Stock Market 04_21_08

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  • RageWizard
    SBR MVP
    • 09-01-06
    • 3008

    #1
    Stock Market 04_21_08
    Alright people I was on vacation last weekend so I haven't done this in a couple of weeks. I have something like 13 charts to throw up today and it will show where I made a big mistake last week with not locking in profits or preventing losses in the review of positions that I have.

    As usual I always start off looking at the IWM daily chart which is shown below. Over the last three weeks or so the IWM has moved across the 50 day moving average and everytime it moved below the 50 day the index found support and moved higher. It now finds itself at a level of resistance with its yearly high and the stochastics are moving rapidly into the overbought territory while volume has been fairly stable.
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  • RageWizard
    SBR MVP
    • 09-01-06
    • 3008

    #2
    The chart below is the IWM weekly chart for the past 6 months. I am putting up all the weekly charts this week because they all just about show the same trend. The IWM weekly shows the stochastics are getting into the overbought territory. I also put up the level of resistance like in the daily chart to show that if the IWM breaks through, it will have about a $2.00 space before it meets additional resistance at the 200 day moving average.
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    • RageWizard
      SBR MVP
      • 09-01-06
      • 3008

      #3
      The S&P daily shows that it is also at a level of resistance from the yearly highs. The stochastics are again rapidly moving into the overbought territory and the volume is staying steady.
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      • RageWizard
        SBR MVP
        • 09-01-06
        • 3008

        #4
        Below is the S&P weekly chart. It shows basically the same thing as the IWM chart with the index at a level of resistance and the stocahstics moving into the overbought territory, even though it isn't there yet.
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        • RageWizard
          SBR MVP
          • 09-01-06
          • 3008

          #5
          The daily chart of the financials (XLF) shows the same thing as the small and midcap stocks (IWM) and the S&P 500, the ETF is up at a level of resistance with the stochastics up at the overbought territory and the volume is staying fairly steady.
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          • RageWizard
            SBR MVP
            • 09-01-06
            • 3008

            #6
            The weekly of the financials shows some interesting things with the ETF bumping up against the resistance of the downward trend line (Red) and the consolidation for the last 4 weeks (Green). The stochastics are moving into overbought territory but it is not there yet and volume again is staying steady for the last 4 weeks of consolidation trend.
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            • RageWizard
              SBR MVP
              • 09-01-06
              • 3008

              #7
              A look at the VIX daily index shows that it hasn't been this low for over 3 months.
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              • RageWizard
                SBR MVP
                • 09-01-06
                • 3008

                #8
                The last time the VIX was this low was back before Christmas when the market started to come off the all time highs.
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                • RageWizard
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-01-06
                  • 3008

                  #9
                  So the market looks again like it is getting overbought and a pull back is in the future cards unless the IWM, S&P, and XLF can move above their resistance levels with increased volume to support some sustained upward movement.

                  Enough of that shit, I promised a review of my mistakes over the last two weeks and I know that when your down watch out for the boot. Below is the daily chart of the diamonds (DIA). The verticle red line shows the day I started to short with 100 shares @$126.31 with a stop loss at $128.31. The circles show where it bottomed out and the stochastics showed the oversold signal. At this point I still thought that the dow was going to continue down, so I did nothing. At the point where the DIA moved down almost $2.00, even if I thought that it was going to continue downward, the correct move is to always guard against a loss. So I should have moved my stop loss to just under where I sold it short to ensure that I did not lose any money on the trade. Adjusting for the vig I could have placed a stop at $126.00 and still would have walked away with a $17.00 profit. I know $17.00 ain't shit, but now the diamonds moved up and I got stopped out at $128.31. This represents an 1.6% loss which isn't much but a look in actual dollars shows that I could of had a $17.00 profit but settled for a $214.00 loss with the vig attached. That is a $231.00 swing all because I didn't adjust my stop loss. A move that takes all of 30 seconds to do.
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                  • RageWizard
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-01-06
                    • 3008

