Obama's Preacher May Cost Him the White House

[BuddyBear]

Why do I think America isn't ready for a black president? Because polls consistently show he and McCain are in virtual dead heat while Hillary would trounce him by double digits. You can discount polls all you want, but I'll take the the public opinion of thousands of voters over 1 anonymous know-it-all on a bulletin board who may or may not have his own agenda.

Would I vote Obama over McCain? Hell yeah, anyone is better than McCain. McCain is everything that I do not want in a President: a racist, opposes gambling and a war-mongerer. Basically, a Bush clone. So in my best interest, I want someone that has the best chance to defeat him come November and that's Hillary.

As for Edwards..... I'm glad he came in distant third. Why any Democrat would want him is beyond me. He was the weakest link in 2004 and was soundly humiliated by Cheney in the VP debates which I believe cost Kerry the presidency.

LOL you've arrived at the conclusion that America is not ready for a black president b/c polls show him tied with McCain at the end of April in a hypothetical presidential campaign. HAHA...that is hilarious bro. You'll need to do better than that.

Additionally, your point about Edwards being the "weak link" is just your intution and is not supported by empirical research. In general, the majority of social science research has shown that the VP candidate makes very little difference in the presidential race. It always comes down to the primary candidates. Very few people base their vote for the president based on who the VP candidate is. The research does not lie....

[BuddyBear]

Polls aren't an exact science, but they have been pretty darn reliable, which is why they still exist.

Actually they are an "exact science" if executed correctly.

A week prior to the Pennsylvania primary, polls showed that Hillary would defeat Obama handidly, and guess what, she did.

A day before the New Hamphshire primary they showed Obama with a double-digit lead

[daggerkobe]

LOL you've arrived at the conclusion that America is not ready for a black president b/c polls show him tied with McCain at the end of April in a hypothetical presidential campaign. HAHA...that is hilarious bro. You'll need to do better than that.

Additionally, your point about Edwards being the "weak link" is just your intution and is not supported by empirical research. In general, the majority of social science research has shown that the VP candidate makes very little difference in the presidential race. It always comes down to the primary candidates. Very few people base their vote for the president based on who the VP candidate is. The research does not lie....

I don't need a poll to tell me that America is racist. I personally witness it everyday with my own eyes, in the news and even in sports, where qualified blacks are regularly passed over for executive positions in favor of whites.

But the poll brings up an interesting point. Why is Obama, who is no less qualified to be president than Hillary, only a statistical tie with McCain while Hillary would win by double digits? Why do the same people who would vote for Hillary won't for Obama? What else could it be than the color of his skin?

Actually, the selection of the running mate matters greatly, which is why it's taken so seriously. When Edwards was chosen, Kerry saw a boost in his poll numbers as the voters overwhelming approved of his selection. Even some Republicans were predicting that Bush's reelection was in trouble because of it.

Kerry was virtually assured of the White House based on his defeat of Bush in virtually every debate. But when Edwards wouldn't stop attacking Cheney's lesbian daughter, the tide turned. That's all it takes, one bad quip and you're done.

[daggerkobe]

Actually they are an "exact science" if executed correctly.

No poll is an exact science, nor is it possible.

A day before the New Hamphshire primary they showed Obama with a double-digit lead

Depends on the poll.

Several polls including the Gallup Poll had Hillary and Obama in a statistical tie. Some even had Hillary winning.

[BuddyBear]

I don't need a poll to tell me that America is racist. I personally witness it everyday with my own eyes, in the news and even in sports, where qualified blacks are regularly passed over for executive positions in favor of whites.

But the poll brings up an interesting point. Why is Obama, who is no less qualified to be president than Hillary, only a statistical tie with McCain while Hillary would win by double digits? Why do the same people who would vote for Hillary won't for Obama? What else could it be than the color of his skin?

Actually, the selection of the running mate matters greatly, which is why it's taken so seriously. When Edwards was chosen, Kerry saw a boost in his poll numbers as the voters overwhelming approved of his selection. Even some Republicans were predicting that Bush's reelection was in trouble because of it.

Kerry was virtually assured of the White House based on his defeat of Bush in virtually every debate. But when Edwards wouldn't stop attacking Cheney's lesbian daughter, the tide turned. That's all it takes, one bad quip and you're done.

If people are voting based on what one VP candidate says about the opposing VP's candidate lesbian daughter than God help this country......

