Political wager: Seriously, tell me why this is not free money at -400???

The HG · 03-22-08, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Even if Hillary was to win every state left with a 60% to 40% winning % margin she will still be a dozen delegates behind. The most likely scenario has her behind by 95-110 delegates. No way will the Dem party snub a black man who has won the delegate race by even 1 much less a 100. -400 seems like a gift to me, how about you guys?? (oh yea,, and girls...)

Well I don't know about where the value in these lines lies, but yes way would any party snub someone for any reason at all if the political will is behind it. Yes of course there would be enormous outrage - for about a week. Then other news stories would take over, and it would be forgotten like all other political outrages.

The short term vs the long term effects of the news cycle is something political people vey consciously plan for. They are so aware of it that to them, if they want a story out there for longer or shorter, they react to unexpected news like gamblers react to a "bad beat". If they want a story out longer, they are "rooting" for no other major news. If they want it killed quickly, they root for other major news.

It is entirely possible that Hillary could be handed the nomination by superdelegates. And three months later, it would be considered "old news", like every other political scandal that changes things radically in the short term, but in the long-term, has very little effect on its own.

durito · 03-22-08, 04:57 PM

The election is barely 3 months after the convention. I will sure remember if they give the nomination to her.

I'm sitting on some obama plays at +200 and +185

AgainstAllOdds · 03-22-08, 04:58 PM

This isnt a lock by any means...there are still like 10 states left and a convention...Yes obama is in the lead but it could go either way, which at this time I think the number is correct showing he is the favorite to win. There might be value in putting some on Hillary IMO.

tacomax · 03-22-08, 04:58 PM

1) All delegates can switch sides (not just super delegates) - according to CNN yesterday

2) If the party thought Obama stood no chance in the race but Clinton would be a lock then 1) would follow

3) Clinton gets the popular vote and is pushed through on that basis

4) They re-instate the Florida results

5) Obama might get bumped off before getting the nomination

6) A scandal breaks about Obama's illicict liasons with Mario Doblin, a New Jersey rent boy

durito · 03-22-08, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds

This isnt a lock by any means...there are still like 10 states left and a convention...Yes obama is in the lead but it could go either way, which at this time I think the number is correct showing he is the favorite to win. There might be value in putting some on Hillary IMO.

She has a 0% chance of overtaking him in earned delegates. It comes down to the superdelegates.

capitalist pig · 03-22-08, 05:20 PM

Obama is dead, his preacher killed him. Clinton has been given a 2nd chance to win the rest of the popular vote, which in turn gives her a chance to take the super delegates, who wont go against the popular vote.

There is some irony here, most gamblers see the right wing religous nuts to blame for net gambling ban. Then the great black hope, has his own preacher destroy him, tremendously lowering the chances for a democratic win.

later

AgainstAllOdds · 03-22-08, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by durito

She has a 0% chance of overtaking him in earned delegates. It comes down to the superdelegates.

Yes and the super's can overturn anything they want....

The HG · 03-22-08, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by capitalist pig

There is some irony here, most gamblers see the right wing religous nuts to blame for net gambling ban.

The reason most gamblers see the right wing as to blame for the internet gambling ban is because the right wing is to blame for the internet gambling ban.

capitalist pig · 03-22-08, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by The HG

The reason most gamblers see the right wing as to blame for the internet gambling ban is because the right wing is to blame for the internet gambling ban.

Im not dissagreeing with that, but you got to admit its kinda funny a liberal preacher takes down the Dems chances.Then there is the irony in the Revs name "Wright", LOL.

later

JoshW · 03-22-08, 05:46 PM

I have a lot of Obama +180 to +220, but I yesterday I took some -330 at WSEX. I think it is a good bet. As long as he doesn't die or have found to fcked an animal, I think he is going to win. Even at -400, I think it is much better bet than you could find on any similar priced basketball team. That said you have to wait a long time to cash this ticket. August is the convention.

BigBollocks · 03-22-08, 05:52 PM

There has been some BIG, and I mean BIG, money put up on Hillary of late. On Matchbook alone, Obama was having prices of -600 with $100K to match behind it, and then someone would offer -500 with $80K, and so on until we've reached the price we have now.

A lot of pundits believe Obama still has some unrevealed skeletons in the closet, and that the Democratic party will fully back Hillary before it's all said and done. There's not a way in hell I'd back Obama at 1/3 or 1/4 at this moment. GL to all with political futures tickets

pavyracer · 03-22-08, 06:17 PM

The best bet is to put $10 on the field at +2200 instead of risking $1000 on Obama to win $200. You will sleep much better at night knowing you are risking only $10 and in case of a double assassination of both candidates you will cash big with your $10 bet.

SBR_John · 03-22-08, 07:24 PM

I could see Hillary quitting at any time. BTW, you get to put left over campaign cash in your pocket. The most profitable time for her to quit will be in about two weeks.

Back to the line.... If this was in-game betting on football the score would be 31- 20, Obama has the ball with 3 mins left and the Hill bill-erys are out of time outs. The line should be something like Obama -1200.

Bill Dozer · 03-22-08, 07:54 PM

MSM is pulling a Ron Paul on Obama lately. It seems Fox and CNN are for Clinton getting the popular vote.

HedgeHog · 03-22-08, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by Bill Dozer

MSM is pulling a Ron Paul on Obama lately. It seems Fox and CNN are for Clinton getting the popular vote.

Obama's preacher hasn't done him any favors. It's Obama's nomination to lose, and now the Super Dels have reason for concern in November. I have a dime on Obama +150 for the Dem nomination, but I'm far from celebrating.

SBR_John · 04-04-08, 08:08 AM

The limits are very low on these. It was a lot of work to get even a small slug down. The only way this losses is if yObama gets whacked. Id say Hillary packs it in the day after the Penn primary. She has no shot at the popular vote either.

pimike · 04-04-08, 08:26 AM

Better odds most likely win will be to take the Rep party to win in Nov. Hillary and Obama both have ruined their chances for DEMS to win the election, regardless of who gets nomnated.

Must say I am glad they are fighting!!!!!!!!!

BrentCrude · 04-04-08, 12:06 PM

Can you believe people worry about this crap who don't bet on it?

At least the people here at SBR are worried over who wins the election because they have a bet riding on it.Can you believe the cultist Kool Aid drinkers on both the democrat and republican sides who's life depends on their candidate winning.So many people need a certain candidate to win because it means their livlihood of earning a living in some capacity for the government might be affected by who wins.

Then you have the plain old idiots who are peons in society where they actually believe in the system and that by supporting a candidate,their lives will improve if they win the election.These are the passengers in short busses who get ringside seats at wrestling matches and scream at the ref that their guy is getting hit with foreign objects when the ref is turned away from the action.If you believe in politicians,you believe pro wrestling is real!!!

So much for the one man one vote dealie with the democratic party.They are constantly witch hunting that certain people in society are being treated like crap because of gender,race and sexual orientation when they themselves treat people like crap who come out to vote in higher percentages for one candidate and want to give the nomination to their favorite candidate who receives fewer votes and delegates.That's damn right insane!!!!!!I hope Hillary does steal the election where the blacks riot over it and all the blame is placed on the pantsuited pregnant papa sea monkey,Who from Dr.Seuse's Who ville lookalike and shaped Hillary.