Nba o/u theory

[dante1]

You nba guys, maybe I am full of crap, well I definitely am no doubt but what do you think about this theory. I like playing U in many NBA games especially when the total is low. Many times I think the line maker can't make the line low enough because I believe many more players lean to the over.. Thus I think you can get good value on the under many times.

Now I take it one step further and particularly like the under in the first half. I have noticed that the under in the first half is usually very close to half the full line total. I think that is an advantage for the under player because in most cases the last two minutes of the first half is not helter skelter like the last two minutes of the game, and even more important you seldom see crazy fouls at the end of the first half like you do at the end of the game and that naturally has a tendency to push the game over. How many times have you lost an under in the last 30 seconds because of crazy fouls. That won't happen in the first half.

What do you think?

[KingKolzig]

i agree. playing NBA unders is the way to go. if you only picked unders, not randomly but maybe 2-3 a night, you would win long term

[dlew2k]

this season thus far:

according to Cover's closing line
Over 282 46.77%
Unders 321 53.23%

[dante1]

i agree. playing NBA unders is the way to go. if you only picked unders, not randomly but maybe 2-3 a night, you would win long term

I think you have an advantage with half time unders in NBA and college. Not only the two I mentioned but a tie score at half doesn't cause more points to be scored. Tie at the end of the game when you are holding an U hurts big time.

[dante1]

this season thus far:

according to Cover's closing line
Over 282 46.77%
Unders 321 53.23%

I wouldn't doubt that U at half might even be a little better.

[illfuuptn]

If it's low, take the under. If it's high, take the over. Seems counterintuitive but it's nearly a winning strategy without any handicapping. Throw in capping and you've got yourself some 60% winners.

[dante1]

If it's low, take the under. If it's high, take the over. Seems counterintuitive but it's nearly a winning strategy without any handicapping. Throw in capping and you've got yourself some 60% winners.

Basically what I look at with just a couple other stats. Some success but a little more with the U's.

[SlickFazzer]

An interesting theory to explore...good thread guys.

[emoney]

Same could be said for any sport, not just NBA.

[dante1]

Same could be said for any sport, not just NBA.

Yes, but first half in NBA games I believe gives a bigger advantage than first half in NFL. I guess you can argue that point but it seems to me that NFL teams attempt to score with a 2 minute offense and usually both teams attempt to use that strategy. In the NBA one team may be attempting to score and the other to run out the clock. It may be insignificant and may not even be totally accurate I just intuitively feel it to be true.

[dante1]

An interesting theory to explore...good thread guys.

Thanks Slick, glad that I can contribute even if in a small way. Any and all ideas should be considered and shared between us.

[captrobey]

That is a good theory. I do always seem to lose on the overs.

[dante1]

That is a good theory. I do always seem to lose on the overs.

I think young players and less sophisticated players seem to play the over more than they should. One rationale is that you are never out of the game, however that really isn't true eg. attempt to cover a total of 48 in the NFL when the score is 17-10 in the 4th with 5 minutes remaining.

Speaking of NFL o/u strategy, we will need to adjust our cappin next year because of new OT rules. Books might be inclined to increase the average over number in many games albeit only a point or two. Just thinking here, I may be wrong.

[Jive]

73% of my NBA plays have been game unders or team total unders. I agree, dante. At least for me, unders are the way to go on totals.

[dante1]

73% of my NBA plays have been game unders or team total unders. I agree, dante. At least for me, unders are the way to go on totals.

Lately, no doubt. We have to be aware this can change.

[kingofmonash]

me to an unders player man , will be rooting for ya !!

[KingKolzig]

being able to watch the games drives the over-takers up too. ive seen a few threads where ppl cant watch NBA games in which they take the under, and love to watch games that they bet over. im the same way, every 3-pter is a dagger when i bet the under, so i dont watch

[thebestthereis]

i play maybe 50 totals all year, every single one is an under

[Le_Donk]

there are many games that go over the first half total but stay under the total for the game. ( like a team leads has a huge lead in the 2nd half and the 2nd unit struggles to put up points )
also saying that you lose a lot of unders because teams start to fouling late in the game is just selective perception.
The O/U is 124-152-4 for spreads between -3 to +3 this season. the average score in the 1st Half is 100.2 , 2nd Half only 96.2.
overall this season O/U: 494-562-12
avg score for 1st half this season is 100 , 2nd half only 96.8