would you take this bet?

[pico]

suppose you're in vegas and you're having a hot streak at the craps table, and before you throw the dice some rich douchebag comes up to you and want to make a side bet with you. keep in mind you're playing at the 10 dollar min table and your current bankroll is about 500 dollars. he said on your next throw only, if it comes out even, he'll pay you 600 dollars and if it come out odd, he'll take your entire 500 dollar bankroll. assume the casino doesn't care, would you take the side bet from this rich douchebag for the next roll only.

[robmpink]

suppose you're in vegas and you're having a hot streak at the craps table, and before you throw the dice some rich douchebag comes up to you and want to make a side bet with you. keep in mind you're playing at the 10 dollar min table and your current bankroll is about 500 dollars. he said on your next throw only, if it comes out even, he'll pay you 600 dollars and if it come out odd, he'll take your entire 500 dollar bankroll. assume the casino doesn't care, would you take the side bet from this rich douchebag for the next roll only.

You must be bored.

[MrX]

suppose you're in vegas and you're having a hot streak at the craps table, and before you throw the dice some rich douchebag comes up to you and want to make a side bet with you. keep in mind you're playing at the 10 dollar min table and your current bankroll is about 500 dollars. he said on your next throw only, if it comes out even, he'll pay you 600 dollars and if it come out odd, he'll take your entire 500 dollar bankroll. assume the casino doesn't care, would you take the side bet from this rich douchebag for the next roll only.

If you want to think in terms of Kelly Criterion, you should never bet your entire bankroll without a win probability of 1. But it's kind of a trick question, because you shouldn't be betting $10 on a -EV game in the first place.

[Justin7]

Great edge, and you're overbetting your bankroll. Pass.

[MrX]

As an aside, anyone who offers me this bet is no douchebag in my opinion. He can hang out with me anytime as long as he brings money.

[slacker00]

What if he wanted to roll for $5k or $50K? Money that you just don't have?

I guess it pays to have a backer. Maybe a higher roller that you can call on in these kinds of situations. I'm not deep enough in the gambling scene, but based on my watching poker on TV, the gambling pros almost have a kind of "secret" society in which they are always staking each other and soaking up action back & forth. Of course, you don't want to give away value if you can help it, but it probably only scores points with your backer when you call him up with some great value to bet.