** // Parlay Betting Strategy Analysis \\ **

[lcscanada]

I've been doing fairly well with parlays lately. Yes I know, sucker bet, juice rape, etc... but I love 'em. So I am trying to formulate optimum strategies and I would appreciate any constructive feedback, and as well, maybe you could share your parlay tips if you do bet parlays.

I usually shop for 2 lines that are very generous (on moneyline, no spread), that I am confident will win, and then add teams from there, and keeping my first two picks constant and using them as anchors.

Example: (decimal format)
Team A, B - very confident, pays 1.6 (usually strong favorite visiting team vs over rated home team)
Team C - fairly confident, pays 2.0
Team D - good dog, pays 2.2
Team E - visitor surging team dog, 2.6
Team F - underdog playing well dog, 2.8

I parlay these into 6 tickets, $50 each.
Ticket 1: A, B, C
Ticket 2: A, B, D
Ticket 3: A, B, E
Ticket 4: A, B, F
Ticket 5: A, B, C, D, E
Ticket 6 A, B, C, D, E, F

Now Obviously, if team A, B loses, it's a big loss. However if those two win, then your an overall winner by a good margin if at least 1+ other teams win, and have a chance at a few big scores, or even one gigantic score.

I don't do this all the time, but sometimes you'll see that team A, and B should have lines at 1.3, but the lines are generous because the bookie did not do his homework, so you can capitalize.

Anyone else try this? OR do you have a strategy of your own? Thanks for the input.

[Toples]

just stay away from parlays, you will have huge ups and downs

[lcscanada]

No.

[tomcowley]

This is totally stupid. If you have an edge, bet primarily straights. If you don't (more likely), don't bet.

Donk Horse, is this your gimmick?

[lcscanada]

If I want to reserve 5% of my winnings to play the lottery for fun, there is nothing wrong with that. Some people like to go out and buy a dance, some like beer, others like video games, whatever, i love pushing a bit of profit for a short term big win to buy something bigger and better. I know it's a gamble and i consider it entertainment. I am just trying to optimize ways to win. I never said I was looking to get rich quick and find the holy grail of parlay betting and instantly become the superhero of SBR forums and degenerates.

I simply am asking if anyone who plays parlays have some sort of optimization strategy. I don't need redundant posts of how bad it is to bet on parlays. Hence the reason I posted it in the original post. I just asked for constructive advice.

[Pancho sanza]

If I want to reserve 5% of my winnings to play the lottery for fun, there is nothing wrong with that. Some people like to go out and buy a dance, some like beer, others like video games, whatever, i love pushing a bit of profit for a short term big win to buy something bigger and better. I know it's a gamble and i consider it entertainment. I am just trying to optimize ways to win. I never said I was looking to get rich quick and find the holy grail of parlay betting and instantly become the superhero of SBR forums and degenerates.

I simply am asking if anyone who plays parlays have some sort of optimization strategy. I don't need redundant posts of how bad it is to bet on parlays. Hence the reason I posted it in the original post. I just asked for constructive advice.

Any optimization will suggest betting zero if none of your parlay legs are edges.

If you must throw your money away, just round robin your games.

[FourLengthsClear]

If I want to reserve 5% of my winnings to play the lottery for fun, there is nothing wrong with that. Some people like to go out and buy a dance, some like beer, others like video games, whatever, i love pushing a bit of profit for a short term big win to buy something bigger and better. I know it's a gamble and i consider it entertainment. I am just trying to optimize ways to win. I never said I was looking to get rich quick and find the holy grail of parlay betting and instantly become the superhero of SBR forums and degenerates.

I simply am asking if anyone who plays parlays have some sort of optimization strategy. I don't need redundant posts of how bad it is to bet on parlays. Hence the reason I posted it in the original post. I just asked for constructive advice.

Yes there is.
This forum (the Think Tank) is not about ways to limit or mitigate losses on "for fun" plays.

Your combinations do not take account of the edge you have and therefore it doesn't really matter (variance aside) whether the individial legs are "good dogs" or "visiting surging team dogs".

[lcscanada]

Fair enough. Round robin looks good.