Who is ready for a Patriots let down Thursday?

**Limey** · 11-29-10, 10:27 AM

I'm not sure I can agree that the answer to the question I posed is 'Yes', unless we are looking at it in very different ways. The large majority of NFL results don't fall particularly close to the result 'predicted' by the spread, certainly not close enough that getting half a point here or even two points there will make any difference to the result of a wager.

Teasing is interesting of course, though you have to hit two or more games to win a teaser. But how is it indicative of the accuracy of the market to say, essentially, that if you add six points then it's really accurate.

I'm not sure I'm disagreeing with you as I probably don't know what you are seeking to achieve with these numbers, but it seems to me that a market whose 'predictions' are significantly wrong for a large majority of games can't be all that accurate.

**statnerds** · 11-29-10, 04:13 PM

1. How are you defining a "large majority" of NFL games?

2. What constitutes "not particularly close" to the closing number?

It will also change with what the spread is. Cause when we look at a Key Number like 3, 9.79% of the games land on the fave winning by 3. I don't have the numbers in front of me to tell you what teasing 6 points either would do.

I guess we cannot proceed until I get a more firm definition of the criteria you are applying. Was using 6 cause of Wong Teasers and it is one score from spread, as long as that score is a TD.

What does it tell you that 5Dimes will give you +100 on a 2tm 6ptr, but shade their lines to avoid getting Wonged?

**D3 Mighty Ducks** · 11-29-10, 04:14 PM

Is it Thursday yet? I'm still waiting for that Patriot letdown

**statnerds** · 11-30-10, 08:14 AM

Said I wouldn't do any work, but if the half point calculator is to be believed, over 22% of games lined with 3 end with the fave winning between 1-6 points.

**G's pks** · 11-30-10, 09:03 AM

What do all the threads this guy starts have in common? They are about 0-20

combined!

**slacker00** · 11-30-10, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

What do all the threads this guy starts have in common? They are about 0-20

combined!

It's sad when people start seeking out someone's picks purely to fade them.

**G's pks** · 11-30-10, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

It's sad when people start seeking out someone's picks purely to fade them.

A couple have asked others not to scare this one away...he is getting everyones X-mas presents paid for... but also likes to post picks after the fact so be careful...

**Limey** · 11-30-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

1. How are you defining a "large majority" of NFL games?

2. What constitutes "not particularly close" to the closing number?

It will also change with what the spread is. Cause when we look at a Key Number like 3, 9.79% of the games land on the fave winning by 3. I don't have the numbers in front of me to tell you what teasing 6 points either would do.

I guess we cannot proceed until I get a more firm definition of the criteria you are applying. Was using 6 cause of Wong Teasers and it is one score from spread, as long as that score is a TD.

What does it tell you that 5Dimes will give you +100 on a 2tm 6ptr, but shade their lines to avoid getting Wonged?

According to a handicapping book I read recently, over fifteen season the median difference between the actual score versus the point-spread was 8.5 points, so two scores. So in more than half of games, the spread is off by more (sometimes considerably more) than that. I occasionally check a week's NFL results in this manner and the spreads are indeed 'off' by miles in many, many games.

I guess it depends what you're looking for. For me, these figures show that the market is frequently wrong (San Diego as underdogs at Indy on Sunday for instance, a truly odd spread) and so my approach to NFL betting is to try to identify the games where it is wrong as accurately as I can. It's not easy of course, but I enjoy trying to work out the puzzle. Other people, I know, take a wholly different approach and try to use the market itself to identify bets in various ways. Each to their own I guess.

**bretb27** · 11-30-10, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

They gave up 400+ yards again. Or were the first 54 minutes of the game garbage time again?

It's funny, when it was 24-24, Brady had played a perfect to that point and the Pats were winning TO battle 1-0 and were still tied with a 2-8 team.

Should change the name from SBR to MMQB, for all the Monday Morning Quarterbacks. I love that it was so close and in doubt that none of you posted til NE went up 21.

