Stock Market report and review

[RageWizard]

Alright people I gots a lot of shit to put up on this baby today, so lets go.
As usual I start by looking at the IWM daily chart. A look below shows that the volatility has been increasing as of late with huge swings up and down, like a killer rollercoaster ride. A look in the red circle shows that the IWM just can't seem to cross over the 50 day moving average.

[RageWizard]

A look at the weekly chart for IWM shows the price is still trending upwards. If you look at the 3 circles on the stochastics when they were oversold, IWM trended upwards even though the volume decreases. This is indicating to me that the market will probably have 1 or 2 more days of upside movement before it comes crashing down again.

[RageWizard]

A look at the S&P 500 or SPX shows that everytime this gets near the 50 day moving average it too will fail and start failing as indiated by the red circles. The stochastics are starting to get into the overbought neighborhood, and again the volatility is out-****ing-rageous. Heavy volatility is a bearish sign overall. You can tell the volatility by the size of the candle stick marks for each day.

[RageWizard]

O.K. on to the VIX index. Remember when its high you buy, when its low you go. It starting to get into the low territory so again, I'll be looking for this market to start giving back some of the gains that it made last week.

[RageWizard]

Now for some previous predictions. On 03-10-08 I said to golong on the XLF etf and below is the daiky chart for this fund. The open was 24.38, the high was 24.51 and the low was 23.50. Thursday it closed at 26.32, worst case if it was bought at the high for the day of the 10th is still 7.38% profit.

[RageWizard]

Below is a weekly chart of XLF if you look at the circled part when the etf was decreasing the coresponding volume was also increasing. Then the fund started to get into oversold territory on the stochastics and the rally started for the financial sector. A look at the daily chart shows some circled areas that show the fund inablity to cross over the 50 day moving average and stay there. The chart below shows that there is still some upside to this run. So how do you play this if your in the ETF? Well I'm going to place a $0.50 trailing stop so that when the fund tops out the stock will be automatically sold when the price decreases 50 cents. At that time I will then come in and short the stock.

[RageWizard]

Another prediction that I made was to short the energy sector or the XLE etf. The chart below shows the daily chart with another verticle line that indicates when I said to go short on this etf. The open for the 10th was 73.91, the high was 74.33 and the close was 72.76. On Thursday the close was 70.81. So far the profit is at 2.68%.

[SBR_John]

Good work RageWizard!

[RageWizard]

A look at the weekly chart for XLE shows that when this etf crashes, it really goes. I think this is only the start for fading the energy sector so I'm going to keep my short play on for this etf and place a stop at just above the 50 day moving average which is at about $73.50.

[RageWizard]

So how about an individual stock to play with? I looked for a long time over the weekend whilst watching the basketball tourny and I really can't find a stock that would give me wood if I went long in. I did find a good short to try. In the financial sector I will be lookinjg to short JPM, thats rigth Bear Sterns bailout master. A look at the daily chart below shows that when the stochatics get into the overbougt range the stock has a little sell off. Furthermore the stock had an increase in volume when it annouced it was going to eat up Bear Sterns for a couple of days but then the volume leveled out. If things in the overall market start looking down, this is a stock that I will be looking at to short along with the other shorts that I have listed above.

If your looking to put some money in the market for some long term plays, go to the doctor and get some medication. The volatility and the overall market trend shows some more hard times ahead for the future. You will have to wait for a compitulation in the market which will take some more time. The fed is stead fast against letting the market correct itself so I expect that he will try to inject cash and interest rate cuts and all the other tricks that they usually do, but nothing will keep this market from correcting and in the long run the fed is doing more harm than good.

[RageWizard]

O.K. this morning rally has sent the S&P (SPX) and the small and midcap stocks (IWM) over the 50 day moving average. At this point the market needs more volume to stay above the moving average, if not this may mark the turning point for the rally to fail. My plan of shorting the JPM will likely need to wait a day or so, the XLE is starting to get close to stopping me out but the XLF is up another 83 cents.

[RageWizard]

So the stock market shot up 200 points this morning and then flat lined for the rest of the day due to everyone waiting for someone else to continue to buy. It hasn't happened all day. Finally just a couple of minutes ago the market started to receed a little bit and my trailing stop for XLF was triggered at 26.85. Now I'm going to short the XLF and JPM right now before the close. JPM shorted at 46.50 and XLF shorted at 26.80. This could blow up in my face before tommorrow's open so I wouldn't recommend this for everyone because it is a little early for a short move. If the market opens down like I think it will tommorrow, it will still be alright to short at that time.

[aszzzbrokerman]

I just bought some puts on citi for this month. Looking to double up at a strike price of 25. Im looking for this stock to find its way back to 20. 22 would be acceptable though.

[RageWizard]

I just bought some puts on citi for this month. Looking to double up at a strike price of 25. Im looking for this stock to find its way back to 20. 22 would be acceptable though.

I think your chance is coming up pretty soon in my opinion.

