NCAA Championship Game Write Up Contest Picks thread:

[mofome]

Rules:


-Correctly picking the side will be 5 points
-Correctly picking the over/under will be 5 points
-The write up will be graded on a scale of 10 points with regard to how accurate your projection comes out as well as who provides the most relevant information.
-Pick the total score. this will break a tie should there be one.

The write up portion will be graded by a handicapping writer/editor who's name will remain anonymous, but it wont be me.

the prize is an Ipod nano.

there is no entry free, this is just about trying to get some good talks going and seeing who can deliver with one big game on the line.


Memphis -2
Kansas +2

Total: 146



good luck to anyone that provides us with some good info.

[mofome]

bot, where is your pick? you may be unopposed.

[BigOrangeTitans]

bot, where is your pick? you may be unopposed.

Copying and pasting some trends, Mo.
Plus, I'm still bangin out correct spelling

[donjuan]

Memphis is 25-0 with an average margin of victory of 23 when playing on Mondays following a full moon when the President of Kyrgyzstan has a last name starting with B. Kansas is 0-4 against CUSA teams when Brandon Rush and Sasha Kaun "Eiffel Tower" a girl 3 nights before the game. Also I met John Calipari once and he was, like, totally this really nice guy who shook my hand and everything. He told me the key to the game was making sure the girl Kaun and Rush "Eiffel Tower" weighs over 183 pounds since they will be tired on game day. Since the game is in Texas, this augurs well for Memphis. All of this leads me to my prediction of Memphis by 15 and under 146. Ship the Nano.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Memphis to win the National Title

Memphis (RPI RD, Pomeroy ND) Kansas (RPI Th, Pomeroy ST)

Here we are, at the end of the season, and it seems every question has been answered; with one exception. Who is the best in all the land? Who will claim the nets in 2008? These two teams have separated themselves from the pack in equally impressive fashion. Memphis misses some late free throws to allow lowly Mississippi State back in the game in the second round. They prevail in the end despite shooting 46.9% from the line and begin hear a lot of grief. How do they respond? 18, 18, and 15. No, those are not missed free throws. That is the margin of victory in the last 3 games, most recently a destruction of UCLA. And Kansas has been no slouch recently either. They have won 4 of the last 5 games by a margin of 15 points or more. Before ripping a heavily favored North Carolina team to shreds, they had a very big scare against a Cinderella 10 seed in Davidson. Although the Jayhawks were favored by 10 in this elite eight match up, we quickly saw how much trouble the Jawhawks were in. With a narrow two point lead they advanced, eventually leaving us here. This is where we start to break down this Goliath match-up.

KANSAS 36-3 Big 12 Reg. season and postseason champions

KU has a very similar style to Memphis. They use their athleticism to get out and score (75+ ppg over the last 5 games). Defensively, they are no slouch either, holding opponents to 61.3 PPG and a 37.9% FG percentage on the year. This team is very balanced with Rush, Collins, and Chalmers at guard along with Kaun/Arthur/Jackson in the post.

To break this match-up down I like to look at the teams losses. KU lost to an Oklahoma State and Texas team this year that has one thing in common... Superior guards. Texas has a tandem of Abrams and Augestin, while OK st has Byron Eaton. KU shot a better percentage than the opposition in both of the match-ups and only 3 more turnovers than OK st in that match-up, and 1 more Turnover in the Texas game.

So why did they lose? One common factor here. Kansas guards got in to foul trouble early and often due to opposing penetration from Augestin and Eaton. Against Texas, Chalmers and Rush had 4 fouls each. The team had 24 personal fouls while UT had 15. Against Ok St., Chalmers had 4 personals and Arther fouled out. Again, KU had 24 personal fouls. Eaton shot 18 free throws in this game.

As for Memphis (38-1 Conf USA champions, regular season and postseason), they average 83.8 PPG over the last five games while giving 61.6 PPG on 38.7% shooting on the year.
They have been spectacular ever since the Miss. St debacle at the line. Why, you ask? 81.5.

The Achilles heel of this team all year was Free throw shooting. Over the last 3 games they have shot 81.5% from the line, winning these three match-up's by at least 15 ppg. The only loss of the year was a 4 point loss to a very hot Tennessee (RPI ND) at home in a huge in-state rivalry. They went 8-17 from the line that game.

With the free throws dropping, this team is almost unbeatable. Memphis is led by freshman phenom Derrick Rose who was 24-27 from the line in the last 3 games and has scored over 20 in those 3 games as well. Opposite Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts has averaged 25 points or better in the last 3 games and has looked unbelievable.

