Value doesn't mean sh!t as long as you keep winning

**VegasInsider** · 02-21-11, 02:39 PM

In theory, this sounds exactly right! Unfortunately, we call can't continue to win

**Bill Dozer** · 02-21-11, 02:39 PM

There is no vig unless you lose.

**Nicky Santoro** · 02-21-11, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by BettingGeek

Value bet vs. winning bet
You know what to take

NOT TRUE at all.. without value, your winning bets will never last. you cannot consistently make money gambling UNLESS you are betting value.

Billy boy, that is not true.

you are always paying vig win or lose.

if you lay -110, you risk 110 to win 100..

however, if you laid -102 to win 100.. it means you risk 110 to win 108.. so you get 8$ more when you win.

and if you only want to win 100$, then you risk 102$ only instead of 110$. so if you lose, you lose 102$.. so win or lose, you cost yourself money (8$) for not betting value.. not just when you lose.

**BettingWizard** · 02-21-11, 03:38 PM

you're implying that value = losing bet

hey guys, the casino has no value over me, I won $100 at blackjack!

**pavyracer** · 02-21-11, 03:40 PM

You can find value in losing bets. Lets say you average $500 per bet in your bets. And one day you decided to start betting $100 per game. And you went 0-10. Some say you lost $1000. But I say you saved $4000.

**AMBlai01** · 02-21-11, 04:44 PM

there must be 1290129109210 threads that started exactly like this around here.

**the_situation** · 02-21-11, 04:45 PM

If you actually think this I doubt your up in the long run. Of course I would never back a "value play" unless I think it has a good shot at hitting. The same way I won't back a play that should hit if it is way overpriced.

**big0mar** · 02-21-11, 04:49 PM

By definition, a value bet is a winning bet more often than not.

**Masu485** · 02-21-11, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by VegasInsider

In theory, this sounds exactly right! Unfortunately, we call can't continue to win

I was thinking the exact same thing.

What he's saying is so right, but somehow it's so so wrong.

**Dirty Sanchez** · 02-21-11, 04:51 PM

The most overused word in gambling: Value

No value if you get your ass handed to you

**Whippit** · 02-21-11, 04:52 PM

op is dead accurate

**RollPlayer** · 02-21-11, 05:05 PM

If I give you 5-1 odds that a coin flip will come up heads. If you decide to bet tails and it hits then good for you. But to ignore the value on the 5-1 odds is just stupid. Value is everything in gambling

**Rio DiNero** · 02-21-11, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by RollPlayer

If I give you 5-1 odds that a coin flip will come up heads. If you decide to bet tails and it hits then good for you. But to ignore the value on the 5-1 odds is just stupid. Value is everything in gambling

And if this makes no sense to you; stop gambling now.

**d2bets** · 02-21-11, 05:26 PM

There are 55 red balls and 45 black balls in a bucket. You can bet -110 on either red or black to be picked. If you bet black you might win, but you made a bad bet. Listening to some folks here they would congratulate picking black as a good play if it ends up a winner. You might win it 1 time or out of 5 or 20 times, but eventually you will lose.

**tofuman** · 02-21-11, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by BettingGeek

Value bet vs. winning bet
You know what to take

except you won't keep winning, so it does mean shit.
long term you will always hit slumps, like 4-7 days in a row losing.

**FourLengthsClear** · 02-21-11, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by BettingGeek

Value bet vs. winning bet
You know what to take

If you continually bet without value (-EV) you will lose in the long run.
The end.

**LT Profits** · 02-21-11, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by BettingGeek

Value bet vs. winning bet
You know what to take

Yes I do....the VALUE bet.

I'd rather lose with a +200 that should be +150 than win with a +200 that should be +300 because I know I would win in the long run if I keep playing the first one.

**nyed1010** · 02-22-11, 12:21 AM

the majority of value bets go like this:
1) Bettor #1: hey guys, A LOT of value in X
Bettor #2: ya looks like good value, will put a unit on it.
Result: Value play X gets blown out by 25 points.
Bettor #1: had good value though
Bettor #2: f*uck you, can't believe I listened to your square ass and wasted a unit on these f*ucks

**MMAdisciple** · 02-22-11, 12:33 AM

Originally posted by nyed1010

the majority of value bets go like this:
1) Bettor #1: hey guys, A LOT of value in X
Bettor #2: ya looks like good value, will put a unit on it.
Result: Value play X gets blown out by 25 points.
Bettor #1: had good value though
Bettor #2: f*uck you, can't believe I listened to your square ass and wasted a unit on these f*ucks

A stricter approach to value is needed then.

