Local Bookie Giving me 2.9 to 1 on Parlays...

OmgUrMom · 12-17-10, 05:00 PM

true odds are 3:1 so im not exactly sure you can.

sharpcat · 12-17-10, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by OmgUrMom

true odds are 3:1 so im not exactly sure you can.

This answer is wrong in every possible way

Brp27345 · 12-17-10, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

This answer is wrong in every possible way

so wats the answer sharpcat?

OmgUrMom · 12-17-10, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

This answer is wrong in every possible way

ok please tell me how can make a ton of money off betting those parlays?(obv its better than betting them at the usual odds)

im assuming they can't be correllated ect....

Brp27345 · 12-17-10, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by OmgUrMom

ok please tell me how can make a ton of money off betting those parlays?(obv its better than betting them at the usual odds) im assuming they can't be correllated ect....

Correlated meaning??? because I believe I can yes... for example betting same game lines and totals IS an option...

sharpcat · 12-17-10, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by OmgUrMom

ok please tell me how can make a ton of money off betting those parlays?(obv its better than betting them at the usual odds)

im assuming they can't be correllated ect....

Unlike most on these boards I do not care to just hand out information on a public forum but it is not that complicated to figure out.

A skilled player would know exactly how to exploit this much like Trixtrix exploit the SBR sportsbook.

ryanspeer2001 · 12-17-10, 05:16 PM

Sharpcat when you can please specify how it is not 3:1. I am interested as I know your on top of your stuff but I can't figure out elsewise how they would not be.

Brp27345 · 12-17-10, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Unlike most on these boards I do not care to just hand out information on a public forum but it is not that complicated to figure out. A skilled player would know exactly how to exploit this much like Trixtrix exploit the SBR sportsbook.

Please man? I would really appreciate the help...

OmgUrMom · 12-17-10, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Unlike most on these boards I do not care to just hand out information on a public forum but it is not that complicated to figure out.

A skilled player would know exactly how to exploit this much like Trixtrix exploit the SBR sportsbook.

why bother making or replying to betting strategy threads if you are not willing to share your knowledge?

ohhhhhh i get it. You are open to receiving but not giving

Brp27345 · 12-17-10, 05:31 PM

Can anyone help me here... I can bet correlated lines... and I am getting 2.9 to 1... any way to take advantage long term over this shit...

Please!

I promise me beating my local won't harm you in any way!

OmgUrMom · 12-17-10, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Unlike most on these boards I do not care to just hand out information on a public forum but it is not that complicated to figure out.

A skilled player would know exactly how to exploitthis much like Trixtrix exploit the SBR sportsbook.

but that wouldn't be you would it?

Brp27345 · 12-17-10, 05:43 PM

Omg can we stop the fighting back and forth and come someone help me out please... someone who hasn't already posted in this thread I guess...

jjgold · 12-17-10, 05:45 PM

you dont

parlays are a bookies dream

Son no easy way

Flight · 12-17-10, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by ryanspeer2001

Sharpcat when you can please specify how it is not 3:1. I am interested as I know your on top of your stuff but I can't figure out elsewise how they would not be.

To figure out the odds, treat each leg as separate bets and then just roll them into each other in series.

Example: $110 bet at -110

1st leg: $110 wins $100
2nd leg: Now you have $210, risk that at -110, wins $190.91

That is $290.91 in winnings. So the win/risk ratio is $290.91/$110 = 2.64 or +264 US odds.

Example 2: $100 bet at Even odds, no vigorish
1st leg: $100 wins $100
2nd leg: Now you have $200, risk that at even wins 200.

$300 in winnings, win/risk is $300/$100 = 3.0 or +300 US Odds. This means no-vig odds are +300. This makes sense as each leg has implied 50% probablity, with odds to win both of 25%.

Break even rate on +264 is 27.47%. Square root of .2747 is .524 or 52.4%, so you have to find legs that have 52.4% chance of winning if you want to use parlays (although they are useful for other things).

If offered +290 odds, you are still below mathematical odds, but not by much. Break even rate is 25.64% implying each leg must win at 50.6%. This means each leg is being offered at -102.6, aka reduced juice.

I'll leave it up to you to figure out how to beat a -102.6 line.

Flight · 12-17-10, 08:42 PM

Another way to look at the proposition is from the bookmaker's perspective. If he were to take bets on all 4 possible combinations of a given 2-team parlay, he would make money, but the question is "how much" in terms of percent. This is referred to as theoretical hold. For example, on straight wagers a bookmaker takes $220 in action, pays out $210 and holds $10. $10/$220 = 4.545% (standard vig we are all familiar with).

Hold on +264 parlay is $36 / $400 = 9%
Hold on +290 parlay is $10 / $400 = 2.5%

ryanspeer2001 · 12-17-10, 08:48 PM

Hey flight thank you buddy for the intelligent responses. I appreciate it brother.

Rio DiNero · 12-17-10, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by Brp27345

Can anyone help me here... I can bet correlated lines... and I am getting 2.9 to 1... any way to take advantage long term over this shit...

Please!

I promise me beating my local won't harm you in any way!

chase hardy · 12-17-10, 11:28 PM

hope you figure it out man. I dont know what to tell you!

OmgUrMom · 12-18-10, 02:44 AM

great post flight

ZetaPsi808 · 12-18-10, 03:12 AM

wow this guy sharpcat is a real dick!

flight nice work pal!