baseball betting 101 for IMG

[bigboydan]

since this will be IMG's first year betting bases, i think we need to teach him what he should be looking for when finding value in games.

i'm sure he probly already knows about checking out the trends, and hot/cold teams. what else should he be looking for guys when betting on this sport ?

[picantel]

bet the tigers the first 14 games and then against them the last xx games?

[presley177]

weather..especially in over/under games. Know the umpires..what they like to call..and how the pitcher likes to pitch. Most importantly know the players. read fantasy news, read stats, read newspaper articles. The more you know the players you're betting on the more you'll win.

[JayEgdarWho]

My $ .02. With the disclaimer that it's been a while . . this is what used to work fairly well for me.

totals: get a state-of-the-art table of the expected run value of various events (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, DP, etc.) Add 'em up and chart how many runs each team SHOULD have scored in every game. That and the starting pitching chart really help in spotting totals value.

money lines: focus on starting pitching, and assume the rest balances out between the teams. Keep a "Racing Form" for all starting pitchers, and be sure to include past performance columns for pitch count, the other teams' line score, and the other teams expected run value from their combination of hits against him. If you can accurately predict superb or dreadful starts, you're swimming downstream.

run lines: avoid

[dave11486]

totals: get a state-of-the-art table of the expected run value of various events (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, DP, etc.) Add 'em up and chart how many runs each team SHOULD have scored in every game. That and the starting pitching chart really help in spotting totals value.

Where can you get a table that gives you these stats?

[JayEgdarWho]

(This will show you how long it's been since I did this)

The pioneer in this field was Pete Palmer's book The Hidden Game of Baseball. I'm sure there's been more done in this area since.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/customer-reviews/038518283X/ref=cm_cr_dp_pt/002-8909958-4118403?%5Fencoding=UTF8&n=283155&s=books

[Willie Bee]

Know who may or may not be available from the pen on a given night. So track ALL pitchers, not just the starters.

Presely mentioned weather (same as ponies) and umpires (tight zones with a nibbling pitcher on the mound, for example).

I don't use the fantasy reports too much because some of them can be more knee-jerk than 'straight up' news. At the least, confirm any rumor/notion you hear from a fantasy beat writer.

Bet against Peter Gammons' trade rumors and you'll be right 95% of the time

[JayEgdarWho]

Know who may or may not be available from the pen on a given night. So track ALL pitchers, not just the starters.

Agreed, especially as to the big stud closer. It used to be important to know which managers refused to use the big horse 2 days running, and which didn't hesitate.

(Love the shot at Gammo, Willie. And I'm here to tell you that some things have not changed AT ALL in 20 years.)

[mad]

Go to bases section of forum, follow those in the know!

[Illusion]

Go to bases section of forum, follow those in the know!

Very solid advice.