Buying and selling points

**Dead Money** · 02-18-06, 09:21 PM

Buy...never

Sell...~60%

**slacker00** · 02-18-06, 10:43 PM

Illusion, when do you sell points?

Typically, buying/selling points isn't getting much value in itself. This is because the book is making money both ways.

Which books are you using when you're selling points? Maybe you're getting a good deal.

**imgv94** · 02-18-06, 10:49 PM

There's huge value if you love a team and they are -4.5 -106 and you can
adjust it to -5.5 and get +110.. I would say do rarely though cause
it just takes one fvck up to mess up the kool-aid.

**Dark Horse** · 02-18-06, 11:19 PM

Football. Math supports buying 1/2 pt on and off 3 (even a full point through 3), and on and off 7. For totals buy 1/2 pt on and off 37 only. Forget the rest. (check out the book 'win more, lose less' for more info).

Don't have numbers on basketball. For sides only, you get a free half pt if you play at Skybook. Could be good for middling as well.

**Illusion** · 02-19-06, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

Which books are you using when you're selling points?

I sell them at Pinnacle slacker.

**imgv94** · 02-19-06, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

I sell them at Pinnacle slacker.

Isn't Pinnacle the only one that offers that??

**raiders72001** · 02-19-06, 12:28 AM

img- Pinnacle has drop down boxes that you can sell and other books set a price such as 5 cents per 1/2 point. They only go up to a certain spread since getting 5 cents for 1/2 point at a line of 23 would be player advantage.

**BigDaddy** · 02-19-06, 01:07 AM

Pinnacle's Drop down box is the best!

**pags11** · 02-19-06, 01:25 AM

bigdaddy...I agree...this has made pinnacle get even more of my college hoops action...

I sell 5x more than I buy...did by a half point and laid 3 (-114) with Stanford tommorrow...just a hunch...

**turbobets** · 02-19-06, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Don't have numbers on basketball.

Posted my link to Half Point Chart for NFL, NCAA Basketball, NBA and College Hoops games in Promotion Forum.

**Dark Horse** · 02-19-06, 02:37 AM

Thanks. Those NFL numbers are very different than the ones I have. A push percentage of 7.9% on a 14-pt spread? How far do those numbers go back?

**Dark Horse** · 02-19-06, 03:53 AM

If those NBA numbers are right, the half pt on spreads 16 or lower is worth an average of 3.7%. Is that worth it?

Skybook offers a free half point, but at -110. For every 100 bet, the winner gets 90.90.
Pinnacle offers the same bet at -105. For every 100 bet, the winner gets 95.24.

The 3.7% on a 100 wager is 3.70. Somebody may want to check the math, but it looks like the Skybook offer ends up at 94.60 (90.90 +3.70); still below the 95.24 at Pinnacle.

So the free 1/2 pt at Skybook may only be interesting for middles. Anybody feel like doing the numbers?

:0000024:
This weekend...

**turbobets** · 02-19-06, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Thanks. Those NFL numbers are very different than the ones I have. A push percentage of 7.9% on a 14-pt spread? How far do those numbers go back?

NFL - 20 yrs
NCAA Football - 10 yrs
NBA - 10 yrs
College Hoops - 5 yrs

The sample sizes are so small in football for the higher pointspreads (over 7.0) that I would not put a lot of stock in them.

**turbobets** · 02-21-06, 01:27 AM

I just checked my numbers and I actually used 15 years of data for the NFL chart.

**bigboydan** · 02-21-06, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by Illusion

What percentage of your plays do you buy or sell points. Lately I have been selling alot of points.

i'd sell them pending what other books might have the line at.

**Ganchrow** · 02-21-06, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

If those NBA numbers are right, the half pt on spreads 16 or lower is worth an average of 3.7%.

Actually, the chart gives a weighted average of 3.9% (total pushes for line <= 16 points / total games for line <= 16 points = 246 / 6,288 ≈ 3.9%).

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Skybook offers a free half point, but at -110. For every 100 bet, the winner gets 90.90.
Pinnacle offers the same bet at -105. For every 100 bet, the winner gets 95.24.

The 3.7% on a 100 wager is 3.70. Somebody may want to check the math, but it looks like the Skybook offer ends up at 94.60 (90.90 +3.70); still below the 95.24 at Pinnacle.

Your mathematical reasoning here is flawed. If you're trying to increase expected value by 3.7% you can't just add 3.7 to the "to win" quantity as this is only realized with 50% frequency. By doing this you're only increasing your expectancy by 3.7%/2 = 1.85%.

Using your 3.7% figure, and moving from a spread of +3 to +3½, we'd hit the 3 3.7% of the time. This means that (instead of winning 48.15% of the time, pushing 3.7%, and losing 48.15% of the time) we'd win 48.15% + 3.70% = 51.85% of the time and lose 48.15% of the time. The expected value of that at -110 is -48.15% + 51.85% * 100/110 ≈ -1.01%. This is equivalent to a lineset of about -102.1.

Using your 3.7% figure, and moving from a spread of +2½ to +3, we'd hit the 3 3.7% of the time. This means that (instead of winning 50% of the time and losing 50% of the time) we'd win 50% of the time, push 3.7% of the time, and lose 46.3% of the time. This means we'd win 51.92% of the time we didn't push and lose 48.08% of the time we didn't push. The expected value of that at -110 is -48.08% + 51.92% * 100/110 ≈ -0.88%. This is equivalent to a lineset of about -101.8.

So assuming a push rate of 3.7%, the free half point at -110 is considerably better than no free half point at -105.