                    #10
                    Well fuck it, what does the DIA show on the weekly chart and should I go back in and short it again? The weekly chart is just like the other weekly charts that I have been showing so the answer is yes, but not right of the opening today.
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                    • RageWizard
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-01-06
                      • 3008

                      #11
                      A look at another one of the shorts that I had on is the financial ETF (XLF). The XLF daily chart (actually shown above) shows where I shorted the ETF @ $26.50 and placed my stop at $27.00. Again just like in the diamonds, the ETF moved down and the stochastics where showing an oversold condition, but I didn't do anything about it. This eventually took off and I got stopped out at $27.00 and endured a loss of 1.9% when I could have easily prevented this.
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                      • RageWizard
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-01-06
                        • 3008

                        #12
                        The next example is the materials sector (XLB) this one had a nice downward movement and again I didn't adjust the stop and lost out. This one was shorted at $43.59 and got stopped out at $44.50, a 2.0% loss.
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                        • RageWizard
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-01-06
                          • 3008

                          #13
                          A look at the XLB weekly chart also shows a ETF that is rubbing up on some resistance and is overbought. Unlike the other however the volume has been decreasing the last month or so. I will probably go back an dshort this one again sometime this week.
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                          • RageWizard
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-01-06
                            • 3008

                            #14
                            Hey I didn't just screw up the short plays, I also did a number on my one long play on the tech sector (XLK). I was a buyer at $23.42 with a stop at $22.75. The chart below shows where the ETF sold off and the stochastics once again showed that it was oversold. The black line shows where I wussed out and sold at $22.95 because I thought that the market was going to tank. I didn't have a profit in this one to begin with but I sold before the stop mark of $22.75 was reached. I don't know what the hell I was smoking for this trade, I did just about everthing wrong on this one.
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                            • RageWizard
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-01-06
                              • 3008

                              #15
                              As it stands now with the XLK, I'm ready to short it. Below is the weekly chart of the ETF and again it shows just like the other weekly charts that it is overbought and coming up against resistance. The volume is also on the decline as it has moved up.
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                              • RageWizard
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-01-06
                                • 3008

                                #16
                                Here is another one that I screwed up on but haven't been stopped out yet on. XLY or consumer sentiment, was shorted at $32.00 and is now sitting at $32.07. A look at the chart below indicated that I let some profit go and I am now at risk of losing some money because I was unable or unwilling to act and reset my stop loss.
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                                • RageWizard
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-01-06
                                  • 3008

                                  #17
                                  A look at the weekly chart of XLY shows the same trend as all the other weekly charts as well.
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                                  • RageWizard
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-01-06
                                    • 3008

                                    #18
                                    So what the hell am I going to do? I'm going to short them all again thats what. I know the freakin Fed is going to spout off on Tuesday, but I don't think he has the balls to lower the interest rates now that inflation is staring him squarely in the face in an election year. I'm betting that the fed doesn't do shit so I'm staying short on the XLY( still have position from two weeke ago), DIA,XLF,XLB,and XLK. The charts also show that these are all better short canidates than two weeks ago when I shorted them the first time. You can rest assured that I will reset my stops this time tough.
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                                    • RageWizard
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-01-06
                                      • 3008

                                      #19
                                      O.K. looks like the market is going to end up flat for the day. I think that they will try to move the S&P up to 1400 before it all falls apart. I'm still going to come in and short the market with the ETFs that I have posted above. Hopefully the market gets a little pop tomorrow so that the hype machine can start on wall street.
                                      It is hard to believe that the earnings reports for all the financials sucked real hard and yet the stocks as a whole rose on this information. Add in that the oil is going to $120 bucks a barrel and the lowest value for the dollar since before I was born, and you have the ingredients for some crappy times ahead in the economy.
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                                      • mathdotcom
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-24-08
                                        • 11689

                                        #20
                                        Looks like you have a fancy guessing game going on here.

                                        Why would the Fed care about inflation more in an election year?
                                        Comment
                                        • RageWizard
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-01-06
                                          • 3008

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by mathdotcom
                                          Looks like you have a fancy guessing game going on here.

