2 Big VALUE Dogs for Exhibition Bases On Thursday!

LT Profits · 03-12-08, 10:12 PM

Has any +150+ dog lost this exhibition season? It seems you always win these!

donjuan · 03-12-08, 10:13 PM

No team should be -170 favorites!

That line of reasoning is astounding. It's almost as good as the take +3500 on an NBA team any time you see it.

MadCapper · 03-12-08, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Has any +150+ dog lost this exhibition season? It seems you always win these!

HAHA!

I've hit all my +150 or more.

Lost the last one....but that was "just" +142

LT Profits · 03-12-08, 10:20 PM

donjuan,

His point was no team should be -170 during EXHIBITION season, and I would tend to agree with that. These games are closer to true coin flips than regular games.

MadCapper · 03-12-08, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

That line of reasoning is astounding. It's almost as good as the take +3500 on an NBA team any time you see it.

apples and oranges.

this is ex-bases where the 2 biggest public teams are huge favorites with arguably their worst starting pitchers going at least few innings. Or at least trying....

these teams dont go all out.

starters dont play full games.

donjuan · 03-12-08, 10:23 PM

I know what his point was. It must have been super-squares who bet down the line on Pinnacle from -170 to -190 on a Yankees game a few days back, while they were still at -170 at SIA (arbable with Pinny) at close. Dogs have all the value all the time, duh.

LT Profits · 03-12-08, 10:34 PM

Let me rephrase that in no uncertain terms.....

Anyone that lays more than -150 in an exhibition game is a fool!

Now I don't know if the Yankees won that game at -190, but even if they did, there is no way you would profit making that same bet 100 times.

And yes, sizeable dogs ALWAYS have the value in pre-season.

Now, if you are an arber that scalped the game, then that is fine and valid but off topic for this thread.

ChuteBoxe · 03-12-08, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Let me rephrase that in no uncertain terms.....

Anyone that lays more than -150 in an exhibition game is a fool!

Now I don't know if the Yankees won that game at -190, but even if they did, there is no way you would profit making that same bet 100 times.

And yes, sizeable dogs ALWAYS have the value in pre-season.

Now, if you are an arber that scalped the game, then that is fine and valid but off topic for this thread.

Couldn't have explained it better myself LT. For example, I layed three bets that teetered with the -150 spring training rule, one at -150, one at -145, and one at -140. All three looked great on paper, from the starters, to the bench players, to the bullpen, to past matchups, to spring stats, to regular season stats. With all that said, I am 1-2 on any bet over -140. They're just not worth it on exibition games.

donjuan · 03-13-08, 01:15 AM

Let me rephrase that in no uncertain terms.....

Anyone that lays more than -150 in an exhibition game is a fool!

Now I don't know if the Yankees won that game at -190, but even if they did, there is no way you would profit making that same bet 100 times.

And yes, sizeable dogs ALWAYS have the value in pre-season.

Now, if you are an arber that scalped the game, then that is fine and valid but off topic for this thread.

I'm going to respectfully disagree here. The people moving the line at Pinnacle but not at SIA are not idiots. While it is preseason, you would need to look at the fact that the Yankees have excellent AAA and AA teams so they are certainly not hurt by the fact that their starters play/pitch only a few innings.

LT Profits · 03-13-08, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

I'm going to respectfully disagree here. The people moving the line at Pinnacle but not at SIA are not idiots. While it is preseason, you would need to look at the fact that the Yankees have excellent AAA and AA teams so they are certainly not hurt by the fact that their starters play/pitch only a few innings.

Wow, that may be the most respectful post I've ever seen you make.

Still, I stand by my statement that even taking the mighty Yankees at -190 is -EV long-term in pre-season. Even if their minor leaguers are good, their opponents tend to keep their regulars in an inning or two longer against the Yankees just because it is the Yankees.

billmunny · 03-13-08, 01:47 AM

You do all know that BILLY CRYSTAL has been given a one-day contract with the Yankees and will be playing in this game tomorrow, right?

Gotta say that I can't exactly see the Pirates going all out against a man who has hosted the Oscars eight times.