The 6-7 guard from Detroit has created a lot of match-up problems with teams and the athletic Rose didn't help the opposing defense. In the last 3 games at least one opposing guard has fouled out of the game, with at least one other having 4 fouls.

On paper, we have a very even match-up and the line reflects that. I think that Memphis is just too much offensively for Kansas to guard. Foul trouble in their backcourt accounted for 2 of this teams 3 losses. I think Memphis attacks to well and will be going to the line a lot. As shown in the last 3 games, this was not a good idea...

MEMPHIS -2

As for the team totals. I see KU really trying to sit back in a zone and try to avoid penetration. On offense, I see them using a methodical attack to try and wear down the defense. They will have their talented frontcourt involved early and often to try to slow the pace of Rose. Tennessee did this and was very successful. They only scored 128 total points, when the total was O/U 156 and many had projected a shootout due to the athleticism and tempo of both teams. Both of which are displayed here as well...

Also, trend data shows a clear advantage, as the UNDER has hit 11 out of 17 times between these teams when they face an opposition that averages 77+ points a game.

Official plays:
Memphis -2
Under 146
Final score: Memphis Tigers 74 Kansas Jayhawks 69
Total: 143 points

[BigOrangeTitans]

bot, where is your pick? you may be unopposed.

I did a short one for ya Mo, but DonJuan has me beat... Damnit!

[pico]

Kansas will be leading before the HT, then memphis will come back and take the lead. But couple of missed FTs plus a critical strategy error from memphis by not fouling at the end of the regulation time let Mario Chalmers hit a 3-pointer to tie the game at the end of regulation. Kansas will win by 7 points in OT.

So my picks:

Kansas +2
Under 146
final score jays 75-68
total 143

[mofome]

Bring it gents. nice stuff so far.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Here's my writeup.
Memphis wins 79-72
Over 146.

VEGAS KNOWS who wins the game. MEMPHIS IS FAVORED so they WIN. IF YOU bet against VEGAS you are dumb. DUH who makes the lines. KANSAS is a STATE and MEMPHIS is a city. HOW could a state beat a CITY. VEGAS is a city and beats STATES all the time. a TIGER would eat a HAWK anyday, don't your ****ers watch DISCOVER CHANNEL. I will WIN this GAME because I am BETOR then .99% of ALL CAPPERS

[diogee]

Here's my writeup.
Memphis wins 79-72
Over 143.

VEGAS KNOWS who wins the game. MEMPHIS IS FAVORED so they WIN. IF YOU bet against VEGAS you are dumb. DUH who makes the lines. KANSAS is a STATE and MEMPHIS is a city. HOW could a state beat a CITY. VEGAS is a city and beats STATES all the time. a TIGER would eat a HAWK anyday, don't your ****ers watch DISCOVER CHANNEL. I will WIN this GAME because I am BETOR then .99% of ALL CAPPERS

WOW...very nice. Absolutely love the write-up.
Absolute instant classic.

[mundane]

both team are basically evenly matched. dont believe the hype!

both teams know the only way to win this game is by outscoring the other, building on it and cruising on the game. having said that, the over is the lean esp the 1st half.

hmmmm so yeah... a decisive win by the memphis over ucla and kansas almost choked. obviously public liked what they saw in memphis. but then again, they play the same type of game and are basically the same team, at least from what ive seen. the fact is ucla didnt show up and memphis took advantage of that. kansas got rattled but they eventually reorganized and won the game. with that fact, im taking kansas. at this level of competition i dont think they will make the same mistake. i think they will put up a fight to the end. i dont think i can say the same abt memphis. once it slips away from memphis, itz a goner for them. kansas are bigger and stronger. they know who to guard on the opposing team. and they know what to do at whatever defense that is thrown at them (see unc game). plus, there is a big chance that memphis' free throw shooting will get exposed on this game. it's just a matter of time they start missing again and tonight might just be the night.

edit:
also for the whole game over, it will be the free throws - memphis fouling to stop the clock because they are losing.

kansas ftw!

kansas +2
over 146
kansas 83 - memphis 76
total: 159

[BrUno0]

I like kansas here, but i'm going with memphis if that makes sense.

[mofome]

The NCAA Title Game shapes as one of the most competitive ever, at least on paper. The two elite teams have saved their best basketball for late March/early April, promising us an entertaining finale in San Antonio tonight.

