Who, Right Now, Are the Bubble Teams?

[ritehook]

And which ones will have their bubble burst tomorrow on Selection Sunday?

[turnip]

Use http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch as a guide. To me:

All their locks and auto-bids are in. (39).

They also don't mention ORU, Siena, Winthrop, Portland St., Cornell, UMBC, Belmont, American, Austin Peay, Mt. St. Mary's, Southland champion, SWAC champion, MEAC champion, WAC champion, A-10 champion, and BW champion. Those are 16 teams which puts 55 teams in the field and leaves 10 bubble slots. Bubble watch has 6 "should be in" teams. 4 of those will be in (Kentucky and the 3 Big 12 teams), which brings us to 59 . I think two of those (South Alabama, St. Joes) will not. That leaves 6 slots for the "work left to do" teams. The most likely 6 of those, in my opinion, are:

New Mexico
Villanova
VT
Oregon
Ohio St.
Arizona

With these teams just falling short:
Illinois St.
Syracuse
Ole Miss
St. Joes
South Alabama

There are some things that could happen to pop out more of those "work left to do" teams, including Kent St. losing today, or Wisconsin losing tomorrow.

[ritehook]

Use http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch as a guide. To me:

All their locks and auto-bids are in. (39).

They also don't mention ORU, Siena, Winthrop, Portland St., Cornell, UMBC, Belmont, American, Austin Peay, Mt. St. Mary's, Southland champion, SWAC champion, MEAC champion, WAC champion, A-10 champion, and BW champion. Those are 16 teams which puts 55 teams in the field and leaves 10 bubble slots. Bubble watch has 6 "should be in" teams. 4 of those will be in (Kentucky and the 3 Big 12 teams), which brings us to 59 . I think two of those (South Alabama, St. Joes) will not. That leaves 6 slots for the "work left to do" teams. The most likely 6 of those, in my opinion, are:

New Mexico
Villanova
VT
Oregon
Ohio St.
Arizona

With these teams just falling short:
Illinois St.
Syracuse
Ole Miss
St. Joes
South Alabama

There are some things that could happen to pop out more of those "work left to do" teams, including Kent St. losing today, or Wisconsin losing tomorrow.

Thanks. Both Arizona and Oregon should end up in the NIT

[rjt721]

Use http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch as a guide. To me:

All their locks and auto-bids are in. (39).

They also don't mention ORU, Siena, Winthrop, Portland St., Cornell, UMBC, Belmont, American, Austin Peay, Mt. St. Mary's, Southland champion, SWAC champion, MEAC champion, WAC champion, A-10 champion, and BW champion. Those are 16 teams which puts 55 teams in the field and leaves 10 bubble slots. Bubble watch has 6 "should be in" teams. 4 of those will be in (Kentucky and the 3 Big 12 teams), which brings us to 59 . I think two of those (South Alabama, St. Joes) will not. That leaves 6 slots for the "work left to do" teams. The most likely 6 of those, in my opinion, are:

New Mexico
Villanova
VT
Oregon
Ohio St.
Arizona

With these teams just falling short:
Illinois St.
Syracuse
Ole Miss
St. Joes
South Alabama

There are some things that could happen to pop out more of those "work left to do" teams, including Kent St. losing today, or Wisconsin losing tomorrow.

This is outdated. OSU's likely out after losing to Sparty, while St. Joe's is now in good shape after beating X again.

Here's the latest from Lunardi (not sure how he has OSU in):

NO. 1 SEEDS (in order)

• EAST North Carolina
• SOUTH Memphis
• WEST UCLA
• MIDWEST Tennessee
Notable: Three additional teams -- Kansas, Duke and Texas (in that order) -- remain in contention for No. 1 seeds.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15):

• American (Patriot League)
• Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
• Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
• Butler (Horizon League)
• Cornell (Ivy League)
• Davidson (Southern Conference)
• Drake (Missouri Valley)
• George Mason (CAA)
• Mount St. Mary's (Northeast)
• Oral Roberts (Summit League)
• Portland State (Big Sky)
• San Diego (West Coast)
• Siena (MAAC)
• Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
• Winthrop (Big South)

"LOCKS" (38 teams)

• Big East (7): Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Marquette, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
• Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M
• ACC (4): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (Fla.)
• Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
• Pac-10 (4): UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern California
• SEC (5): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Arkansas
• Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Saint Joseph's
• West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
• MAC (1): Kent State
• Mountain West (1): BYU, UNLV
• Conference USA (1): Memphis
Additional automatic qualifiers: 6 conferences
TOTAL SPOTS CLAIMED: 59

"BUBBLE" (12 teams for 6 spots)

• IN (6, in S-Curve order): South Alabama, Arizona, Illinois State, Oregon, Ohio State, Temple
BOLD = Last Four In

• OUT (6, in S-Curve order): Massachusetts, Virginia Tech, Villanova, Arizona State, VCU, New Mexico
BOLD = Last Four Out

[turnip]

This is outdated. OSU's likely out after losing to Sparty, while St. Joe's is now in good shape after beating X again.

I had factored those two games in, but I do always get 2 or 3 teams wrong and I respect your opinion. I think St. Joes is going to lose today to Temple too, which would keep them out in my opinion.

Also, fun fact: Joe Lunardi is a St. Joseph's alumnus

[rjt721]

I had factored those two games in, but I do always get 2 or 3 teams wrong and I respect your opinion. I think St. Joes is going to lose today to Temple too, which would keep them out in my opinion.

This is your list? I initially thought you took it from ESPN.

I disagree with OSU being in. Other than that, it's tough to separate the other teams because none are completely deserving. Personally, I'd swap out OSU, VT and NM with Illy State, S. 'Bama and St. Joe's. Also don't think Syracuse is even on the bubble.

Also, fun fact: Joe Lunardi is a St. Joseph's alumnus

Yeah, I know. Pretty funny (and ridiculous) that he has them in the "lock" category.

Nice job with your list.

[hoopster42]

tons of bubble teams, just watch espn gameday and they go over this constantly

[onlooker]

Tennessee just lost their #1 seed, after losing to Arkansas. If Kansas can win the Big 12. IMHO anyway.

[ryanXL977]

i think texas can get a number 1 whenthey beat KU

[turnip]

This is your list? I initially thought you took it from ESPN.

Yeah that's my list, sorry I wasn't clear. I was just using the ESPN Bubble Watch as a starting point.

Tennessee just lost their #1 seed, after losing to Arkansas. If Kansas can win the Big 12. IMHO anyway.

I agree..if Texas wins though, it will be very interesting

Edit:

Also it seems like I'm the only person in the world who thinks New Mexico belongs in..but they look like Air Force from 2 years ago. No one had Air Force in either, they had no top 50 wins, and a handful of mediocre losses..mountain west team too. I'm probably wrong though, we'll see.

[OLGC_Slayer]

Texas and Kansas deserves a number 1 seed over Tennessee.

[MJFtheGenius]

Joes is in

[ritehook]

turnip did have Oregon and Arizona in, I thought neither would make it, as outside of an excellent UCLA this is not a top conference this year, more like Big 10. To put 60% of the teams in seems a jest.

Arizona got in ahead of Az St only because it's a kind of "legacy" team. A "salute to Lute." No tems with this many losses should be in the Tournament.

Another "legacy" team that got in at the expense of some team more desrving is Kentucky.