Baseball is just a guessing game

[djeffectz]

I dont know how many of you guys look at stats when betting baseball, but ace pitchers are losing like crazy for the pass week, good for you if you went with the dogs, I try and look at the stats as much as possible, but it doesnt seem to work...... u have a 50/50 chance of winning and losing but Im on the losing side of 70% of the time, is anyone here having badluck than me?

[OLGC_Slayer]

Thats why I bet half units in April

[AgainstAllOdds]

Its tough in the first month because alot of pitchers didnt get enough reps in spring training and are still trying to find the "right stuff" I always play baseball with caution in april...other might tell you diffrent.

[TheLock]

Thats why I bet half units in April

This.

[onlooker]

I wait to the end of April, beginning of May to start betting Baseball.

[OLGC_Slayer]

I wait to the end of April, beginning of May to start betting Baseball.

This is what I would do if I weren't such an action junkie

[dannyt76]

I like to bet small for the action in April, but it's hard to get a good read on the teams this early in the season. Next month should be better.

[SBR Lou]

Why exactly do people wait to begin betting a sport anyway?

Or are those the people who get "feels" based on how each team is performing and then feel more comfortable betting ATS?

[BigOrangeTitans]

I hammer april baseball.
Why?
If you watch spring training and compile a list of "good" spring pitchers and "bad" spring bitchers, you can easily see who to fade and follow.
Furthermore, anytime you get a dog at +150 who has won more than they lost in the last few games, you take all of those. For instance today, I went 4-6. Bad day right? Nope, +.04 units on a bad day.

Never bet ML faves in April. ANd if you do, bet the runline.

[DukeJohn]

I dont know how many of you guys look at stats when betting baseball, but ace pitchers are losing like crazy for the pass week, good for you if you went with the dogs, I try and look at the stats as much as possible, but it doesnt seem to work...... u have a 50/50 chance of winning and losing but Im on the losing side of 70% of the time, is anyone here having badluck than me?

Wow, if ya lose 70% of the time, just fade your picks. You'd be extremely successful.

[treece]

every sport is a guessing game.

[austintx05]

which is why betting on aces is one of the worst strategies in baseball.

Pick 50% betting dogs and you are very happy

[LT Profits]

Or in my case 95% dogs and NEVER a favorite of -130 or more.

And that is year round, not just April.

[LT Profits]

I should add I never bet run lines either, at least not seriously. I will on occasion drop half a unit on an underdog -1.5 on the Alt Run Line.

[Richkas]

I dont know how many of you guys look at stats when betting baseball, but ace pitchers are losing like crazy for the pass week, good for you if you went with the dogs, I try and look at the stats as much as possible, but it doesnt seem to work...... u have a 50/50 chance of winning and losing but Im on the losing side of 70% of the time, is anyone here having badluck than me?

Its the easiest sport to beat.

[jjgold]

All sports are for suckers

It is a pure guess

Parity rules in all sports now

take the dogs

[The HG]

NEVER a favorite of -130 or more.

I guess you're going to miss out on Cleveland -140 today. Are you seriously not going to bet Cleveland -140?

[pat venditto]

dont ever bet because of the odds. bet who is gonna win. go back to the future and get that sports almanac so u wont be barreled in like jj mario dolbin sports.

[LT Profits]

TheHG,

Honestly, if I see a game with a favorite of -130 or more, I just look for a reason to play the dog. If I don't find one, I just move on to the net game. I don't even want to be tempted by looking for a reason to play the favorite. Trust me, that saves money in the long run.

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pat venditto,

It seems to me you have it backwards, you should bet ONLY because of the odds, i.e., you should always look for value. If you see a team with a 60% probabilty of winning, you would always bet that team using your approach. I would play the underdog if I could get +155 or miore since the dog should win 40% of the time for a break-even point of +150.

[jjgold]

Look at most of the teams in bases

All 4-6

6-5

6-6

ect

case closed

[LT Profits]

The best way to put it is the best team will be around 100-62 and the worst team will be around 62-100. At those records, the break-even point is +/-161, so all other things being equal, consistently laying more than that is dangerous and consistent betting dogs above that price is usually prudent.

[durito]

Cleveland closed at -169, I'd say -140 was an excellent bet.

[jjgold]

Those days are over with 100+ game wins, 95 and you will be great

[twtb19]

The best way to put it is the best team will be around 100-62 and the worst team will be around 62-100. At those records, the break-even point is +/-161, so all other things being equal, consistently laying more than that is dangerous and consistent betting dogs above that price is usually prudent.

I think this is very well put, and shows exactly why heavy favs are dangerous.