Who is ready for a Patriots let down Thursday?

[G's pks]

It's a guessing game

for this guy yes...and another loss....

Statnerd you forgot to look up the fact NE scores alot!

[jjgold]

Brady just too fukkin good
Detroit also just self destructs every game

[statnerds]

So much for the 30th ranked D huh?

They gave up 400+ yards again. Or were the first 54 minutes of the game garbage time again?

It's funny, when it was 24-24, Brady had played a perfect to that point and the Pats were winning TO battle 1-0 and were still tied with a 2-8 team.

Should change the name from SBR to MMQB, for all the Monday Morning Quarterbacks. I love that it was so close and in doubt that none of you posted til NE went up 21.

Do you really think that

A. Brady will perfect every game

B. They will go +2 turnovers or better every game?

I really hate giving out free information, but you clueless fukks are too fukkin stoopit to do anything with it anyway. Teams that win ITS win SU 69% of the time and win ATS 64% of the time. So, when you realize the Pats have been outgained 7 of 11 games this season, what should their record be? I'm just trying to save you money and frustration when this team doesn't win the Superbowl. They have played 3 perfect games in a row, absolutely perfect. And if Manning goes for OT instead of the win, Colts may have won the game. They were in FG range, but Peyton gets greedy and goes for the win. I guess conservative isn't his style. No one is doubting they can score. The problem is they can't keep other teams from scoring. Was there any reason for that game to be a 7 point game with 6 minutes to play? Not if this 8-2 team was as dominant as everyone thinks and says playing a 2-8 team with a BACK-UP QB...

To just ignore their defense is plain retarded.

And to bash me, on a play that the market said had a FVL of 6.5, based on the result of one game is to bash the entire market. You are basically saying you are smarter than the market. You are saying that the market is inefficient, despite the opinions of 10s of 1,000s of speculators. Furthermore, you are saying that you are so much smarter than the market that you wait until after results are known to prove it. Additionally, even with a back-up QB playing, the line was less than a TD. What does that tell you? It either tells you the true value of the Pats team, or it just makes you believe even more fervently that you are smarter than the market. I wonder which one it is.

[Vangel330]

brady gets mad, patriots always show up

[BeatTheJerk]

Every time I see this guy make a selection it's a loss.

[statnerds]

Brady just too fukkin good
Detroit also just self destructs every game

Hill's throwing motion is painful to watch.

The one thing he used to have going for him was he rarely turned the ball over. Coming into this season with 23 TDs sucks, but only 11 picks.

Coach I was sitting on +8 with Detroit down 14 and that fukk throws another pick. It wasn't like the D made a play, he just overthrew the WR by 12 yards.

How many good QBs are there in the NFL? 6? 7?

[statnerds]

Every time I see this guy make a selection it's a loss.

Do you have an idea how hard it is to keep winning when you start the season 20-7?

It is fukkin impossible.

[obamaismyuncle]

This is the game where a lot of people over-thunk it and thought Detroit had a chance, Pats -6.5 here.

[Wayne]

so another loud mouth fukk that missed out on the 19-14 posted plays.

I knew I was fukked on Cincy as that game might have been the biggest RLM of the day....that sukks. funny you weren't saying shit when it was 28-7 though.

Kind of like the pot calling the kettle black ,eh, poop stain?
No, I wasn't saying shit when the score was 28-7. I've been around this long enough to know to not make comments until the game is over.
And for the record, I didn't tail this or any other pick you have so eloquently offered here at SBR. I know a square when I see one.

[statnerds]

And for the record, I didn't tail this or any other pick you have so eloquently offered here at SBR. I know a square when I see one.

Fukk, you idiots still don't get it, do you?

I had Det +8, what was the closing #?

I had Saints Under 50.5, what was the closing #?

Time for all you bettors that never lose to answer the following:

What is the importance, if any, of beating the closing number?

[ChileCheese]

Fukk, you idiots still don't get it, do you?

I had Det +8, what was the closing #?

I had Saints Under 50.5, what was the closing #?

Time for all you bettors that never lose to answer the following:

What is the importance, if any, of beating the closing number?

Can someone explain to me why bettors like this still exist? If they win, they are smarter than you.
If they lose, They are a fukking sharp, they were on the right side of the line, they beat the closing numbers and everyone who won is god damn square so they dont care they lost every penny. These are sad people.

[jennahazeplays]

nnice W for the pats, saved me

[statnerds]

What is the importance, if any, of beating the closing number?

No takers?

Color me surprised by that (insert sarcasm here).

[statnerds]

So we can use more real world illustrations of beating the market

Carib had
C Mich +5
BGU +8
Neb 16.5

I can tell you I bet 2 of those. I can also tell you that in the real world both of the bets I placed would be -130 with the number I got.

[G's pks]

Do you have an idea how hard it is to keep winning when you start the season
0-7?

It is fukkin impossible.

So what is your record now 0-20?

[G's pks]

The line on BGu is 7...where are you getting 8?

In fact the other two lines are made up too!

[statnerds]

The line on BGu is 7...where are you getting 8?

In fact the other two lines are made up too!

Since you are apparently too fukkin clueless or lazy to actually read what is written:

CARIB!!!

[Bogart45]

Can someone explain to me why bettors like this still exist? If they win, they are smarter than you.
If they lose, They are a fukking sharp, they were on the right side of the line, they beat the closing numbers and everyone who won is god damn square so they dont care they lost every penny. These are sad people.

[jcadwell]

i thought it was going to happen for a little while there... too bad, i hate the patriots

[phillybadboy]

this guy always loses

[uhuhahah]

Every time I see this guy make a selection it's a loss.

he is so good at wrong side

[G's pks]

this guy always loses

[G's pks]

but he got a good number in losing!

