Gonna pound the table on this bet 1 more time.

[SBR_John]

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE 15951 HILLARY CLINTON +350 - -

15952 BARACK OBAMA -600

Lay the -600!

I started a thread 3 weeks ago about grabbing this bet at -400. The bet maxs are low everywhere so it will take a little work to get down and make a meaningful score.

Cap this like any game. Even if Hillary wins every remaining state by a 60%-40% margin she still losses. Only a bizzare hail Mary can backdoor this bet. This is simply a media event now, true odds should be more like 1/60 not 1/6.

ZERO chance the supers will deprive a black man if he is ahead by even one delegate much less a 100+(as it should be).

I think she will drop out after the North Carolina thumping so this could be money in a week.

[durito]

i have +200

[imgv94]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...WJk&refer=home

Clinton Leads McCain by 9 Points Nationwide, AP Poll Shows

By Julianna Goldman
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hillary Clinton does better than Democratic presidential rival Barack Obama when matched against Republican John McCain, according to the latest Associated Press- Ipsos poll.
Clinton leads McCain 50 percent to 41 percent while Obama is ahead 46 percent to 44 percent, within the margin of error, according to the poll taken after Clinton's Pennsylvania primary victory. Earlier this month, the poll showed Clinton leading 48 percent to 45 percent over McCain, and Obama and the presumptive Republican nominee were tied at 45 percent.
Senator Clinton of New York has been arguing that she has a better chance of beating McCain than Senator Obama of Illinois, who leads in the delegate race for the Democratic nomination. The Democrats' uncommitted superdelegates, drawn from party officeholders and leaders, are in position to determine who gets the nomination.
Among Democratic voters, Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent, according to the AP-Ipsos poll taken April 23-27. That is unchanged from the previous survey about two weeks earlier.
The survey also found that 44 percent of Democrats think the protracted battle for the nomination will make it harder for Democrats to win in November, while 30 percent don't think it will have an impact and 18 percent believe it will help Democrats win the general election.
The telephone poll surveyed 1,001 adults nationwide. The margin of error among Democratic and likely Democratic voters was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points and among Republicans and likely Republican voters plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.
The matchups against Senator McCain of Arizona are closer in a Gallup poll released today. Clinton leads McCain 47 percent to 44 percent while Obama runs even with him at 45 percent, the poll found.
That is within the margin of error in the telephone survey of 4,346 national registered voters taken April 23-27.
A Gallup telephone survey of 1,230 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters taken April 25-27 has Obama leading Clinton 47 percent to 46 percent, also within the margin of error.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Beware of this crap with his pastor. Dems may get (rightfully) scared that McCain can use this issue to defeat Barack & defect back to Hillary.

Good luck.

[treece]

i hope hillary wins the democrats nomination. maybe i'm racist, then again everyone is if you think about it.

[durito]

you can't take the votes away that already happened.

[SBR Lou]

i hope hillary wins the democrats nomination. maybe i'm racist, then again everyone is if you think about it.

That's probably true. I think we're better off w/ Obama than Clinton or McCain though.

[DrunkenLullaby]

See John. See John sweat. Sweat John, sweat.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080501/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc

Obama hurt by furor over ex pastor: polls

By JoAnne Allen 59 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's loss in the Pennsylvania primary and the political firestorm over his former pastor have cut into his lead over rival Hillary Clinton among Democratic voters, according to polls released on Wednesday.

According to a New York Times/CBS News poll, 51 percent of Democratic voters now say they expect Obama to win their party's nomination. That's an 18 point-slide from a month ago when 69 percent said they expected Obama to take on Republican John McCain in the November presidential election.

The latest survey found that 48 percent of Democrats believe Obama, an Illinois senator, has a better chance of beating McCain than Clinton, a New York senator, versus 56 percent a month ago.

The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, before Obama strongly denounced his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, for making racially charged comments that roiled the Illinois senator's presidential campaign.

Obama's campaign was engulfed by the Wright controversy after a nearly 10-point loss to Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary early this month.

The Times/CBS poll also found that Democrats see no early end to the Obama-Clinton battle. About 70 percent of Democratic voters predict that their party's nominee will not be decided before the party's national nominating convention in August, the newspaper said.