                                          Why would the Fed care about inflation more in an election year?
                                          The fed is a tool of the administration and usually in an election year if inflation is a worry, then the fed would be a key man to help stop inflation. This administration however has not shown any regard to anybody except their friends in big business.

                                          So on a down day like today I'm still in XLY with a short started at $32.00 it is now around $31.50 so I am going to adjust the stop so that I don't lose money tomorrow when the stocks rebound, maybe. The adjusted stop will now be $31.80. This is just enough to cover the vig and to ensure that I don't lose money. I am still looking for an entry point that I am comfortable with to short on DIA,XLF,XLB, and XLK. Today is pretty good so far but I was thinking that the market would run up a little bit more before crashing down. The last 10 minutes today will tell a shit load about the market sentiment. If there is a sell off then more down time tomorrow will be expected, if it rallys then the market will have a bounce or short covering rally tomorrow.
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                                          • jjgold
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 07-20-05
                                            • 388179

                                            #22
                                            Does anyone actually trade stocks anymore?
                                            Comment
                                            • mathdotcom
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 03-24-08
                                              • 11689

                                              #23
                                              Ragey,

                                              it takes a long time for people to notice inflation. You think they'll feel it before the election? When the Fed lowers its rate, it can take at least 9 months for its 'effects to be felt'.

                                              Coach, noone in their basement should be speculating. Leave that to the guys that have inside information and bigger computers.
                                              Comment
                                              • RageWizard
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-01-06
                                                • 3008

                                                #24
                                                I'm telling you guys my methods work, I post this shit because my wife says I should do it because so many people don't know shit about the market, and if you watch a business channel they just hype everything. Now I hurt myself last week with some rookie mistakes and I posted those as well, but if you look at what I was doing for the last month or so with my picks, most have been money makers, and the ones that weren't, I had tight stops on, even last week's stupidity had tight stops and the losses weren't bad.

                                                Not only am I posting the picks, but I am also giving the method to do it with. I know I haven't gone over the way to step into a stock yet but then again I don't think I picked any stocks to go long in either. After this pull back, I will hunt down a stock to go long in for a month or so and show the method for entering a stock. For now the short seller way is the way to go.

                                                I also know that this is a sports gambling forum but I consider the Stock Market another sports gambling venue. It is really no different except that you can find book makers on shore and on-line that have the government O.K., and the vig is only $7.00 no matter how much you bet. Add in the fact that you get to decide when the game starts and for the most part (unless you had Bear Sterns) when the game has ended.

                                                I'm going to keep posting my picks aleast until the SBR bash, so it should be easy to compute my record by then. Hold off any judgements until then and if at the end of the next couple of months, I do well, then maybe people will start to take an interest in learning. Like I said, I do this for the old lady because she has a bigger heart than me. If it were up to me, I would just let everybody who has a job and a 401K stay there and lose money, which by the way is what is happening to all the people with a 401K from their company. There may be a few companies that have a profit in their retirement savings plans for the year, but they are few and far between.
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                                                • mathdotcom
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 03-24-08
                                                  • 11689

                                                  #25
                                                  I don't think many people here follow what you're talking about in your posts. Looks to me like you are always in a tough spot deciding which way a 'line' is going to move, and get it right about half the time.
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                                                  • compaqDikk
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 10-08-05
                                                    • 5699

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by jjgold
                                                    Does anyone actually trade stocks anymore?
                                                    we quit trading as we were fed up with paying 20% capitol gains taxes
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                                                    • purecarnagge
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-05-07
                                                      • 4843

                                                      #27
                                                      dude in laymans terms.

                                                      What are you up last 30 days?

                                                      what are you up the last 3 months?

                                                      what are you up the last 6 months?

                                                      what are you up the last year?

                                                      What are you up the last 3?

                                                      What are you up the last 5?



                                                      Thats all I want to know. Rough percentages work as well...
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                                                      • RageWizard
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-01-06
                                                        • 3008

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by purecarnagge
                                                        dude in laymans terms.

