Caracalla's Quattro Gatti Chat Thread

[scotty99dog99]

which data are available?

[caracalla]

lot of data;


data
Away
AW SCORE
Home
HM SCORE
AW LINE
O/U
AW MP
AW FG
AW FGA
AW FG%
AW 3P
AW 3PA
AW 3P%
AW FT
AW FTA
AW FT%
AW ORB
AW DRB
AW TRB
AW AST
AW STL
AW BLK
AW TOV
AW PF
AW PTS
Same for home

What does it mean
AW ORB
AW DRB
AW TRB
AW AST
AW STL
AW BLK
AW TOV
????

I don't find some data I needed, and I have to calculate them.

Thank very much for points! Appreciated

PS: probably (if ML studies OK, I'll buy College BB too)

[staf]

Where did you buy this info?

[elgreco]

I'm going to guess here:

ORB: Offensive Rebounds
DRB: Defensive Rebounds
AST: Assists
STL: Steals
BLK: Blocked shots

I'll have to think about the rest, but i'm having a crazy day at work.

Ciao

[caracalla]

Today ML
OklC -220 WichSt -240 OldDom -360

[caracalla]

I'm converting database in European format (date, decimal), adding missing data I needed
Work completed for 2004/5/6/7/8/9-10
Average 4 minutes each year: I miss 14 year, about 1 hour
Tomorrow I'll filter and I hope ......

[cricri86]

Today ML
OklC -220 WichSt -240 OldDom -360

Parlay oklahoma+Old Dominion 100 sbr to win 86

[justaguy]

Caracalla could you explain the moneyline bets a little more? Are you finding it profitable in these games to bet ATS or just on the ML?

[elgreco]

You'll be happy to know that I have fully recovered from the 0-7 streak that happened as soon as I doubled my unit size

[elgreco]

My girlfriend was wondering why I am so worried about missing Caracalla's picks. I explained to her that Caracalla is like a money tree. It grows fruit everyday. If I am busy and forget to pick the fruit, it withers and goes bad. So I have to pick the money tree every day.

[caracalla]

You'll be happy to know that I have fully recovered from the 0-7 streak that happened as soon as I doubled my unit size

Very happy. And so now you learned that unluck (SFIGA) exists!

[caracalla]

Caracalla could you explain the moneyline bets a little more? Are you finding it profitable in these games to bet ATS or just on the ML?

I'm studying ML: sometimes there are same games I bet ATS (yesterday Wichita), sometimes not (yesterday Okl and Old Dominion)

Naturally I can't explain

Today ML
Dal -260 UtSt -450 CleSt -500

[caracalla]

Some data about NBA till 1990-91 season

matches 23451
a/w winner
a 9202 0,392393%
h 14249 0,607607%

winner
dog 7152 0,304976%
fav 16299 0,695024%

With ATS
Dog 11574
Fav 11799
ATS unavail 78


Usefull? I don't know. So many data and so many new ideas!!!! I have to focus on the ML studies, otherwise I lose time

[caracalla]

OK. I’m studying general data:
1) Considering seasons from 1991 to 2008 (so cross-validation OK)
2) No filter
3) if I find anything interesting, I text it automatically on 2009-2010 season, and manually on season in progress

Found 1
A) 728W / 605 L
B) 2009-2010 season 55/29
C) 2010-11 so far 10/5

It seems very good

[caracalla]

I have to find time to pursue my studies on ML.
But I must make a copy of the DB and consider only the regular season, and then ...
It takes me much longer than expected!!
Be patient

[elgreco]

Be patient

We don't have time for this. You must quit your job. Tell your wife and kids it's time they fed themselves. We are your new kids now. Tommy can be your new wife. He brings (s)figa.

[Tommy_de1st]

What im bringing is a joy and zest of life

[elgreco]

[elgreco]

What the heck happened to Portland St. last night? When I went to bed, they were up something like 28-22 at halftime. I wake up this morning, and they lost 65-51. Washington scored 43 points in the second half!