Opening Line: Kansas 1.5, O/U 144

Current Line: Memphis 2, O/U 146.5

Season Rec: Kansas 36-3, Memphis 38-1

Ave Score: Kansas 81-61, Memphis 80-62

Season Edge: Despite their near perfect record, Memphis wins by 18 points per game, compared to 20 by Kansas. Add in strength of schedule, especially in respect to conference play, and I'd say the Jayhawks were 4 points better than the Tigers. Note that both teams have an average Total of 142 points in their PF vs PA.

Tourney Edge: Let's look at the last four tourney games for each club. Why not all five games? Because #1 vs #16 "games" aren't actually contests at all, more of a scrimmage for the top seeds as they get ready for the real competition. For the record, Kansas and Memphis each won by 24 over "powder puffs" Portland State and Texas Arlington in the opening round. After that, the Jayhawks and Tigers faced roughly the same level of competition and each won by an average of 13.5 points. Strangely, Kansas did so via 4 Unders and an average score of 72.5-59. Conversely, Memphis was involved in 4 Overs and average score of 83-69.5. Even stranger is the fact that the combined average of all eight of these contests is---you guessed it...142 again.

Final Thoughts: My betting scale is from a low of 1 Unit to a max of 5 Units. Also I avoid the "Super Bowl Syndrome" of betting more on the last game of the season just because of its championship ramifications. It doesn't make sense to me as it's simply another game. That said, what was once a 4 point Kansas edge has been shaved down to 2 based on recent play. Also, the 142 Total seems solid; it's been a recurring theme here. My only fear here though is the very real possibility of OT. So my plays are:

Kansas+2 3 Units & Under 146.5 1 Unit

Hedge Hog

[seaborneq]

Memphis -2
under 146

Memphis is believing in Coach Cal right now. The dynamic duo of CDR and Rose are by far and away the two best players left playing that are not in the NBA. Their defense is the most underrated part of the Memphis puzzle. Everyone raves about the scoring and depth, but their rebounding and defense is making good teams look average. Kansas played the best ball I have seen them play under coach Self on Saturday, completely opposite of the tightness/choking that I witnessed against Davidson. I believe that the Tigers are the better team defensively, which I do believe will be the main focus by both of these teams. In short, Kansas may have the better "team", but I believe the Memphis has the best two players, which I think gives them the edge. My final score prediction is Memphis 70- Kansas 68. Memphis shoots over 80% from the line tonight.

[thegreatdiatchi]

Kansas vs Memphis
Line: Memphis - 2, o/u 146

TOURNEY GAMES:

Kansas had a relatively easy tourney schedule up until a tough matchup with Davidson. This team then shut down what was the most deadly offensive team in the tournament.

Memphis got a scare in the 2nd round vs Miss. St. but otherwise controlled their way to the championship game with the 2 most recent decisive wins being over Texas and UCLA.

Kansas: 85-61 vs PRTS, 75-56 vs UNLV, 72-57 vs NOVA, 59-57 vs Davidson, 84-66 vs UNC

Memphis: 87-63 vs UTA, 77-74 vs Miss St., 92-74 vs Mich. St., 85-67 vs Texas ,78-63 vs UCLA

THE MATCHUP

Key players

Memphis: G: Chris Douglas-Roberts (leading scorer in tournament 23.6 ppg), G: Derrick Rose, F: Joey Dorsey, F: Robert Dozier

Kansas: G: Mario Chalmers, G: Brandon Rush, F: Darnell Jackson, F: Darrell Arthur

Summary:

This matchup is extremely hard to call on paper because both teams are evenly matched. I think the fact that Memphis has played a harder tourney schedule and dominated gives them the look of a team that Kansas just can't stop. However, I think there are two intangibles that play in Kansas's favor here. First off, NC State in 1974 was the last team with 1 loss to win the NCAA Basketball Championship. The second factor, which I think is most important, centers around fouls - both making the free throws and who fouls out of the game. Kansas has no problem making free throws and while Memphis has improved on this during the tourney the championship game itself puts a whole lot more pressure on the team. If Kansas can shut down UNC I think they can do the same to Memphis - just not as easily. This game will be tight until late in the 2nd half when Memphis chokes at the line.

Official Picks

KANSAS +2 for purposes of contest but i'm really Kansas ML here. 4 units
UNDER 146 1 unit (I'm scared on this because while I think it can hit in regulation I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go to OT)
Final Score: Kansas 76 Memphis 69
Total: 145 pts

[thegreatdiatchi]

yikes, that was hard. i thought i knew that you guys were really good at this but i had no idea of how good until now.