Edit: Granted, he'll probably just pinch hit or something; but it's worth knowing when looking at this game. Also, this is apparently not unprecedented-- Tom Selleck pinch hit for the Tigers in a preseason game in '91 and the Tigers lost 6-4. I'm just not sure if/how this little bit of information should be factored into any wager.

donjuan · 03-13-08, 01:51 AM

Still, I stand by my statement that even taking the mighty Yankees at -190 is -EV long-term in pre-season. Even if their minor leaguers are good, their opponents tend to keep their regulars in an inning or two longer against the Yankees just because it is the Yankees.

Not actually saying -190 is value, but rather that -170 is. Your point still stands and is taken, though. I didn't bet the Yankees at -170 that day, but my point is that I wouldn't just blindly bet all dogs over a certain number, even in preseason.

LT Profits · 03-13-08, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by billmunny

Granted, he'll probably just pinch hit or something

He will be the DH (Designated Hebrew)

ChuteBoxe · 03-13-08, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

He will be the DH (Designated Hebrew)

treece · 03-13-08, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by billmunny

You do all know that BILLY CRYSTAL has been given a one-day contract with the Yankees and will be playing in this game tomorrow, right?

Gotta say that I can't exactly see the Pirates going all out against a man who has hosted the Oscars eight times.

Edit: Granted, he'll probably just pinch hit or something; but it's worth knowing when looking at this game. Also, this is apparently not unprecedented-- Tom Selleck pinch hit for the Tigers in a preseason game in '91 and the Tigers lost 6-4. I'm just not sure if/how this little bit of information should be factored into any wager.

i factor it as an easy out.

billmunny · 03-13-08, 03:06 AM

Originally posted by treece

i factor it as an easy out.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Crystal got a base hit (provided there's no one on when he comes to the plate...)

donjuan · 03-13-08, 03:10 AM

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Crystal got a base hit (provided there's no one on when he comes to the plate...)

Will Billy Crystal make contact with any pitches during his At Bats during the New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates game on March 13, 2008?

(Billy Crystal must have an official At-Bat for wager to have action. Foul balls and Tipped balls count as contact. Max $50. Singles only. No Parlays)

Yes +105
No -225

Will Billy Crystal record a hit during the New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates game on March 13, 2008?

(Billy Crystal must have an official At-Bat for wager to have action. Max $50. Singles Only. No Parlays)

Yes +400
No -1350

MadCapper · 03-13-08, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

I'm going to respectfully disagree here. The people moving the line at Pinnacle but not at SIA are not idiots. While it is preseason, you would need to look at the fact that the Yankees have excellent AAA and AA teams so they are certainly not hurt by the fact that their starters play/pitch only a few innings.

That being said, the Pirates and Rays farm hands have more to play for and show in these games. They actually have a chance to make the real club this year. They will always give 100%. I can see a triple A pirate outfielder showing a lot more effort than Bobby Abreu or Johnny Damon in these games.

Theres a reason the Yankees usually go about .500 in ex-bases.

ronald · 03-13-08, 09:52 AM

I'm following this play today as well. I took both TB and PIT.

MadCapper · 03-13-08, 10:36 AM

Billy Crystal is leading off and will get TWO at bats.

mofome · 03-13-08, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

I'm going to respectfully disagree here. The people moving the line at Pinnacle but not at SIA are not idiots. While it is preseason, you would need to look at the fact that the Yankees have excellent AAA and AA teams so they are certainly not hurt by the fact that their starters play/pitch only a few innings.

The yanks prospects aren't nearly as talented as those of the drays but they were a considerable fav the other day over the rays.

trytrytry · 03-13-08, 12:05 PM

thanks **

treece · 03-13-08, 03:05 PM

good job **. yanks lost, red sox just tied it up 2-2(fk). no matter what happens in the red sox game we're still up.

MadCapper · 03-13-08, 04:19 PM

2-0

2 huge dogs.

congrats to all!

Arnold · 03-13-08, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by MadCapper

2-0

2 huge dogs.

congrats to all!

Didn't the Red Sox game ended in a tie?

gizmo2431 · 03-13-08, 05:24 PM

yeah, 1 win, 1 push... i played them cause i agreed with the fact that nobody should be -170 in exhibition and i saw some value in it, thanks for the plays **... turned out good!

MadCapper · 03-13-08, 05:50 PM

yes tie.

1-0-1

nice work

jjgold · 03-13-08, 06:06 PM

trytrytry · 03-13-08, 07:34 PM

super score