.
Other bets for exotics:
#5 EIGHT BELLES - Loves to win (5 for 9, and only once our of money, but a female who takes on boys for first time. A handful of fillies have won this race, but all had previously beaten males.
# 10 COLONEL JOHN - Won Santa Anita Derby, pullling away. Question is will he run as well off the synthetic.
#14 MONBA - Blue Grass winner, top trainer. Needs to stay fairly close to pace. A gray, so easy to spot when running.
# 19 GAYEGO - Bad post, but 3 wins, 2 seconds in five lifetime tries.
Churchill Downs has got to stop these 20 horse field stampedes, and limit it to main gate only, 14 horses.
Below are my picks for some other racing around the country tody.
PYRO to win
Also have to agree with dodif that you just can't use the likely fave, Big Brown. He has promise - having won all three of his races by a total of almost 30 lengths - but breaking from post 20, and not having the minimum experience that has been for near a hundred years required of a Derby winner - well, not for me.
Tho he may overcome all that, against a mediocre field of 3 year olds. But I'll go against him, and will also dutch him out in all the exotic bets.
Racing, as I've said, is a mug's game. And tht's what I'm gonna bet - mug money. About what I'd pay for a mug of suds.
Churchill for the first few races this morning was "sloppy," and drying out, which would make it more like "sticky."
If rain stays away it will be "fast" come posttime for the Derby, but thunderstorms are predicted.
If the track is "off," I will include in both my straight betting and exotics (pretzel money) # 12, SMOOTH AIR, who won twice on off tracks, was second last out to Big Brown, and has hit the board in all 7 of its starts.
Other bets for exotics:
#5 EIGHT BELLES - Loves to win (5 for 9, and only once our of money, but a female who takes on boys for first time. A handful of fillies have won this race, but all had previously beaten males.
# 10 COLONEL JOHN - Won Santa Anita Derby, pullling away. Question is will he run as well off the synthetic.
#14 MONBA - Blue Grass winner, top trainer. Needs to stay fairly close to pace. A gray, so easy to spot when running.
# 19 GAYEGO - Bad post, but 3 wins, 2 seconds in five lifetime tries.
Churchill Downs has got to stop these 20 horse field stampedes, and limit it to main gate only, 14 horses.
Below are my picks for some other racing around the country tody.