Why didn't Oregon let Auburn score with 1:55 to go?

[sterling111]

tcu would beat both of these guys

Now that's the funniest thing I've seen posted so far today.

[wtt0315]

i really wish we could have a plus 1 at least

[SportsBettingPro]

But Kelly is a guy that often does the unconventional. Going for it on 4th down, 2 point conversions, fake punts, fake FGs. Letting them score seems to fit right in with his MO. Put another way, Bill Stewart is never letting them score.

In the end it comes down to math. The all-time leading scorer at Auburn has an 85-90% chance to make the kick from 30-35 yards out (I'm assuming they get 5-8 yards on the first three downs but are stopped short of a first down on third) vs. the Oregon offense scoring a TD in that spot. Personally, I think the chances of Oregon scoring a TD are better than 15%. Probably closer to 30-40%.

Assuming your numbers are correct and OT is 50/50, that means allowing the score gives them 15-20% to win and not allowing it gives them 10-15%. That isn't much of a difference.

[jgray]

Assuming your numbers are correct and OT is 50/50, that means allowing the score gives them 15-20% to win and not allowing it gives them 10-15%. That isn't much of a difference.

Isn't your math incomplete? Why not multiply the chance of winning on the missed FG by 50% too? It was tied at 19. A miss sends the game to OT.

Thus, the difference is between 5-7.5% vs 15-20%.

[cadillac pete]

But Kelly is a guy that often does the unconventional. Going for it on 4th down, 2 point conversions, fake punts, fake FGs. Letting them score seems to fit right in with his MO. Put another way, Bill Stewart is never letting them score.

In the end it comes down to math. The all-time leading scorer at Auburn has an 85-90% chance to make the kick from 30-35 yards out (I'm assuming they get 5-8 yards on the first three downs but are stopped short of a first down on third) vs. the Oregon offense scoring a TD in that spot. Personally, I think the chances of Oregon scoring a TD are better than 15%. Probably closer to 30-40%.

Your absolutly right. I guess Kelly suffered a costly lapse of creative judgment.

[nli07]

If I was a Oregon Duck fan, I would have much preferred to leave the game in the hands of LaMichael James than in the hands of God hoping the kicker misses.

I can't believe there are SOOO MANY of you who thought the same way!!!
We should all be coaches haha.

[jkilla990]

What happens if you let them score but the runner purposely takes a knee at the 1 yard line. then they milk the clock and get a very easy chip shot.

[MrExacta]

had oregon +3.5 early on....needed every bit of it.

MrExacta `-

[jgray]

What happens if you let them score but the runner purposely takes a knee at the 1 yard line. then they milk the clock and get a very easy chip shot.

Well, then you are screwed.

We've seen that a number times before. Westbrook did it for Philly. MJD too. And the kid from Stanford did it earlier this year (although they didn't need the FG in that spot as they were up 4).

There's nothing you can do if they won't score. The issue is do you let them try.

[jkilla990]

Well, then you are screwed.

We've seen that a number times before. Westbrook did it for Philly. MJD too. And the kid from Stanford did it earlier this year (although they didn't need the FG in that spot as they were up 4).

There's nothing you can do if they won't score. The issue is do you let them try.

What im saying is youd be better off trying to hold them for a 40 yard field goal then to automatically give them the game if they decide and kneel down. If they are a smart team they will always win the game in that situation whereas if you dont let them score, they have to make a semi difficult field goal.

[jgray]

What im saying is youd be better off trying to hold them for a 40 yard field goal then to automatically give them the game if they decide and kneel down. If they are a smart team they will always win the game in that situation whereas if you dont let them score, they have to make a semi difficult field goal.

While I think your concern is legitimate in theory, last night we know they not have taken a knee on the one yard line (at least we can be pretty sure). When Dyer broke free the only thing that kept him from the endzone was Oregon tacklers.

[bradthebloke]

prob cuz their offense was pretty stagnant most of the game

[blackbart]

simple
odds of org winning if they let auburn burn the clock and kick fg = 0%
odds of org winning if they let auburn score the td [something] > 0%
i was hoping org didnt realize this