                                                        What are you up last 30 days?

                                                        what are you up the last 3 months?

                                                        what are you up the last 6 months?

                                                        what are you up the last year?

                                                        What are you up the last 3?

                                                        What are you up the last 5?



                                                        Thats all I want to know. Rough percentages work as well...
                                                        The last 30 days I'm up about 1% from my total portfolio.

                                                        Since the start of the year I'm up 10% total.

                                                        The last 6 months is again about 10% total.

                                                        As for year totals they average between 10% and 20% depending on the year. This will be a good year believe it or not so I hope to get to the 20% mark. I've already got 10% from the first pull back in January and I believe another big pull back is in the cards soon. That is when the majority of the money is made for the year, and it usually only happens once or twice a year. This year has already had a big pull back and there are going to be many chances this year so I think that I can squeeze a 20% gain for the year.
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                                                        • RageWizard
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-01-06
                                                          • 3008

                                                          #29
                                                          O.K. just as thought yesterday the market is having a 100 point rally so far today. A closer look at the etf XLB shows that the materials sector is having trouble today while the rest of the market is going up. This is called "relative weakness" and is a bearish sign for a particular stock or etf showing this sign. XLB started down today then rallied but now is overbought for the time being and this is where I will step in and short 100 shares @ $43.70, and place a stop loss right above the 200 day moving average at $44.20.
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                                                          • RageWizard
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-01-06
                                                            • 3008

                                                            #30
                                                            The consumer discretionary sector spider XLY is having a rally today and has passed my stop of $31.80. So this trade is closed out with a $6.00 profit after the vig. Nothing really, but I will moswt likely come back in later today or tommorrow and short again. Anyways at least I didn't lose any money which is what I concentrate on the most.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mathdotcom
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 03-24-08
                                                              • 11689

                                                              #31
                                                              So with all this work in the past 6 months, you've made 10%. You would probably make more throwing it into some GIC for 5% and working at Starbucks.
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                                                              • RageWizard
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 09-01-06
                                                                • 3008

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by mathdotcom
                                                                So with all this work in the past 6 months, you've made 10%. You would probably make more throwing it into some GIC for 5% and working at Starbucks.
                                                                I really don't work at it long, maybe an hour a day tops. The most work that I do is getting the charts ready for viewing here every Monday. I have the potential to make more but I am conservative in my investing by not investing all of my money at one time. Actually I either buy 100 shares or $10,000 at a time more or less. Later today or sometime in the future, I will short the DIA at around $120-plus. If I were buying the amount would come to over ten dimes but it is close enough for me to bend the rules. I have the ablility to have about 20 of these positions if I wanted to, and the additional ability to have about 10 more on margin if I was crazy enough to do that, so I'm happy with the 10 percent over the last 6 months. It represents a lot of money for me.
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                                                                • RageWizard
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 09-01-06
                                                                  • 3008

                                                                  #33
                                                                  O.K. stocks are finally rallying this week like I thought they would, now later today I will come in and short some etfs when the time is right.

                                                                  The short play on XLB is going well and even today with the market rallying up 100 this etf is down. I am moving my stop down so I don't lose any money and guarentee a profit or non-loss the new stop will be $43.50, just enough to cover the vig.
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                                                                  • RageWizard
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 09-01-06
                                                                    • 3008

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Time to apply some of the other short plays before the close of the bell today. The way it looks the later the short play comes in the better. I need to leave so I'm putting them in now.

                                                                    Short the DIA @ $128.82 for 100 shares, stop loss just above the 200 day moving level at $131.00

                                                                    Short XLF @ $26.60 for 100 shares, stop loss set at $27.50.

                                                                    Both of these ETF's are oversold right now on the one day 5 minute chart so I expect the price to rise going into the close.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • purecarnagge
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-05-07
                                                                      • 4843

                                                                      #35
                                                                      shit if someone guarenteed me 12% Rate of return I'd give them 15k right now.
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