[BigOrangeTitans]

BOT = Longest Write-up.

Do i get a bonus point?

[Iwinyourmoney]

If I dont win the writeup contest, this shit is rigged. I understand I have to take my licks before you understand that I will beat .99% of all you

[HedgeHog]

yikes, that was hard. i thought i knew that you guys were really good at this but i had no idea of how good until now.

You did great, and not just because your picks agree with mine.

[Panic]

If you send me your social security number, your w-2, and bank account number with routing info, You will receive a nice write up for this game.

Just send it to: Jimmy "Two Times" Rozano or Tony "the Butcher" Marzetti. We'll take care of the rest.

[EaglesPhan36]

I wanna be famous too. Cut & pasted from the NCAAB section where I put this earlier.

Seeing 146.5 [now 147.5] right now. I think how you play the total could be easier than crunching #s ... but I'll crunch in any case.

If you think Kansas will win ....
UNDER

If you think Memphis will win ....
OVER

Stats don't lie here ... all 5 of KU's tourney games have gone under. All 5 of Memphis' tourney games have gone over. Another note ... this is the highest total Memphis has seen in the tourney. Only the UCLA game would not have passed the current Championship total. For KU, this is 3rd time they'll see a total in this neighborhood. They had 146.5 against an up-tempo Davidson squad and that under hit with ease. 144 against Villanova, a game that stopped at 129. And 147 against Portland State, that one hit 146.

FTs will play an enormous part here as well. KU is averaging only about 16 attempts per contest in the NCAAs and their opponents 18 attempts. That # is skewed heavily by 34 attempts by UNLV. Conversely, Memphis games have featured a heavy parade to the FT line. In fact, the UCLA game marked a low with 23 FTs attempted for the Tigers. They had been averaging over 30. Their opponents are averaging just 16 attempts per game. From those #s, you would expect the FT story to follow more along the lines of a Kansas game in the tourney which means instead of 40-50 FTs, we could see 40 or less. Memphis has been red hot making FTs and again I will say the secret is easy ... if Rose and CDR shoot 'em, they're going to continue to make 70% or more. If the big guys get involved, it gets more dicey. Kansas for their part haven't been world beaters from the line, 65% in the tourney. So rounding out to about 40 FT attempts in this one, shoot for between 65-70% to be made. That means 28 FTs made with a little wiggle room on either side.

From a FG standpoint, KU is averaging 26 makes per contest in the tourney, while yielding just 20. Memphis is averaging a little over 28 per game, while yielding just over 25 makes per game. If we average that out, you're looking at 49-50 made FGs in this one. Toss in the made 3 PTs and you could expect anywhere from 106-111 points I believe.

Based on the # crunching and my own opinion that KU will be the best D that Memphis has faced and vice versa, I am looking at the UNDER right now. KU held a potent UNC offense to 66 points and has held opponents to under 60 ppg for the tourney. On the other side, even in strolling into the Championship game, Memphis is giving up 68 ppg. I see this game playing out with the winner dipping into the low-to-mid 70s and the other team playing in the high 60s/near 70 to slip this one under the #. Somewhere around 140-144.

UNDER 147.5 [Bookmaker.com]
KANSAS +1.5 [Bookmaker.com]

Score: Kansas 73-68
Points: 141

[mofome]

I wanna be famous too. Cut & pasted from the NCAAB section where I put this earlier.




UNDER 147.5 [Bookmaker.com]
KANSAS +1.5 [Bookmaker.com]

Score: Kansas 73-68
Points: 141

[5 star bomb]

I have KU at +2 and under 147.5. I like Kansas a lot tonight they have the smarts and defense to win this game. They will make Memphis settle for way more outside jumpers then they would like. Memphis is a slashing and fast breaking team. Kansas has the perimeter defenders to stop the slashers in roberts and rose, and will make them put it up from the outside which is not there game.
If they do drive into the lane Kansas has the big bodies in the middle that will come to help.

Kansas 75

Memphis 67

[mofome]

so people know, this contest has nothing to do with SBR

[thegreatdiatchi]

You did great, and not just because your picks agree with mine.

I wouldn't know how right you were until after the fact.

[mofome]

I have KU at +2 and under 147.5. I like Kansas a lot tonight they have the smarts and defense to win this game. They will make Memphis settle for way more outside jumpers then they would like. Memphis is a slashing and fast breaking team. Kansas has the perimeter defenders to stop the slashers in roberts and rose, and will make them put it up from the outside which is not there game.
If they do drive into the lane Kansas has the big bodies in the middle that will come to help.