Do you really think that

A. Brady will perfect every game

B. They will go +2 turnovers or better every game?

I really hate giving out free information, but you clueless fukks are too fukkin stoopit to do anything with it anyway. Teams that win ITS win SU 69% of the time and win ATS 64% of the time. So, when you realize the Pats have been outgained 7 of 11 games this season, what should their record be? I'm just trying to save you money and frustration when this team doesn't win the Superbowl. They have played 3 perfect games in a row, absolutely perfect. And if Manning goes for OT instead of the win, Colts may have won the game. They were in FG range, but Peyton gets greedy and goes for the win. I guess conservative isn't his style. No one is doubting they can score. The problem is they can't keep other teams from scoring. Was there any reason for that game to be a 7 point game with 6 minutes to play? Not if this 8-2 team was as dominant as everyone thinks and says playing a 2-8 team with a BACK-UP QB...

To just ignore their defense is plain retarded.

And to bash me, on a play that the market said had a FVL of 6.5, based on the result of one game is to bash the entire market. You are basically saying you are smarter than the market. You are saying that the market is inefficient, despite the opinions of 10s of 1,000s of speculators. Furthermore, you are saying that you are so much smarter than the market that you wait until after results are known to prove it. Additionally, even with a back-up QB playing, the line was less than a TD. What does that tell you? It either tells you the true value of the Pats team, or it just makes you believe even more fervently that you are smarter than the market. I wonder which one it is.

How is it that you know soooo much more than me, and everyone else for that matter, but you just don't win any money? haha. if this is truly your job, may god help you.

**statnerds** · 11-30-10, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Limey

For me, these figures show that the market is frequently wrong (San Diego as underdogs at Indy on Sunday for instance, a truly odd spread) and so my approach to NFL betting is to try to identify the games where it is wrong as accurately as I can.

Was the market wrong? I will stick with my assertion that you cannot judge the market on one game and you most certainly cannot judge a line by the outcome of the contest.

1. You cannot handicap turnovers.

2. Apply each team's YPPT avg to the actual game stats and see what the score should have been. Indy gained more yards than SD. Which leads us back to the generation of points being, to a point, random.

**G's pks** · 11-30-10, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

Was the market wrong? I will stick with my assertion that you cannot judge the market on one game and you most certainly cannot judge a line by the outcome of the contest.

1. You cannot handicap turnovers.

2. Apply each team's YPPT avg to the actual game stats and see what the score should have been. Indy gained more yards than SD. Which leads us back to the generation of points being, to a point, random.

Yppt is just one stat...no wonder why you lose so much!

**uhuhahah** · 11-30-10, 07:49 PM

NE will do 7 tds this game.
NE 49 - Jets 21

**CaptainPrice** · 11-30-10, 08:50 PM

Jets win too close
i agree PATS

**KenardRage** · 11-30-10, 09:32 PM

patriots will beat the jets hands down

**Bogart45** · 12-01-10, 02:46 AM

Is this thread still alive? Man this guy likes to type a bunch of nonesense!

BTW, yes you CAN cap turnovers to an extent, but it must be too simple for you to figure out and/or accept. You seem only to like to create a bunch of nonesensical rationalizations out of thin air to justify your predetermined beliefs.

And BTW #2, Jets +3.5 at NE this week. Not a letdown, just what I believe to be the high percentage play here.

**G's pks** · 12-01-10, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by Bogart45

Is this thread still alive? Man this guy likes to type a bunch of nonesense!

BTW, yes you CAN cap turnovers to an extent, but it must be too simple for you to figure out and/or accept. You seem only to like to create a bunch of nonesensical rationalizations out of thin air to justify your predetermined beliefs.

And BTW #2, Jets +3.5 at NE this week. Not a letdown, just what I believe to be the high percentage play here.

Yes sadly enough he kept it going...just one of several losing threads for him...

**TheLock** · 12-01-10, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

What do all the threads this guy starts have in common? They are about 0-20

combined!

This coming from a guy who buys 5 pts off the spread in NFL. Deny it and I'll dig up the thread.

**statnerds** · 12-01-10, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

Yppt is just one stat...no wonder why you lose so much!

At this point I would elaborate on the importance of YPPT, but alas, I cannot. There is no reason for me to explain to you exactly what that one stat tells you, or at least should tell you.

**G's pks** · 12-01-10, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by TheLock

This coming from a guy who buys 5 pts off the spread in NFL. Deny it and I'll dig up the thread.

dig up the thread....

This is fun...

another one that has not hit a winner in two years!

**statnerds** · 12-01-10, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Bogart45

Is this thread still alive? Man this guy likes to type a bunch of nonesense!

BTW, yes you CAN cap turnovers to an extent, but it must be too simple for you to figure out and/or accept. You seem only to like to create a bunch of nonesensical rationalizations out of thin air to justify your predetermined beliefs.

