January Advantage Gambling Thread
Past installments:
September: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...alk-style.html
October: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...alk-style.html
This time I want to build it around accurate record keeping.
There is nothing more important in gambling than having detailed accurate records. Guys go season to season betting, withdrawing some and depositing more. I'd guess 90% of the people here have no fukkin clue what they are up or down in each sport, let alone anything else. How do you know where your edge is or if you have one at all without records?
1. Betting amount - Should you flat bet or change depending on confidence level. Without a doubt you need to change based on confidence level. You might ask, how do I know when I have a bigger edge? That is what your records are for
. Even if you don't want to start off betting this way, you should track your picks on a 1-5 scale and see how each does. If the 5's are winning more, obviously bet them more. If the 1's are below 52%, cut them out altogether. It might not be this simple, you might come to the conclusion your underdogs cover 58% of the time and favs cover 54% of the time. Clearly you have a bigger edge on the dogs so you bet more . You might not always say "the games I feel confident in win more", but over a big enough sample you should find certain sports, type of bets (ML dogs, ML favs, 1h, 1q etc etc etc), angles, or whatever else that win more than others, so use this to your advantage.
2. # of Bets - Should you wager a small amount of games or alot of games per day? Again, it depends on your records. My guess is, if you need to ask this question the answer is a small amount. The guys that bet many games usually have models, trends, and/or angles that allow them to plug in information and spit out hundreds of games. Again if you are asking this question, my guess is you don't know where your edge ends, so alot of those games you add at the end are actually -EV bets, you just don't know it. Once you can win a small amount of games, then add more and more.
3. Bankroll/Winrates - Never try to figure how much you want to win/how much you need to win or anything else. Just don't figure anything out. Once you deposit money you should think of sports betting as not using actual money. I use to tilt alot in my younger days thinking how much I was up or down until I started thinking of it as 1 continuous, long, boring chess game. People go crazy losing 6, 7, or even 10 in a row and leads to tilt (I've gone 2-20 and can go 20-2). You can't think like that-- understand 100% isn't possible. If you need some great, high bar to reach, make it 60%. This way when you go on a cold streak and are at 53%, you still aren't that far off and can just keep grinding. Never look at it as money.
4. Paying for picks - Should you pay for picks? No. It's real simple, most people don't have a fukkin clue and are looking to make a buck off of you since they can't win with their picks. Just like teasers and parlays there are profitable pay handicappers, but the chances of you finding one are so slim when you are just starting, that its better to just learn on your own. The risk of paying them + losing money on their picks is greater than winning money on their picks....and on this note, just avoid free picks from posters on SBR with absurd claims...every once in a while someone will go on a streak but its fairly easy to tell if someone is hot or good.
Additional comments:
Quit teasing through 0 in any sport, especially in basketball though
Never bet 3 team parlays in the SBR Book (don't ask why, figure it out)
Next one I think will be more like September's
Nothing new in here, but noone keeps records and you need to because it sets up everything else
September: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...alk-style.html
October: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...alk-style.html
This time I want to build it around accurate record keeping.
There is nothing more important in gambling than having detailed accurate records. Guys go season to season betting, withdrawing some and depositing more. I'd guess 90% of the people here have no fukkin clue what they are up or down in each sport, let alone anything else. How do you know where your edge is or if you have one at all without records?
1. Betting amount - Should you flat bet or change depending on confidence level. Without a doubt you need to change based on confidence level. You might ask, how do I know when I have a bigger edge? That is what your records are for
. Even if you don't want to start off betting this way, you should track your picks on a 1-5 scale and see how each does. If the 5's are winning more, obviously bet them more. If the 1's are below 52%, cut them out altogether. It might not be this simple, you might come to the conclusion your underdogs cover 58% of the time and favs cover 54% of the time. Clearly you have a bigger edge on the dogs so you bet more . You might not always say "the games I feel confident in win more", but over a big enough sample you should find certain sports, type of bets (ML dogs, ML favs, 1h, 1q etc etc etc), angles, or whatever else that win more than others, so use this to your advantage.2. # of Bets - Should you wager a small amount of games or alot of games per day? Again, it depends on your records
. My guess is, if you need to ask this question the answer is a small amount. The guys that bet many games usually have models, trends, and/or angles that allow them to plug in information and spit out hundreds of games. Again if you are asking this question, my guess is you don't know where your edge ends, so alot of those games you add at the end are actually -EV bets, you just don't know it. Once you can win a small amount of games, then add more and more.3. Bankroll/Winrates - Never try to figure how much you want to win/how much you need to win or anything else. Just don't figure anything out. Once you deposit money you should think of sports betting as not using actual money. I use to tilt alot in my younger days thinking how much I was up or down until I started thinking of it as 1 continuous, long, boring chess game. People go crazy losing 6, 7, or even 10 in a row and leads to tilt (I've gone 2-20 and can go 20-2). You can't think like that-- understand 100% isn't possible. If you need some great, high bar to reach, make it 60%. This way when you go on a cold streak and are at 53%, you still aren't that far off and can just keep grinding. Never look at it as money.
4. Paying for picks - Should you pay for picks? No. It's real simple, most people don't have a fukkin clue and are looking to make a buck off of you since they can't win with their picks. Just like teasers and parlays there are profitable pay handicappers, but the chances of you finding one are so slim when you are just starting, that its better to just learn on your own. The risk of paying them + losing money on their picks is greater than winning money on their picks.
...and on this note, just avoid free picks from posters on SBR with absurd claims...every once in a while someone will go on a streak but its fairly easy to tell if someone is hot or good.Additional comments:
Quit teasing through 0 in any sport, especially in basketball though
Never bet 3 team parlays in the SBR Book (don't ask why, figure it out)
Next one I think will be more like September's
Nothing new in here, but noone keeps records and you need to because it sets up everything else
