Is this an unloseable superbowl prop?

[KingKolzig]

Total # of Pitt players to score o3 (-155)

TD, FG, safeties ect count. Opened at 5dimes at -135 and now its -185. I got it an BetHorizon for -150.


It would be really tough to hit the under on this prop i think. Pitt could score 21 pts on 2 mendenhall TD's and a Miller TD. But suisham is 14/15 on fg's this season so i dont see them passing up the opportunity in a dome to try a few. So i think about a 70% chance of a pitt fg, mixed in with a couple of TD's and its a push. Far greater chance of a win than a loss i think. So the juice is worth it.

[mdemps9190]

yes, but you're also saying that pitt scores 3 times...Could very well be a 21-14 game.

[rm18]

without thinking too hard I think about 40% win 35% push 25% loss

[VegasInsider]

At first glance, this looks like a lock. But, it could get interesting if GB controls the ball and plays the good defense they have been. I'm fairly certain that Big Ben will throw at least 1 TD and that they'll kick at least 1 FG. I'd be confident in getting at least a PUSH out of this wager. I might have to jump on myself, even at the -185

[dollarbill]

This is the Prop that tells me the winnner...

Bonus 3/289 @ Meadows in 5 minutes...........

[jagermeister1]

Anytime I see "unlosable" in a subject, or lock, or guarantee, it usually turns out to be a loser. Your logic seems okay, but it's just a jinx if I ever saw one.

[Cap dat 4ss]

I can think of only one way this prop loses.

[exstatman]

Sportsbook.com had an "unloseable" SB prop a few years ago, offering +135 on Indy over 2 rushers. Clearly Manning and Addai were going to carry, which would make this a push at worst, but when Manning threw a lateral to Clark, it was a win. This prop requires 2 different Steelers to score TD's for a push, not a bad bet, but not as good as the Colts prop a few years ago, IMHO. BTW, the prop closed at -235.

[yisman]

This prop requires 2 different Steelers to score TD's for a push, not a bad bet, but not as good as the Colts prop a few years ago, IMHO.

I don't think so.

[Footballtime]

Of course it requires 2 stellers to score a TD, I mean Suisham will either kick an Xtra point or Field goal, So you need 2 other score's, Obviously would be TD's Since Suisham hads already scored!

[Dad]

Of course it requires 2 stellers to score a TD, I mean Suisham will either kick an Xtra point or Field goal, So you need 2 other score's, Obviously would be TD's Since Suisham hads already scored!

Xtra points count?

[exstatman]

Sorry, thought I saw PAT as counting

[d2bets]

Wouldn't Pitt need a minimum of 24 points for you to win? 1 score for the kicker, but then you need 3 more scores on TD's, and that's assuming it is a different player each time. If they score 24 points then why not just go O21 points? Granted, this way you could push on, say, 17 points, with 1 FG and 2 TD's. But on balance, I don't like this at all, especially at -150 or higher. If Pitt doesn't score 17+ you will lose, automatic (short of a safety).

[Footballtime]

Not sure if xtra points count or not, But the key word is Steelers Players to score. Whether Sisham kicks a FG or xtra point, It still counts as 1 Score. 2 Mendenhall TD's= 1 Score only! I actually may back the other side of this Prop. I mean worst case im seeing a busy on the under 3, and quite possibly a winner if more then 1 player scores twice! GL FBT

[rm18]

Sportsbook.com had an "unloseable" SB prop a few years ago, offering +135 on Indy over 2 rushers. Clearly Manning and Addai were going to carry, which would make this a push at worst, but when Manning threw a lateral to Clark, it was a win. This prop requires 2 different Steelers to score TD's for a push, not a bad bet, but not as good as the Colts prop a few years ago, IMHO. BTW, the prop closed at -235.

look what % of the time Manning has a carry for his career

[milwaukee mike]

Wouldn't Pitt need a minimum of 24 points for you to win? 1 score for the kicker, but then you need 3 more scores on TD's, and that's assuming it is a different player each time. If they score 24 points then why not just go O21 points? Granted, this way you could push on, say, 17 points, with 1 FG and 2 TD's. But on balance, I don't like this at all, especially at -150 or higher. If Pitt doesn't score 17+ you will lose, automatic (short of a safety).