Kansas 75

Memphis 67

that score was almost exactly right....its a bit diff when you figure in OT...but damn.

[mofome]

I wanna be famous too. Cut & pasted from the NCAAB section where I put this earlier.




UNDER 147.5 [Bookmaker.com]
KANSAS +1.5 [Bookmaker.com]

Score: Kansas 73-68
Points: 141

gd, this score was almost exact as well.

[mofome]

Kansas vs Memphis
Line: Memphis - 2, o/u 146

TOURNEY GAMES:

Kansas had a relatively easy tourney schedule up until a tough matchup with Davidson. This team then shut down what was the most deadly offensive team in the tournament.

Memphis got a scare in the 2nd round vs Miss. St. but otherwise controlled their way to the championship game with the 2 most recent decisive wins being over Texas and UCLA.

Kansas: 85-61 vs PRTS, 75-56 vs UNLV, 72-57 vs NOVA, 59-57 vs Davidson, 84-66 vs UNC

Memphis: 87-63 vs UTA, 77-74 vs Miss St., 92-74 vs Mich. St., 85-67 vs Texas ,78-63 vs UCLA

THE MATCHUP

Key players

Memphis: G: Chris Douglas-Roberts (leading scorer in tournament 23.6 ppg), G: Derrick Rose, F: Joey Dorsey, F: Robert Dozier

Kansas: G: Mario Chalmers, G: Brandon Rush, F: Darnell Jackson, F: Darrell Arthur

Summary:

This matchup is extremely hard to call on paper because both teams are evenly matched. I think the fact that Memphis has played a harder tourney schedule and dominated gives them the look of a team that Kansas just can't stop. However, I think there are two intangibles that play in Kansas's favor here. First off, NC State in 1974 was the last team with 1 loss to win the NCAA Basketball Championship. The second factor, which I think is most important, centers around fouls - both making the free throws and who fouls out of the game. Kansas has no problem making free throws and while Memphis has improved on this during the tourney the championship game itself puts a whole lot more pressure on the team. If Kansas can shut down UNC I think they can do the same to Memphis - just not as easily. This game will be tight until late in the 2nd half when Memphis chokes at the line.

Official Picks

KANSAS +2 for purposes of contest but i'm really Kansas ML here. 4 units
UNDER 146 1 unit (I'm scared on this because while I think it can hit in regulation I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go to OT)
Final Score: Kansas 76 Memphis 69
Total: 145 pts

now i know something weird is happening. what did everyone have the same dream last night?

[ChuteBoxe]

so people know, this contest has nothing to do with SBR

Who paid for the IPod?

[BigOrangeTitans]

"Final score: Memphis Tigers 74 Kansas Jayhawks 69"

Do i get the reverse prize?

[mofome]

Who paid for the IPod?

no worries my friend.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah so we gonna chop that iPod up or what?

[ChuteBoxe]

No doubt. No more questions asked. But, if you did pay for it, I hope all the sh*t talkers take notice. On top of the $50 you took out of your pocket and sent out for the Super Bowl contest you ran. The kid didn't even really win, but because he was the closest, you still sent him your own money. That takes class bud. You have to be the nicest kid on here bottom line, and these little kids are all running their big f*ckin mouths lately, and then they kiss the asses of stiffs. Honestly pisses me off.

[mofome]

No doubt. No more questions asked. But, if you did pay for it, I hope all the sh*t talkers take notice. On top of the $50 you took out of your pocket and sent out for the Super Bowl contest you ran. The kid didn't even really win, but because he was the closest, you still sent him your own money. That takes class bud. You have to be the nicest kid on here bottom line, and these little kids are all running their big f*ckin mouths lately. Honestly pisses me off.

haha its cool bud, most people don't really know me on here. fact is, many people are selfish and they tend to see what they want to see instead of whats there. if someone is going to be sensitive because he doesn't like how a debate some sports topic or because im sarcastic with him in a thread, then so be it. people choose what they want to see and what they want to value. i get soooo much more good stuff than negative from these forums thats its ridiculous....its just that the negative people speak the loudest. i only have the chance to work on a forum like this because of my good buds that have come over to talk with me wherever ive gone....without those guys i wouldn't be able to have a pretty fun job like this and i consider anything ive got to be theirs as well. we all have our own principles, perspectives, and beliefs. thanks for the post Chute.

[thegreatdiatchi]

Chute I agree with you 100% here...at the end of the day a person's character means more than anything and Mo has a character that exceeds standards of good character.