**icancount2one** · 02-22-11, 12:42 AM

OP is psychic obv.

**TPowell** · 02-22-11, 01:20 AM

unless you ***** are calculating the lines and spreads of EVERY game your betting, please just stop this nonsense.

VALUE= MADE UP IN YOUR OWN POWER RATINGS/MODEL/WHATEVER.

Some times your right, others your wrong. All that matters is how your getting it done

**frostno98** · 02-22-11, 01:51 AM

The hardest part is not winning. I'd say the hardest part is burying yourself after a bad beat, by betting more than you usually do on a game you don't even really like to stop steaming

**Albert Pujols** · 02-22-11, 02:33 AM

If it doesn't have value, it's not a winning bet. Period. Doesn't matter if it's a "winner." Brock Landers would agree with you, though.

**JOHON8** · 02-22-11, 02:38 AM

Not a very thoughtful thread.

Value is everything in the long run, you'd know this if you are making money gambling.

**Antwon1825** · 02-22-11, 02:42 AM

It's a combo of both, just depends what you're feeling!

**BettingGeek** · 02-22-11, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yes I do....the VALUE bet.

I'd rather lose with a +200 that should be +150 than win with a +200 that should be +300 because I know I would win in the long run if I keep playing the first one.

I followed your posts to understand about the value and I agree with ya on most things.
The only problem is if people keeps betting on dogs value bet such as Hawks +255 for NBA today
Case 1: they will drain their bankroll after losing couple games like that and afraid of taking any "dogs value"
Case 2: they gone broke and don't have chance to bet on another "dogs value" and to see their value bets strategy mature

You know what I'm saying pal

**BettingGeek** · 02-22-11, 03:00 AM

real story:
a guy bet on a dog +1000 which shoulda been only +700
he only has $800 on his bank roll
First 8 bets $100 each, lose. Gone broke.
Dog +1000 hits twice in a row.

after that

Dogs value bet is a good strategy, only if you have balls and nerve of steel to go with it.

**Whippit** · 02-22-11, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by BettingGeek

real story:
a guy bet on a dog +1000 which shoulda been only +700
he only has $800 on his bank roll
First 8 bets $100 each, lose. Gone broke.
Dog +1000 hits twice in a row.

after that

Dogs value bet is a good strategy, only if you have balls and nerve of steel to go with it.

new thread title: "Value doesn't mean shit as long as you're an effin moran"

**Whippit** · 02-22-11, 03:09 AM

I thought you musta been either Doyle Lonnegan or Anthony Spilotro before you poasted that story

**kmarinouofm** · 02-22-11, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by BettingGeek

Value bet vs. winning bet
You know what to take

then again you also think kobe is done.. soo... how many crazy pills did you take today ??

Originally posted by JOHON8

Not a very thoughtful thread.

Value is everything in the long run, you'd know this if you are making money gambling.

**Intuitive_Edge** · 02-22-11, 03:12 AM

Originally posted by Whippit

new thread title: "Value doesn't mean shit as long as you're an effin moran"

**Mikail** · 02-22-11, 03:14 AM

You have to have a balance of value and winning. Many are so busy finding value they lose sight of the most important aspect of gambling, picking the winning side. I understand betting bad lines is inefficient and will diminish your bankroll long term but if your picking the right side you can make money. I'm telling you right now. I don't line shop. I spend most of my time capping. If a line isn't to my liking then yes i'll lay off but if you won't bet a play because it's -230 and it wins your being a fool.

**pico** · 02-22-11, 03:35 AM

yep, also for 100 % losers

**Albert Pujols** · 02-22-11, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by Mikail

You have to have a balance of value and winning. Many are so busy finding value they lose sight of the most important aspect of gambling, picking the winning side. I understand betting bad lines is inefficient and will diminish your bankroll long term but if your picking the right side you can make money. I'm telling you right now. I don't line shop. I spend most of my time capping. If a line isn't to my liking then yes i'll lay of but if you won't bet a play because it's -230 and it wins your being a fool.

Well hell, just bet the Phillies every day this year. Doesn't matter if they are -250. The price doesn't matter as long as you pick the winner.