[caracalla]

Vaffanculo PorSt!! Not Tommy for new wife, perhaps his avatar
"figa" = very beautiful girl (human=cunt); sfiga=unluck
ML today only Utah -330

[elgreco]

OK. I’m studying general data:
1) Considering seasons from 1991 to 2008 (so cross-validation OK)
2) No filter
3) if I find anything interesting, I text it automatically on 2009-2010 season, and manually on season in progress

Found 1
A) 728W / 605 L
B) 2009-2010 season 55/29
C) 2010-11 so far 10/5

It seems very good

ATS?

[caracalla]

Yes, ATS: according these data today SAC +12.5

[elgreco]

I'm taking SAC +13 with the last $20 in my SportsInteraction account

[elgreco]

I'm going to guess here:

ORB: Offensive Rebounds
DRB: Defensive Rebounds
AST: Assists
STL: Steals
BLK: Blocked shots

I'll have to think about the rest, but i'm having a crazy day at work.

Ciao

I'm still guessing. I'd like to see the numbers in context, but here goes anyway:

TRB: Team Rebounds (probably a sum of ORB and DRB)
TOV: Turnover something (don't know what the V means). A turnover is when you give the ball away to the other team without missing a shot. Either it was stolen from you, it went out of bounds, you couldn't control it and somehow the other team got it.

[caracalla]

Found1 final result
1991-2008 seasons 795W / 648L
2009-10 56/32
2010-11 14/7 (so far)

For 1991-2009 (automatically): raw data. I have to remove first 2-3 weeks (probably better starting all season 12/01, as I made manually on 2010-11 season), the last week and play off (I bet only during regular season)

Already bet on SAC? I don't, only with final stat data!

[caracalla]

Finished 2008-2009 NBA ML studies (12-01-2008 / 03-31-2009).
Created lot of Access Applications and Excel formulas to verify that games selected were the correct ones I had already chosen manually

Results better, even if not so good
212W /68 L +9,14 units

Now (this week end) I can export to others years and check result
First I'll chech all regular season games 1991-2007 as they were only one big season. If results good, I'll check 2009-2010 season
One problem for Americans. In DataBase, the Spread is opening line and we Europeans can take it without problems
Buona notte (good night)

[caracalla]

1991-2007 seasons (except 1998/99 : half season!!! Why?)

MONEY LINE
2986W / 1086L -269,69 units!!!

I have to check: some errors, bad filters entered or bad system!
VAFFANCULO

[elgreco]

[elgreco]

There was a players strike in 98-99, season didn't start till February.

[Tommy_de1st]

There was a players strike in 98-99, season didn't start till February.

Was it in 99? If you asked me , i'd say 5 years ago. Time flies

[elgreco]

don't remind me.

[elgreco]

Sac 100-95!! I should have taken the ML!!

[caracalla]

OK ML studies finished and, unfortunately, no error. So $$ dreams gone!! results
year 12 1 2 3 gain
1991 -2057 -799 -2533 632 -4757
1992 105 -1380 1076 -509 -708
1993 1873 -692 -657 1298 1822
1994 506 201 180 -2222 -1335
1995 -633 488 -282 2199 1772
1996 -993 1203 225 1603 2038
1997 1261 492 1227 2244 5224
1999 -1297 -1342 -73 111 -2601
2000 -3237 -103 -262 -126 -3728
2001 -131 -1515 -1614 -984 -4244
2002 -2612 -2398 -1214 -2262 -8486
2003 -3466 1448 522 -1314 -2810
2004 -239 -30 922 279 932
2005 -2778 -620 -1176 -1702 -6276
2006 -1189 -1 -1873 -608 -3671
2007 -288 -176 859 -536 -141
2008 1379 -1921 792 664 914
2009 1658 686 1340 861 4545
total -12138 -6459 -2541 -372 -21510

no trends year by year, no december signal, nothing!
Other new filter is good, but I can check it only last 3 seasons (I havn't data for previous seasons, and I can't derive them!).

Bye Bye $$$ from MONEYLINE

[caracalla]

With other filter (tested only past 3 seasons)
SA -430, NO -195, Flo -210, GeoMa -550, Pitts -385

[elgreco]

So, what happens on the ML if we fade the picks?