A majority of Democrats also said the protracted primary race will eventually hurt the Democratic Party's chances against McCain, the Republican senator from Arizona, in the general election.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,065 adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points over all, and plus or minus 5 percentage points among Democrats alone.

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that some voters feel McCain better reflects their values than the Democratic candidates.

Fifty-four percent of respondents said that they identify with McCain's background and his set of values, compared with 35 percent who didn't feel that connection.

In the survey, 45 percent said they identify with Obama's values, down 5 points from last month when 50 percent of voters said they identified with his background and values, versus 39 percent who did not.

The decline seems to suggest that the cover over his former pastor his comment about "bitter" small-town America clinging to guns and religion have had a negative impact, NBC said.

On the background/values question, Obama's score fell among small-town/rural voters from 46 percent support to 31 percent. Among elderly voters, Obama dropped from 52 percent identifying with his values to 36 percent.

The poll of 1,006 registered voters was conducted from Friday through Monday and has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

[DrunkenLullaby]

P.S. If anybody still likes John's tip, you only have to lay -376 in WSEX interactives.

[Panic]

I think Obama is in trouble. The Clinton machine is coming. This pastor shit is just what the doctor ordered for Billary.

[DrunkenLullaby]

The Clinton machine is coming. This pastor shit is just what the doctor ordered for Billary.

Yep. Proving once again that politics & religion shouldn't mix.

Separation of church & state - what a novel concept!

[Panic]

Yep. Proving once again that politics & religion shouldn't mix.

Separation of church & state - what a novel concept!

I agree. Things are turning quick now.

-polls showing Hillary would beat McCain in the general
-Mike Easley comes out and endorses Hillary
-the pastor of disaster hurting Obama.

[Cannon]

Hillary will **** him out of it at the convention. Ha can't win.

[SBR_John]

Lots of scalps out there. The 3 way betting which includes Hillary and the Dems vs Rep is ripe but the small potato limits means a lot of work to wrestle in a C-note or two.

[Panic]

How funny is it to watch Hillary stick around in this thing out of spite. You know she's only doing this because she lost the nomination. She's so pissed right now, she cant see straight. She's gonna fvck her party, because she feels they fvcked her.

[JRS21386]

John McCain will be the next President of the United States...

[Panic]

I agree.

[ShamsWoof10]

There are several reasons why Obama is a LOCK but the best reason is that "Panic" likes Hillary....

I'm hammmmmmering Obama for Dem. and Presidential winner...

[JRS21386]

Obama will never win president... He's too inexperienced... he hasnt even been overseas.. He is going to get slaughtered in the general election... and he will end up saying something retarded and people will see just how much of a joke he is...

[ShamsWoof10]

Obama will never win president... He's too inexperienced... he hasnt even been overseas.. He is going to get slaughtered in the general election... and he will end up saying something retarded and people will see just how much of a joke he is...

What does Vegas see that you don't...?

[JRS21386]

Its too early... You don't think that things happen in the general election? I mean favorites lose everyday... lol... Hillary Clinton was a favorite long before Obama surfaced.. It's already been said by all the major analysts that Hillary has the best shot at beating Obama...

Obama = No military experience, Only 7 years in the senate (NEVER BEEN OVERSEAS), Lack of knowledge, Muslim name... I mean you dont think America is going to see through this smokescreen?

57% of white american democrats support Hillary Clinton, Majority have said will vote for McCain if Obama is nominee...

[topgame85]

It appears that this bet is just for the democratic nominee not for president

[ShamsWoof10]

Its too early... You don't think that things happen in the general election? I mean favorites lose everyday... lol... Hillary Clinton was a favorite long before Obama surfaced.. It's already been said by all the major analysts that Hillary has the best shot at beating Obama...

Obama = No military experience, Only 7 years in the senate (NEVER BEEN OVERSEAS), Lack of knowledge, Muslim name... I mean you dont think America is going to see through this smokescreen?

57% of white american democrats support Hillary Clinton, Majority have said will vote for McCain if Obama is nominee...

Obama is NOT a Muslim name to my knowledge... Where did you get that from..?

By the way... NO I don't think "America" as you put it is capable of seeing through any smokescreen...

[topgame85]

His name in Kenyan which may or may not = muslim It is an African name

[JRS21386]

His middle name is Hussein