Blowouts, blow up props......

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  • seaborneq
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 09-08-06
    • 22556

    #1
    Blowouts, blow up props......
    Had AIguadola points + rebounds over 22.5. He had 20 and did not play ANY in the fourth quarter. Why do I torture myself like this?
  • pico
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-05-07
    • 27321

    #2
    props are for entertainment only.
    Comment
    • bettilimbroke999
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-04-08
      • 13254

      #3
      Good bet, but like all total bets/prop bets depend totally on the distance the teams are apart. If the distance is ten miles they yank Iggy pop and it goes under if the game is close Iggy stays in and total over. Fastest way to go broke is totals in the NBA, truly terrible way to gamble, 110/100 on a coinflip.
      Comment
      • seaborneq
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-08-06
        • 22556

        #4
        Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
        Good bet, but like all total bets/prop bets depend totally on the distance the teams are apart. If the distance is ten miles they yank Iggy pop and it goes under if the game is close Iggy stays in and total over. Fastest way to go broke is totals in the NBA, truly terrible way to gamble, 110/100 on a coinflip.

        I totally agree with you. If I can go one season without betting a total I would be rich.
        Comment
        • donjuan
          SBR MVP
          • 08-29-07
          • 3993

          #5
          props are for entertainment only.
          Amusing, but incorrect. Props are awesome if you like money.
          Comment
          • donjuan
            SBR MVP
            • 08-29-07
            • 3993

            #6
            Fastest way to go broke is totals in the NBA, truly terrible way to gamble, 110/100 on a coinflip.
            Um, no.
            Comment
            • bettilimbroke999
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-04-08
              • 13254

              #7
              Originally posted by donjuan
              Um, no.
              Dude, I've gambled several thousand games over the past 10 yrs. I have had bets every night for the past year, I assure you I would be long since broke if I didn't know what I'm talking about. The only reason there is significant disparity between total lines and actual totals is b/c of the effect of slow down vs. speedup play and OT. In other words a total of 190 when a team is ahead by 25 will end up way under do to the ahead team taking half a minute per shot resulting in much less FG opportunities and both sides taking out their star players, when a game is within single digits there is no slowdown and no removal of star players and the obvious chance for OT which adds 5 mins to the game, intentional fouling, etc. and the total tends to go either significantly over or end right around the number depending on what's causing the game to be so close (both teams shooting like shit or both teams shooting well). In either event the number one way to determine if a game is going to go under/over would be the margin of victory. The truth of the matter is that totals in the NBA are absolute coinflips to bet on day in day out (occasionally a line might show up that is a couple points off but that is about the extent of getting a "good" line, check out how seldom a total is moved on steam over 2-3 pts (1 basket in an hour) it happens around once every blue moon, only exceptions are when a star player is injured). If you are kickin ass on NBA totals congrats you are a very lucky SOB, I assure you it will not last. Check out the open and close total lines and you will see that virtually all open and close within 1 pt, if sharps were hammering totals there would be a much greater disparity.
              Comment
              • donjuan
                SBR MVP
                • 08-29-07
                • 3993

                #8
                Let me be the first, but certainly not the last, to say you don't have a clue what you're talking about.
                Comment
                • bettilimbroke999
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-04-08
                  • 13254

                  #9
                  Originally posted by donjuan
                  Let me be the first, but certainly not the last, to say you don't have a clue what you're talking about.
                  That was a well thought out argument . Donjuan you are clearly a sharp bettor. If you think you can avg. long-term greater than the 53% breakeven percentage necessary to profit at -110 on NBA totals I assure you you are dead ****ing wrong, unless you are a ref in the NBA.
                  Comment
                  • donjuan
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-29-07
                    • 3993

                    #10
                    It's all your abortion of a post deserved. Ever heard of line shopping?
                    Comment
                    • pico
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 04-05-07
                      • 27321

                      #11
                      Originally posted by donjuan
                      Amusing, but incorrect. Props are awesome if you like money.
                      props has 30 cents vigs and they're not parlayable. you gotta know your shit if you want to make money on those. i will stick to my 10 cents vig ml bets for now.
                      Comment
                      • bettilimbroke999
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-04-08
                        • 13254

                        #12
                        Originally posted by donjuan
                        It's all your abortion of a post deserved. Ever heard of line shopping?
                        Okay line shop to where you are paying less juice on a coinflip at Matchbook or other low juice books perhaps and try to scalp a fukin point in a 200 pt game, sounds like fun. Anyway, I'm looking forward to football I miss the money it provides me, NBA is a fukin nightmare that's not even entertaining to watch, fukin ghetto piece of shit decides to miss every layup today, decides to make every shot tomorrow, meanwhile dumbasses explaining how both games were easy money.
                        Comment
                        • donjuan
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-29-07
                          • 3993

                          #13
                          props has 30 cents vigs and they're not parlayable. you gotta know your if you want to make money on those. i will stick to my 10 cents vig ml bets for now.
                          If you know how to value them, they are a great source of money.
                          Comment
                          • donjuan
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-29-07
                            • 3993

                            #14
                            Okay line shop to where you are paying less juice on a coinflip at Matchbook or other low juice books perhaps and try to scalp a fukin point in a 200 pt game, sounds like fun.
                            Juice doesn't matter as long as you can get the right number, something that goes over the head of most here.
                            Comment
                            • Justin7
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 07-31-06
                              • 8577

                              #15
                              Originally posted by picoman
                              props are for entertainment only.
                              If you do this for a living, and have a bankroll of under 100k, props are your bread and butter.
                              Comment
                              • pico
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 04-05-07
                                • 27321

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Justin7
                                If you do this for a living, and have a bankroll of under 100k, props are your bread and butter.
                                you must be the guy who limit bet props across the books.
                                Comment
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