There is always going to be a boost when the VP candidate is announced, but it wears off. Edwards couldn't even help out and get North Carolina. He was largely irrelevant and will be nothng more than an answer on a Jeopardy question 20 years from now for the 2004 election.

Yes, the country here is very racist no argument from me on that point. But I don't think that will be enough to stop Obama. The only thing that can stop Obama is a rigged election which is entire possible since that is typically PG 1 of the Republican play book.

[daggerkobe]

If people are voting based on what one VP candidate says about the opposing VP's candidate lesbian daughter than God help this country......

There is always going to be a boost when the VP candidate is announced, but it wears off. Edwards couldn't even help out and get North Carolina. He was largely irrelevant and will be nothng more than an answer on a Jeopardy question 20 years from now for the 2004 election.

Yes, the country here is very racist no argument from me on that point. But I don't think that will be enough to stop Obama. The only thing that can stop Obama is a rigged election which is entire possible since that is typically PG 1 of the Republican play book.

Why would what American voters do surprise you? Didn't Howard Dean go from frontrunner to laughing stock because of his infamous "yeaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh"?

American voters are idiots. They care more about how many babies and hands a candidate shakes rather than their stance on issues and their character. How else do you explain 8 years of Bush?

Carefully selecting the correct runningmate is important...... Gore selecting Lieberman hurt him more than helped. Many voters were turned off by the fact that he was Jewish. Mondale's selection of Ferraro was disasterous. Even Ross Perot, who was once the frontrunner of the 1992 election, pretty much sank his own campaign by his selection of Vice Admiral James Stockdale as his runningmate.

[BuddyBear]

No poll is an exact science, nor is it possible.

I really disagree with this conclusion. I think you're confusing the general practice of "polling" with "poll results." Polling is a scientific enterprise and if done properly will yield results that are reprsentative of the population under investigation. There will always be concerns about the quality of the results and their generalizability, due to sampling considerations and what not, but that's not to say it's not an "exact science."

Depends on the poll.

Several polls including the Gallup Poll had Hillary and Obama in a statistical tie. Some even had Hillary winning.

I'll have to take your word on this then. My understanding was the polls all showed Obama with a comfortable lead even outside the margin of error estimate as late as the night before the primary. In fact, I read somewhere a commission of academics was formed to investigate why "the polls got it wrong". But it's not uncommon for polls to find conflicting results in close races.

[BuddyBear]

Why would what American voters do surprise you? Didn't Howard Dean go from frontrunner to laughing stock because of his infamous "yeaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh"?

American voters are idiots. They care more about how many babies and hands a candidate shakes rather than their stance on issues and their character. How else do you explain 8 years of Bush?

Carefully selecting the correct runningmate is important...... Gore selecting Lieberman hurt him more than helped. Many voters were turned off by the fact that he was Jewish. Mondale's selection of Ferraro was disasterous. Even Ross Perot, who was once the frontrunner of the 1992 election, pretty much sank his own campaign by his selection of Vice Admiral James Stockdale as his runningmate.

Well I don't disagree with your characterization of the American public as ill-informed. Certainly voting for the worst president not once but twice is sufficient evidence to demonstrate that point. Yes, most Americans are concerned with irrelevant things like you mentioned as opposed to the real issues. No disagreement.

I just disagree with the emphasis on the VP choice. True, it's a major event in the campiagn but unlikely to be a deciding factor. As you note there have been some instances where candidates could have selected better VP choices (i.e. Lieberman) but it's unlikely to tip the balance.

[Dark Horse]

Don't worry about the polls. Intrade (previously Tradesports) has historically been the most accurate.

As to the whole pastor thing. Such a clear case of the media used for propaganda purposes that I can only shrug. Far more shocking is how easily the minds of the American people can be manipulated. It's being run on tv like an infomercial, over and over, people start thinking about it and it becomes 'theirs', as in their opinion... Oh really? You think that is your opinion bouncing back and forth between the inner walls of your skull?

Democracy or brainwashed into submission?

[slacker00]

These issues will be far, far in the rearview mirror when it comes time to vote in November. As an Obama supporter, I'm glad any dirt is coming out now, so he has a chance to react and build character while defending himself. Mud slinging will happen, it's how the candidate reacts that will influence voters. I hope Obama can find how to navigate these rough waters, because it's only going to get worse. The gloves will come off in the months to come. So far, it's been a pillowfight, at best.