What do you guys see from Jeremy Guthrie this season?

[MadCapper]

?

[Deuce]

He will be solid on a bullshit team.

[mofome]

9-13
4.21 era
1.31 whip

[LLXC]

He really struggled in the 2nd half of last year so mofome's numbers seem pretty accurate

[Deke101]

9-13
4.21 era
1.31 whip

Hey what is WHIP? I could never figure it out last season?

[MadCapper]

walks + hits to IP

[Deke101]

So obviously the lower it is, the better. What is the best WHIP in the league? And what is average?

[Willie Bee]

Orioles go 10-20 in his 30 starts.

[mofome]

So obviously the lower it is, the better. What is the best WHIP in the league? And what is average?

1.30 is a good whip, especially in the al.

[thegreatdiatchi]

I'm with Mo on this one. Not that he will be awful but I really don't see him taking the next step forward on such a shit team. Even if he does pitch well in his games the bullpen will likely give him alot of no decisions.

[The HG]

Because of his style, I do think he's going to run into trouble again playing in hitters' park in the summer dog days.

But I see him as one of those guys who gets a disproportionate benefit from pitching in supposedly pitcher-friendly parks. If you look over his game log from last year, you can see that his second-half swoon was due at least in part to facing tough lineups in tough parks throughout August, not necessarily because his initial success was a mirage.

Look at his season-long numbers in the "pitcher-friendly" parks he pitched in: games @ Wash, LAA, Seattle, Oakland, and San Diego. Each time out he had a good start.

I think that he will likely be a good bet in games at pitchers' parks this year, especially on the 5-inning line, and especially if Baltimore is losing a lot and getting big underdog lines.

[Willie Bee]

But I see him as one of those guys who gets a disproportionate benefit from pitching in supposedly pitcher-friendly parks. If you look over his game log from last year, you can see that his second-half swoon was due at least in part to facing tough lineups in tough parks throughout August, not necessarily because his initial success was a mirage.

Look at his season-long numbers in the "pitcher-friendly" parks he pitched in: games @ Wash, LAA, Seattle, Oakland, and San Diego. Each time out he had a good start.

Don't really buy this argument, HG. First off, he faced New York, Boston and Toronto on the road in August, certainly some tough lineups but he'd better get used to pitching in those houses since those are division teams. He had Seattle -- not exactly a world beater of an offense at home -- and if he can't learn to pitch in Baltimore then he's also in big trouble.

San Diego isn't even on Baltimore's schedule this year, so if he pitches at Petco in 2008 then Guthrie and the rest of the O's have shocked the world. With Baltimore just playing three in DC, his turn might not even come up in the rotation. The Orioles do have six games each in Seattle and Anaheim, so he should get one start, and maybe two, in each locale. Then again, the rotation might mean he gets none. And even though Angel Stadium is thought of as being a pitcher-friendly park, that's a borderline misconception to me. The Halos might not hit a lot of home runs, but they still score a lot of runs and Angel Stadium has actually favored the hitters of late (if you put much stock in park factors).

[The HG]

Don't really buy this argument, HG. First off, he faced New York, Boston and Toronto on the road in August, certainly some tough lineups but he'd better get used to pitching in those houses since those are division teams. He had Seattle -- not exactly a world beater of an offense at home -- and if he can't learn to pitch in Baltimore then he's also in big trouble.

San Diego isn't even on Baltimore's schedule this year, so if he pitches at Petco in 2008 then Guthrie and the rest of the O's have shocked the world. With Baltimore just playing three in DC, his turn might not even come up in the rotation. The Orioles do have six games each in Seattle and Anaheim, so he should get one start, and maybe two, in each locale. Then again, the rotation might mean he gets none. And even though Angel Stadium is thought of as being a pitcher-friendly park, that's a borderline misconception to me. The Halos might not hit a lot of home runs, but they still score a lot of runs and Angel Stadium has actually favored the hitters of late (if you put much stock in park factors).

Not entirely digging this logic hombre. First of all Seattle had a fine offense last year, Vidro, Suzuki, Johjima, etc etc, and it was 100 degrees for that game. I admit Guthrie will very likely get shelled when it gets into the thick of the summer, but there are a lot of guys who tend to do a lot better in the cooler months and in non-hitters parks. I don't have the numbers on me offhand so I could be wrong, but my impression is Guthrie is a fly-ball pitcher, in the same vein as Jered Weaver, guys like that. Watch, the O's will be a good 5-inning bet with Guthrie starting when on the road in pitchers' parks and in the early months, assuming he doesn't develop arms problems and weather patterns stay relatively normal.

[Willie Bee]

Not entirely digging this logic hombre. First of all Seattle had a fine offense last year...

Yes, so fine an offense that they managed to finish in the middle of the AL pack in runs scored, on-base and slugging, in the second half of the AL in homers and steals, and dead last in the AL in drawing walks.

...and it was 100 degrees for that game.

According to the Farmer's Almanac, it was 100° at the airport, but I've been to Baltimore and didn't really see a lot of baseball being played at the airport. Rest of the city's temps for Aug 8, 2007 (assuming that's the day you're referring to), were in the 92°-97° range. Whatever it was, it was the same temp for Felix Hernandez who pitched for the Mariners and he made it into the seventh inning. If Guthrie can't handle the Baltimore heat and humidity, then he should most definitely think about Colorado or Toronto when he's a free agent. And seriously, HG, do you think you're going to get much sympathy about it being hot from me down here in South Texas?

I admit Guthrie will very likely get shelled when it gets into the thick of the summer, but there are a lot of guys who tend to do a lot better in the cooler months and in non-hitters parks. I don't have the numbers on me offhand so I could be wrong, but my impression is Guthrie is a fly-ball pitcher, in the same vein as Jered Weaver, guys like that. Watch, the O's will be a good 5-inning bet with Guthrie starting when on the road in pitchers' parks and in the early months, assuming he doesn't develop arms problems and weather patterns stay relatively normal.

The past two seasons, Guthrie was a 50% ground ball pitcher (2006) and 42.5% ground ball pitcher (2007). The younger Weaver over the same two seasons recorded 30% and 35.6% stats respectively. Guthrie actually rates about even and average in the fly ball/ground ball ratios.

Hope you cash on those 5-inning wagers and would love to hear how that works out.