Bookie Report 1.17.11

[Bookie Z]

I run as a private bookie between friends and close partners. I go through the % of action and fade for my own wager on whatever game attains the most action. My liquid equity or capital whichever term works for you is $35,000. I take action from roughly 60 people daily. Majority of the people are casual players who play for fun which us "bookies" love. I fade what my client takes and personally wager with 5Dimes and Bodog. If you're wondering how my clients do 2nd half wagers, they either call me or e-mail me and I have them under a payment list..if they lose they come see me, pretty simple. No one has been scammed thus far thankfully

Need these:
Oklahoma City Thunder @ L.A. Lakers - 1st Half
UNDER 103.5

92% of action on the over.

Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

88% of action on the Lakers.


2H play pending.

[paco]

Is that u TSoprano?

[FourLengthsClear]

By "fading your client" do you mean that you double (or at least increase) your exposure?

[Bookie Z]

I do the research before putting out available lines or when I personally wager. Do I personally wager all the time? No. But I've been running this "business" for 7 months successfully and found that the clients I have go by what the TV says and don't look into the match-ups. @FourLengthsClear Yes.

[Bookie Z]

61% of the action was on Portland tonight which ultimately equals no play. Anything less than 75% isn't worth consulting.

[lemart5]

"So how many legs have you broken?"

[FourLengthsClear]

What would a solid week of "square friendly" results do to your bankroll?
Would you still be solvent?

[Bookie Z]

@Lemart5 None this isn't a shady venture. Knowing who you allow to be associated with is key. This isn't Vegas or Atlantic City where there is millions of dollars at stake. Most I've ever accepted is $1,500 on the December 25th NBA game between the Lakers and Heat. He took Lakers -3.

[Bookie Z]

@FourLengthsClear It's happened before but it's not a long-term problem because "square friendly" results can lose as well. There are going to be weeks when a few clients get on a hot streak, but eventually become brash and raise their own limits and push it all in on a few select games. I don't accept action that exceeds 35% of what I have in liquid "money". Rarely ever have to worry about going broke with how the system I run works. For example: Lakers win tonight and the 1H wager goes over. 92% of the action may seem like big trouble for myself, but it's really not. First off, hardly any of my clients consistently win. Secondly, the action I received for tonight is between $1500-2300. Less than 10% of what I have stored away. I started this as a bland idea with 4 people wagering 10 dollars and I've grown it to what it is today from barely anything.

[boulara]

This sounds interesting... Ill follow along.

[FourLengthsClear]

@FourLengthsClear It's happened before but it's not a long-term problem because "square friendly" results can lose as well. There are going to be weeks when a few clients get on a hot streak, but eventually become brash and raise their own limits and push it all in on a few select games. I don't accept action that exceeds 35% of what I have in liquid "money". Rarely ever have to worry about going broke with how the system I run works. For example: Lakers win tonight and the 1H wager goes over. 92% of the action may seem like big trouble for myself, but it's really not. First off, hardly any of my clients consistently win. Secondly, the action I received for tonight is between $1500-2300. Less than 10% of what I have stored away. I started this as a bland idea with 4 people wagering 10 dollars and I've grown it to what it is today from barely anything.

Fair enough, I wasn't looking to criticise, just askin'.

I am a trader and always look to offset/hedge any big exposure I run into but would have made more money in the long run by "fading" too.

[Bookie Z]

@FourLengthsClear A trader for what, who and how long specifically if I may ask? Hedging/offsetting will be vital come playoffs/March Madness/Super Bowl. I started during the low peak of sports, and my spreadsheet's will be through the roof when March rolls around.

[FourLengthsClear]

@FourLengthsClear A trader for what, who and how long specifically if I may ask? Hedging/offsetting will be vital come playoffs/March Madness/Super Bowl. I started during the low peak of sports, and my spreadsheet's will be through the roof when March rolls around.

Sports and about 8 years.

Betfair is my main medium. I tend to focus on markets that have low to medium liquidity (soccer and tennis markets are too 'crowded'). Hence my interest in US Sports.

[Bookie Z]

@FourLengthsClear Interesting. What's your opinion on it so far throughout the 8 years you've been involved in the "game"?

[FourLengthsClear]

@FourLengthsClear Interesting. What's your opinion on it so far throughout the 8 years you've been involved in the "game"?

The main thing I have learned is that I am not a great handicapper!
I always set my odds according to the market and my exposure and totally ignore my own opinion.

Discipline is the single most important factor, I have taken some very big hits (thankfully mostly in the past) due to my refusal to accept a small loss when lines have moved against my position.

[paco]

Looks like the players got that 1st half Over.

[Bookie Z]

1st Half Over hit. Under looked solid 6 minutes left in the 2Q, however those were the back-ups in and Westbrook went off later on. Getting calls right now on the 2nd Half.

[mlb]

you should just post who your guys take and well fade away haha

[Bookie Z]

NEED THIS:

2nd Half: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

88%(15/17) on LA Lakers -2.5

[Bookie Z]

you should just post who your guys take and well fade away haha

I'll be posting just the games that have received the most action. Sometimes the public gets hot and get on a roll and the last thing I need is people on here bashing me because the fade is losing. I'll keep track of a record but just remember I'm the one losing the money if they win

[Bookie Z]

Also remember I'm not capping these games.

[Lets go out]

I love ok city 2H,,,Yhanks Bookz appreciate the post

[Domestic]

GL on 2nd half.

[CanuckG]

If this wins I'll give you 6 points I have OKC +5 though

[FuzzyDunlop]

Are you offering worse lines than Bodog?

[CanuckG]

damn lakers rolling public wins get em tomorrow

[Bookie Z]

@FuzzyDunlop My clients believe I'm pretty fair.
@CanuckG Yeah, it happens. But it's also a good thing in disguise. Winners tend to get over-confident and double their bet to try and keep rolling which has proven long-term to be risky.

[dngf]

Good information, thanks for posting. I agree, win a few and I quickly think maybe I am Billy Walters and start betting more, need to be more careful with that. Good luck in your book.

[mlb]

very true on all those fronts ..

thanks .. if nothing else it is just interesting to see what a local is coming across

[dherd]

question - 88% of how many bets? volume is a good thing to know.

[Bookie Z]

@dherd Believe I put it beside the %, 15 out of the 17 people have LA Lakers -2.5 2H.

[CanuckG]

2/19 oklahoma city from the 3 pt range unreal!!!!!!!!!

[CanuckG]

lakers got this im turning it off

[Bookie Z]

Looks like public sweeps. Be back tomorrow to see how it turns out. Had 3 people call me telling me tonight the fix was in for the Lakers

[CanuckG]

couple ques. how often does this happen...how much you lose and what's your best week