[RageWizard]

A rare flat day in the market. As of lately the market has been up and down like yo-yo. XLF was basically flat and closed at 26.46. JPM started its fall losing 49 cents to close at 46.06. I don't know about XLE, it continues to defy gravity and move higher today it gained another percent point as it moved up 72 cents to close at 72.77. I still have my stop at 73.50 which is just above the 50 day moving average but it just doesn't seem to be working for me at this time.

The overall market has stalled now for the better part of 2 days, and it sits right on the 50 day moving average, which is rare. I've been watching CNBC and FOX BUSINESS because i'm a market junky and I hear alot of touting that this is the bottom of the market, and now is the time to go bargain hunting. I think this is pure bullshit and just a scam to try to get people in. The time to get in will be when it seems like the sky is falling and a compitulation comes into play. I am starting to think that the administration will keep selling us down the river and make the fed do rate cuts and cash infusions until after the election so maybe the market has 7 months of this style of trading to go before the big dip happens. Tommorrow hopefully the market will get off the 50 day moving average and take a big swan dive like i've pretty much said would happen sometime this week. I hate to be wrong but it happens every now and then, but until the indicators move above the 50 day moving average with some volume behind it, i'm not ready to concede failure yet.

[RageWizard]

On the opening of the market XLE gaped up to 73.71 and I got stopped out. Not to bad as I only lost 0.25% on that trade. I'm going to leave it alone for now. The other shorts are starting off pretty well today as some bad news about durable goods hit the street this morning. Just a couple of minutes ago the new home sales came out to be the worst in 13 years. Ouch. Hopefully this will get the market moving lower and help my financial short position predictions even more.

[RageWizard]

I am Fucking shocked. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry "Repulsive" Paulson just had a news conference where he actually told the truth. Basically he said that the government policy makers should not interfere with the drop in the housing market with some bailout measures, but instead just let the correction go on as the natural course of business that it is. Of course his comments sent the market going lower YEAH. It is time to turn the stop losses in XLF and JPM into trailing stops of about 1.00 for JPM and 0.75 for XLF to lock in profits. The trailing stops are generous here because of the format that I am trying to convey. Personally I will have much tighter stops and be churning butter if possible for the next couple days. The charts show that these stocks are still a good short play so the overall movement will be down I think, but I expect some volatility.

[RageWizard]

Financials fell today and people who were short made money today. As it stand now JPM is down 5% from were I shorted it, and xlf is down 4.29% as well. Now it is time to really tighten up the trailing stops to $0.40 for each stock just in case there is a reversal tommorrow. The way this market is lately, people like myself need to be making trades everyday to get over the volatility of huge up and down days.
I see even citibank got hit today. I don't know too much about the options market but looks like assbrokerman may be on the right side of the equation with the citibank call as well. Way to go.

[RageWizard]

Good morning from deep inside the stock bunker known as my mother's basement. Just kidding my mother threw my ass out years ago.
The market opened higher on the news that the GDP grew by 0.6%, are you fucking kidding me. Normally this would be a reason for the market to tank big time, but I guess now-a-days this is good news. My $0.40 stops are holding up fine for the initial rally this morning so far and JPM is continuing to sink so I will open the trailing stop for JPM from $0.40 to $0.75.
XLF is still holding up this morning up $0.09 right now after testing the stop line at $0.38. I'm going to open this trailing stop up to just $0.50. With the market not really doing much right now it could go either way so. If there is a big rally today, I might be stopped out of the stock in the beginning of the rally so I can come back in at the end of the day and place my shorts back on.
I know no-one really cares about this stuff but I think if I show you directly how it is done for a couple of months, maybe someone could be helped, or eventually some people will realize that this shit really works. It is also my way of being nice, which is something that I need to work on according to the old lady. Either way posting this stuff is helping me keep a sharp eye one the market and is helping me make money, which is the bottom line.

[RageWizard]

O.K. they put the classic short squeeze on over lunch when volumes are traditionally low, and both shorts got stopped out. So JPM was stopped at 43.78, and I started to short at 46.50, that is 5.85%. XLF was stopped at 25.68, and I started at 26.80, that is 4.18%. Not bad for 3 1/2 days work. If the market continues to rally this afternoon, I will put these shorts back on but if it doesn't, I think that will be it for the week. Next week I'll be looking at tech I think, but as always I will lose my opinion so I don't lose my money.

[jstblaze]

Thanks!

Just wanted to thank you for the time and the analysis.

It is much appreciated.

[aszzzbrokerman]

thanks for keeping us updated on your opinion rage

[FreeFall]

thanks Rage Im very much intersted in what you post. I invest in mutual funds the wrong way. I try to time them with the season of the year or if I think the market will tank I'll leave them. Right now I have all my cash in a MM as I'm just waiting for it to hit 11k again. What the fed is doing is all fluff, just like you said and we have a bigger problem ahead, but a great time to buy. It'll probably all happen around election time IMO.