i normally don't like to lay chalk on something i think will push

[milwaukee mike]

the more i think about this the more i am liking the under

i think there's as much chance of 2 or less than there is of 4 or more different scorers

[rm18]

Wouldn't Pitt need a minimum of 24 points for you to win? 1 score for the kicker, but then you need 3 more scores on TD's, and that's assuming it is a different player each time. If they score 24 points then why not just go O21 points? Granted, this way you could push on, say, 17 points, with 1 FG and 2 TD's. But on balance, I don't like this at all, especially at -150 or higher. If Pitt doesn't score 17+ you will lose, automatic (short of a safety).

saftey, two point conversion, kicker injury could happen, also you do not need a FG, 14 points is a push.

[Duby]

This prop looks good to me. I think its a winner

[exstatman]

look what % of the time Manning has a carry for his career

But taking a knee counts as a rush, so that made it almost impossible to lose, IMHO.

[exstatman]

I don't think so.

The prop is number of Steelers to score in ANY manner, so my statement is correct, unless the kicker misses both PAT's. So as long as two different Steelers score a TD, the prop would push on a score of 14 points.

[KingKolzig]

extra point has to count. it puts a score on the board. as does a TD, safety and FG

[KingKolzig]

the more i think about this the more i am liking the under

i think there's as much chance of 2 or less than there is of 4 or more different scorers

i think you are right this is confusing. it should read "# pitt players to score TD, FG or safety" if not xp's are implied

[d2bets]

saftey, two point conversion, kicker injury could happen, also you do not need a FG, 14 points is a push.

Safety for Pitt is maybe 1 in 20. Kicker injury? Seriously? Maybe 1 in 200. Two point conversion? Yeah, OK, maybe 1 in 10 there. All together, maybe 1 in 8 for an extra score. It matter, but not a whole lot. What about if they don't kick any FG's. Then you likely need not only 4 TD;s, but all from different scorers. What if Pitt gets 3 TD's, but they're all by Mendenhall?

I don't like the O3 as a big chalk. I'd have to analyze closer, but anything over -120 or so seems bad.

[exstatman]

Just to be clear, the prop is " PIT players to score any manner ov 3" so PAT's count. So the bet is a push if two different Steelers score a TD and the kicker makes at least 1 PAT. Pretty good chance of at least a push it would seem.

[KingKolzig]

this is messed up cause for instance they offer "suisham total pts scored o7.5" . why dont books just clarify these things, sometimes an xp is a score sometimes not???

[milwaukee mike]

i think you are right this is confusing. it should read "# pitt players to score TD, FG or safety" if not xp's are implied

wow i change my mind if extra points count
takes the need for a field goal out of the equation

pittsburgh would then really only need 14 points for a push unless the same guy scores both

[KingKolzig]

trouble brewin for me

Bethorizon via live chat:

"Total number of different steelers to score wager is on how many of teams players will score in game. any score by a player counts towards wager. fg, td, safety ect count as a score. overtime counts towards wager. official stats via NFL.com max wager $500"

[beanbag]

i really like it at the -155 but the -185 is a bit too much juice

[KingKolzig]

trouble brewin for me

Bethorizon via live chat:

"Total number of different steelers to score wager is on how many of teams players will score in game. any score by a player counts towards wager. fg, td, safety ect count as a score. overtime counts towards wager. official stats via NFL.com max wager $500"

"ect"??????

i mean a score is a point is a point. they just told me xp dont count , then they told me to hold on when i pointed out what else ect could mean

[jwbjwbjwb12]

i think it could easily be a low scoring game and if mendenhall gets 2 u might be fuked IMO

[KingKolzig]

wow i change my mind if extra points count
takes the need for a field goal out of the equation

pittsburgh would then really only need 14 points for a push unless the same guy scores both

yes if xp counts at your book and you can find a decent price its a definite go. its slanted heavily in the over favor at that point

[ttwarrior1]

this bet is a lock as well as over 3 fg made for the game by the 2 teams

[KingKolzig]

Bethorizon. just said on chat xp counts!!!!

also got them to email the chat log. hopefully mendenhall doesnt turn into a goal line gremlin

[Nomocino]

Its a lock

what the total on GB players?