Horse Racing is a Mug's Game!!

[ritehook]

It's a British expression - a mug is a sucker.

If you're not a deep insider - and you're not if you're reading this - you're beaten before you start. Try on 16% to 25% takeout.

When pari-mutuel wagering begain in the late 30s the take was around 5%. And of course the crooks also grab the breakage too.

No "sport" that began primarily as a betting game - as did horse racing - can be conducted honestly. I have no doubt that ancient Romans in togas were slipping some juice to Ben Hur.

That said, I will buy a Form tomorrow for the Ky Derby - and likely post my picks here.

And I'll bet mug money only.

[topgame85]

Fully agreed just got home and took an ass beating $600 gone real quick I have made my final decision to not bet the ponies anymore not worth it I can be a sports gambling junkie but the animals are done for me

[bettilimbroke999]

If you're not a deep insider - and you're not if you're reading this - you're beaten before you start. Try on 16% to 25% takeout.[/B]

Absolutely right in all respects, you must have read a book about the history of horse racing/gambling. The truth is the takeouts have gone way UP while the pools have sunk to nothing, one of the reasons is they want tax dollars from horse wagering and they tax the living fuk out of it, much moreso percentagewise (not dollarwise as horse racing/dog racing is no longer popular). In the past you could possibly have turned a decent profit by placing a win wager receiving odds of 5-1 on a horse which was 3-1 to win in reality, now that 3-1 horse would be fukin 2/1, to place would pay next to nothing and the exotics odds are a fukin April Fool's joke these days. It is truly a form of entertainment today, not gambling. When the odds sink this low of even winning on any particular day I call it entertainment, to me horseracing pick 6 maybe the only way to bet and that is b/c I put it in the same category as the lottery, pick the numbers and pray and if you are the luckier than a ten dick dog you win, otherwise you lose a small wager.

[INVEGA MAN]

The only thing I know is I will be betting against a lot of women and men who like to bet numbers and horses who have no chance to win. I will take my shot against them on Saturday. They love throwing their money away and I will be there to try to take it. You compare horse racing to the lottery. I don't think so. I have never hit the lottery but have hit quite a few pk 3's. If you can read a race form, you can throw out at least 4 to 5 horses who have no shot to win. In the lottery, I can never throw out 4 or 5 numbers.

[gordon gekko]

Betting on horses is the biggest sucker bet around, only degenerates bet on horses.

[cobra_king]

Betting on horses is the biggest sucker bet around, only degenerates bet on horses.

Than i guess i've been a degenerate since the early 90's when i graduated university and haven't had a "real" job since.

[dodif]

Like all gambling its for suckers
However for a pro like me horses have been a great

[2Pac]

It should be treated just like the casino --- entertainment. You have to pay for entertainment.

[gordon gekko]

Than i guess i've been a degenerate since the early 90's when i graduated university and haven't had a "real" job since.

[cobra_king]

exact response i expected from you. It's like anything, just because you can't do it, doesn't mean it can't be done.

[turnip]

It's a British expression - a mug is a sucker.

I am familiar with the expression thanks to Neil Gaiman.

"Death is a mug's game. I've got so much to live for...[Let's meet at this tavern again in 100 years]"

</nerd>

[Stumpage]

I can speak for Cobra here, seeing that I've known him since we were kids.....The guy is simply awesome capping horses and makes a very comfortable living doing just that. Perhaps I should have just ridden his coat-tails for the last 3 decades.....

As for Gordon Gekko....I don't know...Maybe you're just not very good??

[ritehook]

The only way to come out ahead in horse racing is to do what Woodward and Bernstein did during thier Watergate investigation (at the urging of their source, "Deep Throat"):

FOLLOW THE MONEY

A creative reading of the toto board. To do so creatively takes time, it's full-time work.

But the cheaters - the game is owned by cheaters -can't hide the money. Yes, they can and do bet offshore, but count on it the offshore books will unload excess thru the parimutuels, simultanously driving down odds and protecting their book.

A big step forward for American racing would be to absolutely ban any kind of race-day medication for the animals, just like they do in Europe. Not a total solution, but a step forward.

[cobra_king]

Following the money is one way to do it, but it's not the only way and it's not the way i've done it. I also own horses with one of the most successful trainers in Canada and i've given up on wagering on his "tips". Sure he knows when his horses are good but he can't account for any of the others. Money is influential on babies and barn changes but it's significance is greatly reduced when it comes to veteran racehorses.

[ritehook]

Following the money is one way to do it, but it's not the only way and it's not the way i've done it. I also own horses with one of the most successful trainers in Canada and i've given up on wagering on his "tips". Sure he knows when his horses are good but he can't account for any of the others. Money is influential on babies and barn changes but it's significance is greatly reduced when it comes to veteran racehorses.

There are competing interests in each horse race.

The general public either thinks that (a) all the races are rigidly fixed, with the order of finish precisely predetermined; or (b) that it's a crazy random contest where anything can win.

Truth lies somewhere in between. Even veteran traiiners cannot always know when their horses are slotted to win.
Former top SoCal trainer Gary Jones (of the famous training family) told me once that there was a lot of weird stuff going on at the big tracks. (Jones developed a drinking problem due to pressures put on him by owners who insisted he give them winners).

Nevertheless, there is a lot of foul play in the game. The top vet for the Calif Horse Racing Board, in Sacramento, admitted to me that there was no really effective way to keep up with all the designer drugs that were consstantly coming into play, to give one horse or another a "leg up." LOL

It is laughable to see so-called expert handicappers boasting of their prowess in interpreting the data in the Form. Most players would be better off without that misleading rag.

I've seen "professional" players painstakingly tranlate lengths behind into hundreds of a second, for god's sake. If these fools could only see how a "trackman" makes the chart from which the past performances are drawn, he'll quickly abandon that absurd practice.

If you are an owner, get into the press box and ask if you can, quietly, watch the trackman (now working for equibase) go about his racecalling. (I once asked one of them if he reviewed the races before sending in the chart. "No, no time for that. They want this stuff fast.")

Nor does the "handicapper" in the stands know which jockeys in any race are carrying a joint (buzzer). These are used much, much more than the average handicapper could ever guess.

Yes, even at the major plants. Tomorrow, when I make my picks here, I'll relate a true story of how this went down one time at Del Mar.

[cobra_king]

I don't disagree with alot of what you are saying. As i have stated before in a previous thread, though i use to play both breeds, i now only concentrate on harness racing. Of course most people think that there is even more cheating in harness racing than in thoroughbred racing. Neither game is clean, that is obvious, but my original point was that the game can be beaten, and that it can be beaten in ways other than just following the money. The rest of what you say about drugs and the "tom foolery" of interpreting some of the Racing Form data, you will get no disagreement from me there.

[fathead]

Betting on horses is the biggest sucker bet around, only degenerates bet on horses.

Yawn.

This topic comes up every few months on the forums. "Horses cannot be beat, a sucker's game, only losers bet on horses, the takeout is too huge..." Yada Yada Yada.

The truth is that there are lots of people in this country either making a comfortable living or making a nice side income off of their horse bets.

And, no, you don't need inside info. The Daily Racing Form data will do just fine if you know how to crunch the numbers.

I am glad that most people lose at horses. They are the ones that pay the winners. If everyone had the winner, nobody would make any money betting horses.