[Wayne]

but he got a good number in losing!

Do you think it was the closing number??

[chelle0113]

i think the pats are playing GREAT! defense needs a lil work...they are 8-2...

[statnerds]

Can someone explain to me why bettors like this still exist? If they win, they are smarter than you.
If they lose, They are a fukking sharp, they were on the right side of the line, they beat the closing numbers and everyone who won is god damn square so they dont care they lost every penny. These are sad people.

Win or lose, I will be smarter than you.

You really need to stop viewing investing in the outcome of sporting events with such a personal slant. You are clearly blinded by your disdain for me to learn anything. Check the winning threads from last week. About 50 views and 3 replies. But post one loser and the 'smart' people fire up the Commodore 64s and get the keyboard sticky. So unless you can remove the emotional aspect from betting, you are fukked.

There is no right or wrong side to a game. Here, let's start with the basics. If you can grasp this, there may be hope:

You cannot judge a line based on the outcome of the game.

If you get that, great. You might have a chance to beat the odds and turn a profit doing this.

If you don't get it, you have no chance at winning and have no idea who the fukk I am.

[G's pks]

Every time I see this guy make a selection it's a loss.

and add another losing night... starting to think this is iifold picks just as bad...

[slacker00]

Win or lose, I will be smarter than you.

Smartness is overrated. Winning is all that matters. Most intellectual elites are basically broke and/or insane.

[Chris7mccabe]

Well he did lose again

[Bogart45]

You cannot judge a line based on the outcome of the game.

You can when a team beats the spread by 2 TD's. You are acting as if NE was only up 3 points and with 30 seconds left Brady threw a TD to go up by 10. No last second antics, miracle plays, or ref screw ups lost this bet. It was a solid loss that was not in question. You need to get over the fact that Det had the game covered at halftime and realize that Det is just not good enough to hang with NE for a full 60 minutes, and realize that NE's offense is red hot right now and was going against one of the worst secondaries in the league. But maybe you are too much of a bonehead to do that.

When you carry on like you are doing, it doesn't matter what your previous record is. It just makes you look dumb.

[statnerds]

You can when a team beats the spread by 2 TD's. You are acting as if NE was only up 3 points and with 30 seconds left Brady threw a TD to go up by 10. No last second antics, miracle plays, or ref screw ups lost this bet. It was a solid loss that was not in question. You need to get over the fact that Det had the game covered at halftime and realize that Det is just not good enough to hang with NE for a full 60 minutes, and realize that NE's offense is red hot right now and was going against one of the worst secondaries in the league. But maybe you are too much of a bonehead to do that.

First, thank you for at least responding, as most seem to want to ignore the questions.

The result doesn't matter. Even if the spread was still in play with 6 minutes to play in the game, as it was, the outcome still does not reflect if the line was accurate or not. And everything you mentioned above is already factored into the line. That is why we talk about the Market being efficient.

If the Lions would have won the game outright, it still would not have been a fair measurement of the accuracy of the line. I only suggest here that we all stop focusing on the results of ONE contest.

One contest is the same as one sample. If we looked at the last 150 games with a line of 7, the dogs cover slightly more than the faves. But that is only 150 games. It makes little sense to draw conclusion on the likelihood of a dog covering a spread based on a sample of 150 games. Likewise, it makes even less sense to use the result of a random sample of ONE of these 150 games to determine if the line was accurate.

There is no right side or wrong side to a game.

There is the efficiency of the Market.

[Limey]

Nerds, what do you mean by the efficiency of the market? Do you mean that the market will, over a large sample size, produce a line that is somewhere close to the outcome of games?

[statnerds]

Nerds, what do you mean by the efficiency of the market? Do you mean that the market will, over a large sample size, produce a line that is somewhere close to the outcome of games?

I hate when people answer questions with questions, but what do you make of the following?

Over the last 2,200+ games, faves with a line between -1 and -10.5 are 1,130 - 1,133 ATS.

That number should sober up anyone thinking they can beat the Market long term.

Amazing the Market came up with a damn near perfect distribution when some contend it isn't efficient at all.

So if we can use the above number to at least suggest an efficient market, we can then start paying attention to how much books charge to move off or on numbers, or the true price of a Teaser bet. Put all of that together and you can get an idea of the expected distribution on each Line.

[Limey]

OK, so your answer to my question is "No, the market doesn't result in lines that are close to the actual outcome of the game".... ?

I'm ignorant in this area but the above seems like a lot of work and head-acheing mathematics just to prove that the spread largely results in about 50% winners/losers in either direction. I find it more interesting that the actual results of games are not very often close to the spread, and frequently miles off.

Hmm, I'm really really just thinking out loud, rarely a good idea.

[statnerds]

OK, so your answer to my question is "No, the market doesn't result in lines that are close to the actual outcome of the game".... ?

No, the answer to your question is yes. I'm not doing the work for you though. The math is completely simplistic, obviously, if I can do it.

Even if we just look at yesterday's games and see that 23 of the teams covered the 6 point tease, or blindly teasing every team would have hit 77%, we get an idea of how efficient the market is. But again, 15 games is way too small a sample. I can help get you started. Of course my data only covers the last 9 years, but if you teased every favorite of 4.5 points, you would have covered 77% of them.

We assume the Market is efficient because nearly every piece of information that can be known about a contest is known, and is already factored into the line: injuries, weather, stats, pretty much anything you can think of. It is all baked into the line already.

And don't forget that in those games I mentioned above, 1,130 - 1,133 ATS, that the house holds an edge of 4.54%.