Here is your chance Rock Star.

I won't even request the entire card.

Pick any 8 games you want this week and forecast the TOs.

C'mon cool guy, shut me up with your amazing prognostication skills.

That or STFU, whichever is easier.

**G's pks** · 12-01-10, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

At this point I would elaborate on the importance of YPPT, but alas, I cannot. There is no reason for me to explain to you exactly what that one stat tells you, or at least should tell you.

Oh brother... pull your hands out of your pants... it is no big deal and yards per point and their results is just a single indicator and is not to be relied on its own...your lousy picks have more than proved that... What are you about 3-30?

**G's pks** · 12-01-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by Bogart45

Is this thread still alive? Man this guy likes to type a bunch of nonesense!

BTW, yes you CAN cap turnovers to an extent, but it must be too simple for you to figure out and/or accept. You seem only to like to create a bunch of nonesensical rationalizations out of thin air to justify your predetermined beliefs.

And BTW #2, Jets +3.5 at NE this week. Not a letdown, just what I believe to be the high percentage play here.

He is most known for typing three to four paragraphs of nonsense where he claims to have the upper hand on the books...who by the way love this guy! He must have reloaded three or four times during the football season alone!

**dinaro7** · 12-01-10, 04:59 PM

pats win easy

**statnerds** · 12-01-10, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

He is most known for typing three to four paragraphs of nonsense where he claims to have the upper hand on the books...who by the way love this guy! He must have reloaded three or four times during the football season alone!

What we call this, or at least those in the professional field of psychology, is projection. Based on your misguided attempt to deceive posters again by claiming I said things I never did, it must be assumed that you are having another tough NFL season. You must have been forced to reload.

Unlike you, I have a BR, I have money management skills and I win.

**G's pks** · 12-01-10, 10:44 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

What we call this, or at least those in the professional field of psychology, is projection. I know this because I see my shrink 3 times a week. What I am not losing gambling he takes! Based on my misguided plays and my attempt to deceive posters again by claiming bets after the fact. I said things I wish I never did, it must be assumed that I am having another tough NFL season. I must have been forced to reload more than I wanted to sure. But I lose alot of money and might be the next sbr gambler of the year.

I cannot help you with these issues...save it for the shrink...

**falconticket** · 12-01-10, 10:50 PM

Another example where actual brain ( intelligent brain) out performs system and stats again. ( Shrink 3 times a week, who the fuk are you Tony Soprano?)

**G's pks** · 12-01-10, 11:09 PM

The poor guy...its worse than I thought...large bills for a specialist and even worse...a bad case of gambling fever!

**statnerds** · 12-02-10, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

Here is your chance Rock Star.

I won't even request the entire card.

Pick any 8 games you want this week and forecast the TOs.

C'mon cool guy, shut me up with your amazing prognostication skills.

That or STFU, whichever is easier.

Wow, another loud mouth fukk without the balls to back it up

G'spicks, did we just find your ghost?

**G's pks** · 12-02-10, 09:26 PM

you quoted yourself!

**TheLock** · 12-03-10, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

dig up the thread....

This is fun...

another one that has not hit a winner in two years!

I've been busy with my career but I'll dig up the thread when I get time. Shouldn't be hard to find because you've bought several points on a spread on more than one occasion.

**G's pks** · 12-03-10, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by TheLock

I've been busy with my career but I'll dig up the thread when I get time. Shouldn't be hard to find because you've bought several points on a spread on more than one occasion.

find it yet?

**statnerds** · 12-04-10, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by TheLock

I've been busy with my career but I'll dig up the thread when I get time. Shouldn't be hard to find because you've bought several points on a spread on more than one occasion.

I don't remember that being a thread. I remember him having it above his avatar. Don't remember the team, but it was +6 -200.

But then again, he is the stalker, not me.

**statnerds** · 12-04-10, 08:13 AM

Attn: Bogart45

Place those amazing turnovers predictions here:

Unless, like the other loser fukks on SBR, you are waiting til the game ends to show me how smart you are.

Thanks, can't wait to use those. Should make picking SU winners a breeze.

**Robber** · 12-07-10, 04:29 PM

im ready.

**D3 Mighty Ducks** · 12-07-10, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

Is it Thursday yet? I'm still waiting for that Patriot letdown

Still waiting...